Rio de Janeiro, Delray Beach, and Marseille previews and predictions

This week won’t make the same headlines that the previous seven days delivered, as Roger Federer’s return trip to the No. 1 ranking is now complete. Still, another jam-packed trio of February tournaments will offer plenty to whet the appetite of tennis fans. The Golden Swing continues in Rio de Janeiro, where Marin Cilic, Dominic Thiem, and Gael Monfils are among those in action. Juan Martin Del Potro, Jack Sock, and Milos Raonic are part of the Delray Beach field, while Stan Wawrinka and Tomas Berdych headline the Marseille draw.

Rio Open

Where: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Surface: Clay
Points: 500
Prize money: $1,695,895

Top seed: Marin Cilic
Defending champion: Dominic Thiem

Draw analysis: Cilic may be the No. 1 seed, but Thiem is the obvious title favorite—just as he is at any clay-court tournament that does not involve Rafael Nadal. The sixth-ranked Austrian kicked off his Golden Swing with a title in Buenos Aires, where he did not surrender a single set the entire way. That is nothing new for Thiem, who triumphed at this Rio de Janeiro event in 2017 without losing a set or even being pushed to a tiebreaker throughout the whole week. There is no reason to think anyone in the bottom half of this year’s draw will be able to push him, unless Fabio Fognini advances to the semifinals and wakes up on the correct side of the bed this coming Saturday. Fognini, though, is opening against Brazil’s own Thomaz Bellucci and could run into either Pablo Carreno Busta or Buenos Aires runner-up Aljaz Bedene in the quarters.

Cilic’s path looks far more difficult on paper. The world No. 3 likely awaits Monfils in the second round before a possible showdown against Diego Schwartzman in the quarterfinals. Schwartzman upset Cilic at last summer’s U.S. Open, and clay obviously gives the diminutive Argentine an even better chance against the 6’6’’ Croat. A relatively weak second quarter of the bracket should give either Albert Ramos-Vinolas or fellow lefty Guido Pella a prime opportunity to reach the semis.

First-round upset alert: Leonardo Mayer over (8) Fernando Verdasco. Verdasco leads the head-to-head series 3-0, but their previous encounters came in 2009, 2010, and 2014. At 34 years old, the Spaniard is nowhere near the prime of his career and these two veterans now find themselves close together in the rankings (Verdasco 40, Mayer 50). The Argentine is coming off a quarterfinal performance in Buenos Aires, whereas Verdasco got crushed in the second round by Pella.

Hot: Marin Cilic, Dominic Thiem, Tennys Sandgren, Aljaz Bedene

Cold: Pablo Carreno Busta, Pablo Cuevas, Fernando Verdasco, Thomaz Bellucci, Andreas Haider-Maurer, Victor Estrella Burgos

Quarterfinal predictions: Diego Schwartzman over Gael Monfils, Guido Pella over Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Fabio Fognini over Pablo Carreno Busta, and Dominic Thiem over Leonardo Mayer

Semifinals: Schwartzman over Pella and Thiem over Fognini

Final: Thiem over Schwartzman

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Delray Beach Open

Where: Delray Beach, Florida
Surface: Hard
Points: 250
Prize money: $556,010

Top seed: Jack Sock
Defending champion: Jack Sock

Draw analysis: Last year’s Delray Beach final between Sock and Raonic never happened (Raonic withdrew). This year’s first-rounder between Sock and Raonic also won’t happen. They were supposed meet in a blockbuster opener this week, but Nick Kyrgios withdrew on Sunday and the Canadian moved into Kyrgios’ spot in the draw as the new No. 9 seed. Now Sock is kicking off his campaign against qualifier John-Patrick Smith, while Raonic finds himself in the second quarter of the bracket with New York champion Kevin Anderson and Americans Donald Young and Steve Johnson. Sock’s draw still is not a great one, as he could go up against fellow Americans Ryan Harrison in the last 16 and John Isner in the quarters.

The most intriguing section of the bracket comes in the bottom half, where the winner of Adrian Mannarino vs. Jared Donaldson will face the winner of Ivo Karlovic vs. Denis Shapovalov in round two. New York runner-up Sam Querrey is also nearby, but there is no rest for the weary because Querrey has to get right back in action versus Taylor Fritz—who has already enjoyed plenty of Challenger circuit success in 2018. Del Potro, meanwhile, may have to get through big-hitting battles with Jeremy Chardy and Frances Tiafoe before potentially meeting Australian Open semifinalist Hyeon Chung in the last eight.

First-round upset alert: Jared Donaldson over (7) Adrian Mannarino. Donaldson would have a better chance in this one if Mannarino had reached the New York final, thus meaning one less day of rest, but the Frenchman fell to Querrey 6-7(5), 7-5, 6-3 in the semis. Still, it was a long week for Mannarino; whereas Donaldson will be well-rested on the heels of an opening loss in New York to Karlovic. The 21-year-old American is 1-0 lifetime at the ATP level against Mannarino (a straight-set win last season in Madrid) and 1-1 overall.

Hot: Kevin Anderson, Hyeon Chung, Ryan Harrison, Radu Albot

Cold: Jack Sock, John Isner, Milos Raonic, Reilly Opelka, Mikhail Youzhny, Steve Johnson

Semifinal predictions: Ryan Harrison over Kevin Anderson and Denis Shapovalov over Hyeon Chung

Final: Shapovalov over Harrison

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Open 13

Where: Marseille, France
Surface: Indoor hard
Points: 250
Prize money: 645,485 Euros

Top seed: Stan Wawrinka
2017 champion: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (not playing)

Draw analysis: Marseille is sorely lacking this week, surpassed in prestige even by Delray Beach. Last year, Kyrgios was part of this field along with Monfils, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Alexander Zverev. Now Kyrgios is hurt, Monfils is playing in Rio de Janeiro, Zverev presumably feels he is too good for a small 250-point event, and even David Goffin—who had been the No. 1 seed—withdrew after sustaining a freak eye injury in the Rotterdam semifinals. Following Goffin’s post-draw pullout, Roberto Bautista Agut slid into the Belgian’s spot atop the bracket and Karen Khachanov took the Spaniard’s place as the other seed in the first quarter. Bautista Agut and Khachanov are now on a collision course for the quarterfinals instead of round two. Also in the top half of the draw is Berdych, whose road to the semis looks just about perfect for his liking.

Nobody is sitting prettier in a weak bottom half than Lucas Pouille, who already has one title under his belt on the indoor hard-court swing (Montpellier). Wawrinka is the other recipient of a first-round bye, and by his own admission the Swiss is woefully out of shape as he comes back from a significant knee injury. The winner of a first-round showdown between Gilles Muller and Daniil Medvedev is a more likely semifinal opponent for Pouille, whose quarter includes not much more than Filip Krajinovic, Joao Sousa, and Gilles Simon.

First-round upset alert: Daniil Medvedev over (6) Gilles Muller. For the second time in as many weeks, Muller and Medvedev will be going head-to-head in the first round. They just faced each other in Rotterdam, where Medvedev prevailed 6-4, 7-6(9) on his way to the quarterfinals. The 22-year-old Russian is a stellar 8-3 this season, while Muller heads into Marseille with a modest 4-5 mark.

Hot: Lucas Pouille, Daniil Medvedev, Maximilian Marterer

Cold: Stan Wawrinka, Mischa Zverev

Semifinal predictions: Lucas Pouille over Gilles Muller and Tomas Berdych over Karen Khachanov

Final: Berdych over Pouille

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Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!