The 2025 tennis season is less than a week away, so it’s time to make predictions for the prestigious field of eight at the annual Nitto ATP Finals. Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, and Alexander Zverev are obviously among the favorites to make it to Turin. But there are also plenty of question marks–guys who could fall out of the running after qualifying in previous years and others who could break through for the first time.
Here are my Turin picks for 2025, in order.
1. Carlos Alcaraz – Alcaraz is the most talented player on tour–yes, even ahead of the top-ranked Sinner. It is consistency (as he was saw this past year from Sinner) that is the real key to being No. 1, but consistency is something that shouldn’t elude Alcaraz for much longer. After all, he is an absolute force on all three surfaces. At only 21 years old, the Spaniard has already won Grand Slams on a hard court, clay, and grass. If Alcaraz can lose just a little bit of his showmanship–which too often results in poor shot selection–without negatively impacting the charisma with which he plays, he should be able to regain the top spot.
2. Jannik Sinner – If it’s a borderline tie between Alcaraz and Sinner when all things are equal, the uncertainty surrounding Sinner’s doping case is the tiebreaker that knocks him down to No. 2. No one currently knows if or for how long the Italian will be suspended in 2025, but the smart money is on him missing at least a couple of important tournaments–albeit perhaps not any majors. Whatever the case, any missed time could be too much for him to stay ahead of Alcaraz. Still, Sinner was simply unbelievable in 2024 and—barring an extended absence because of suspension—has every reason to keep getting better.
3. Daniil Medvedev – Alcaraz, Sinner, and Novak Djokovic shared the Grand Slams in 2023 and 2024, leaving Medvedev to fly a bit under the radar. Of course, Medvedev also has himself to blame. The Russian did not win a single tournament this past season, a drought that began with failing to close out a two-set lead against Sinner in the Australian Open final. That Medvedev still comfortably qualified for the Nitto ATP Finals without lifting one trophy is a testament to his consistency. At 28 years old, Medvedev is still in his prime and should be poised for a bounce-back performance in 2025.
4. Alexander Zverev – Nobody has more pressure on him than Zverev for 2025, and it all comes down to winning a major. For the second time in his career, the 27-year-old came within one set of accomplishing that feat—but he could not maintain a two sets to one lead over Alcaraz in the French Open final. Zverev still did extremely well to finish the season at No. 2, but all that matters at this point is securing that elusive Grand Slam title. The German is certainly good enough to get the job done, but it will only get more and more difficult as time runs out, the pressure mounts, and—it sounds scary—Alcaraz and Sinner keep getting better. If the drought continues, Zverev could drop a bit from his current spot.
5. Novak Djokovic – Having captured the gold medal at the Paris Olympics, Djokovic has pretty much achieved everything throughout his illustrious career. Now—at 38 years old—the question is how motivated he will be to continued grinding in 2025 and beyond. The slams undoubtedly still pique his interest, and success at those events alone will probably be enough to put Djokovic in the top five at the end of the year. But will he play a busy enough schedule to be any better than No. 5? That seems unlikely…unless he wins multiple majors.
6. Taylor Fritz – Fritz has done it rather quietly (aside from a breakthrough run to the 2024 U.S. Open final), but he is up to No. 4 in the rankings. While the 27-year-old American has always been one of the best ball-strikers on tour, his movement has improved dramatically over the past couple of seasons. His serve that was once merely a great shot has become one of the best on tour. There remains a limit to Fritz’s potential, as we saw in a blowout loss to Sinner in the title match at Flushing Meadows and a whole host of other losses to higher-ranked opponents. But there is no reason why he can’t make a return trip to Turin.
7. Stefanos Tsitsipas – There are a couple of new factors that could work in Tsitsipas’ favor this coming season. His dad is no longer his coach and he heads into the year with basically zero expectations. Tsitsipas was kind of forgotten in 2024, as he didn’t do anything at any of the four Grand Slams and slumped to No. 11 in the world. However, the Greek is too good to stay down for too long. It’s also important to note that the there so few tournaments on Tsitsipas’ worst surface (grass) and so many on his best surface (clay) that he is always handed plenty of opportunities for success. It’s not like I have the utmost confidence in him right now, but Alcaraz and Sinner could hog such a huge number of points—just like they did in 2024—that it may not require too many to secure one of the last few places in Turin.
8. Tommy Paul – Paul’s ceiling may be lower than everyone else’s on this list, but his floor is quite high. The American’s game is incredibly rock solid and it works very well on all three surfaces. Paul finished the season at a career-high ranking of 12th and if not for an ankle injury sustained in his opening match in Miami that sidelined him for a month, he could have qualified for the year-end championship. Despite not possessing a ton of firepower, Paul has become one of my top 10 favorite players to watch; he is a master tactician and an absolute surgeon on the tennis court. He could become a top-10 player, too.
Alternates
9. Holger Rune – As I predicted, Rune missed out on the Nitto ATP Finals in 2024 after peaking as high as No. 4 in the rankings during the 2023 campaign. Both physically and mentally, the Dane could not quite sustain a high enough level over the course of 10 months. Now 21 years old, maturity—and consistency—should be on the way. Improvement can be expected in 2025, but I’m not sure it will be enough to carry him back to Turin.
10. Ben Shelton – Fritz enjoyed somewhat of a breakthrough in 2024 and I think it’s a trend that could continue for the USA. I wouldn’t be shocked if three Americans finish the year in the top 10 (Frances Tiafoe and Sebastian Korda also have a chance in addition to Fritz, Paul, and Shelton). Shelton’s booming serve and forehand make him dangerous on any given day and on any surface. If his backhand improves just a little bit, his rise is imminent.
who ya got in Turin?