Predictions for the 2022 Nitto ATP Finals field

It’s the first week of January , and that means it’s time to make predictions for the prestigious field of eight at the annual Nitto ATP Finals.

The 2021 installment, which was the first in Turin following a 12-year run in London, continued an apparent passing of the torch from the Big 3 to the next generation of champions. Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer were absent, while Novak Djokovic lost to Alexander Zverev in the semifinals. Zverev went on to capture the title–his second at the year-end championship–by beating Medvedev in the final.

Djokovic, Medvedev, and Zverev are heavy favorites to make a return trip to Turin. Who will join them there? Let’s take a look!

1. Novak Djokovic – Djokovic finished No. 1 in 2021 for a record-breaking seventh time. Now 34, the Serb is showing no signs of slowing down on the court. His only problems are off of it — and his 2022 campaign is starting with a whole lot of them Down Under. Nonetheless, you can’t look past the fact that he won three of the four Grand Slams last season. If he can win just two this year, he should march into Turn with a comfortable grip on No. 1.

2. Daniil Medvedev – Medvedev hasn’t figured things out on clay and grass to the extent that he can surpass Djokovic in the rankings, but he is an absolute force on hard courts. In 2021 the Russian reached both hard-court major finals, famously denying Djokovic of the calendar-year Grand Slam at the U.S. Open. Medvedev’s durability is impressive, too, so another injury-free season should keep him in the top two.

3. Alexander Zverev – Once borderline hopeless at the slams, it finally feels like Zverev’s breakthrough is coming. Although the German didn’t reach a major final like he did in 2020, he reached the semis of two and lost to Djokovic in the Australian Open quarters while finishing last season ranked third. Zverev’s triumph in Turin has him poised for even more success in 2022.

4. Andrey Rublev – Rublev wore out down the stretch last season, which you can’t really blame him for following all of the tennis — due to all of the winning — that he played in 2020 and 2021. Is the relative slump a sign of things to come or simply a temporary hiccup? I’ll take the latter. Rublev has more offensive firepower than just about anyone on tour, and that’s how you win these days. A slam may be elusive, but the Russian can be consistent enough to finish top four.

5. Matteo Berrettini – Berrettini’s heartbreaking exit from the year-end event at home in Italy was the worst moment of the 2021 Nitto ATP Finals — by far. Redemption will come in 2022. What you have to love about Berrettini is that he is great on all three surfaces. That gives the Wimbledon runner-up an opportunity to rack up chunks of points every single week of the season.

6. Rafael Nadal – Picking Nadal at No. 6 isn’t really a knock on him. He is 35 years old, and for much of his career nobody expected him to even be playing at this point. The Spaniard is still capable of adding more French Open titles to his haul, but the chances of him getting through a full season without any significant physical problems are slim to none. That’s why he doesn’t get the edge over the younger guys.

7. Jannik Sinner – Sinner was waiting in the wings for a chance to play in front of the home crowd last fall, and Berrettini’s exit opened the door. The 20-year-old made the most of it, crushing Hubert Hurkacz before falling to Daniil Medvedev in a third-set tiebreaker. Sinner is firmly on the rise, so look for him to 100 percent earn his way into Turin this time around.

8. Carlos Alcaraz – Alcaraz is my sleeper pick for 2022. Granted, he isn’t much of a sleeper; he’s just an underdog in terms of possible Nitto ATP Finals qualification. But why not? The 18-year-old Spaniard made a run to the 2021 U.S. Open quarters, upsetting Tsitsipas in the process in what was one of the best matches of the season. Alcaraz remained in fine form thereafter, including complete domination the NextGen ATP Finals.

Alternates

9. Stefanos Tsitsipas – Tsitsipas is starting the season with a somewhat concerning elbow injury. Moreover, his results have been a disaster since losing the French Open final to Djokovic. The Greek is too good not to be in the mix, but don’t be surprised if he misses out.

10. Taylor Fritz – Fritz was on fire at the end of 2021. He is up to No. 23 in the world and would be ranked even higher if not for a knee injury at the French Open. At 24 years old, the American is due for a breakout performance in 2022.