The only thing tougher than predicting the year-end championship field is predicting who will actually play in the tournament. For example, both Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro comfortably qualified for London in 2018 but were unable to take the court. Injuries seem to be a major story every season on the ATP Tour and 2019 is unlikely to be any exception, as Nadal, Del Potro, and Andy Murray all come in with question marks.
Will the aforementioned trio get back on track this season? Will Novak Djokovic continue his recent dominance? Is Roger Federer still going strong at 37 years old? Can Alexander Zverev maintain momentum from his triumph at the O2 Arena?
Those questions—and more—will soon be answered; so it’s time to predict the 2019 Nitto ATP Finals eight-man field…in order.
1. Novak Djokovic – There’s no other reasonable pick for the top spot in 2019. Djokovic got healthy in 2018, and when he did it was all but over for everyone else. The 31-year-old Serb captured back-to-back Grand Slam titles and finished No. 1 in the world with room to spare. Given that the Australian Open is his favorite of the four majors, Djokovic should continue to separate himself from the pack in the early stages of this season.
2. Alexander Zverev – I picked Zverev to miss the 2018 year-end championship and naturally he not only qualified for the event but also won the whole freaking thing. The same mistake will not happen twice. Unlike last season, the 21-year-old German heads into this one as something other than a stick figure from a physical standpoint and he at least has some success at slams under his belt (a quarterfinal run at the 2017 French Open).
3. Roger Federer – Federer finished the 2018 campaign at No. 3 in the world. Can he deliver the same goods in 2019 at 37 years old? Most if not all players would have already taken a step back by now. Federer isn’t most players, and there is no real reason to think that 37 will be his wall. The Swiss always creates a flawless schedule for himself and another inevitable skipping of the clay-court swing will ensure freshness and health throughout the season.
4. Dominic Thiem – Putting Thiem at No. 2 in my 2018 year-end predictions didn’t work out entirely well, but it also wasn’t totally off the mark. Zverev’s rise and the continued ability of Federer and Nadal to defeat Father Time simply prevented the Austrian from taking the next step. Thiem’s own shortcomings had something to do with it, but he at least showed marginal improvement on hard courts. It’s by no means time to dive headlong off the bandwagon.
5. Rafael Nadal – This is not necessarily the beginning of the end for Nadal, but a small step back may be endured. The 32-year-old Spaniard rarely gets through a full season unscathed in terms of injuries and that’s even when he begins with a clean bill of health. He isn’t beginning 2019 in top shape, so skepticism among his fan-base only makes sense. Still, more domination of the clay-court swing will keep Nadal well inside the top eight.
6. Kevin Anderson – Anderson is basically the second coming of Marin Cilic but without a Grand Slam title. He isn’t the most exciting player on tour, but he has a huge serve, moves well for a big guy, and has no obvious weakness. Like Cilic, he should be a staple of the top 10—and a staple of London—for years and years. Although another major final may be too much to ask, Anderson’s impressive consistency will likely continue.
7. Borna Coric – All signs point to this being the breakout season for Coric. He is 22 years old, was an alternate for London in 2018, recently led Croatia to the Davis Cup title, and is a proven force on the big stage with wins in his budding career over Federer (twice), Nadal (twice), Murray (twice), Del Potro, and Stan Wawrinka. Coric has been to multiple finals on both hard courts and clay and has won a title on grass, so he is capable on every surface.
8. Grigor Dimitrov – Dimitrov is talented enough to win slams. Although that probably won’t happen in 2019, the least he can do is make it back to the Nitto ATP Finals—a tournament he actually won in 2017. The 27-year-old plunged to 19th in the world this season, but some of that had to do with a whole host of terrible draws. Dimitrov has always stayed healthy and he is generally at his best during the Australian summer, so a hot start would restore confidence.
Alternates
9. Karen Khachanov – Khachanov and Coric were the two London alternates this past season; both could be part of the real thing in 2019. Also 22 years old, the Russian wrapped up his 2018 campaign with a surprising run to the Paris Masters title—upsetting Djokovic in the final.
10. Marin Cilic – Cilic is into his 30s (right on the number) and he has slipped just a bit to seventh in the rankings. The Croat had no trouble qualifying for London again in 2018, but he did it quietly other than his initial run to the Aussie Open title match.
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who ya got?
I’d replace Dimitrov with Khachanov and I’d throw one more young player in the mix. I’ll resist the urge to say Tsitsipas, but you know I want to. Agree on Coric and Zverev…and possibly not Anderson, but I only say that because I have doubts that he’ll repeat his Wimbledon performance.
I also have a feeling this is the year Federer doesn’t make it. Bad for tennis, but the guy IS 37 years old, and there is only so much one can expect from one’s body.
Rafa played nine tournaments in 2018 and still finished comfortably at #2 which is a record. He’s going to have to have a major and very badly timed injury to do worse. If he can be healthy for the European clay court season he’ll be back at #2. If not, he’ll slide down, maybe lower than 5 but not out of the top 8. He never has and he’s playing better than he did in 2014 – 2016. Way better. Djokovic’s health – mental and physical – is not guaranteed by any means. Roger is a big question mark. He may look great again, but he was anything but clutch last year. He lost some very close big matches – the kind he used to win.
Not that sure re Coric. He scored a couple of big wins over Fed, but Fed wasn’t exactly being Fed. Ditto for his previous wins over Nadal – Rafa was carrying injuries. He struggled vs Tiafoe in Davis Cup at home.
IF – very big IF – Zverev can finally step up at the slams he could be #1. He’s very solid the rest of the time and can play on any surface. I don’t like him – he’s an arrogant prick – but he’s #3 and has done pretty poorly at the majors. Add in one win and some end of the week appearances and he’ll be tough to beat.
1) Rafa if he’s healthy;
2) Sasha if he can win a slam;
3) Djoko, I doubt he’s going to win more than one slam;
4) Delpo, if he’s fully fit the whole year, giving allowance for not doing well at AO as just comes back from injury;
5) Cilic, provided he’s not too bothered by his knee injury;
6) Thiem, if he’s still doing well on clay and improves on HCs too;
7) Kei, as he’s too good overall not to improve on his 2018 rankings, provided no more injuries;
8) Khachnov, new entry into TOP ten (and eight), as he’s the most promising among the next gen, after Sasha;
9) Fed, (reluctantly as I can’t think of a Tsitsipas or a Coric doing better than Fed);
10) Anderson, may not do better than his 2018 but still able to hang in there in the top ten.
Tsitsipas, Coric, Dimi, Medvedev will he hovering just outside top ten I think. Goffin too, and Raonic.
I think roger will still make to London. Not sure about Cilic and kei. I also think that the top20 will be similar to the top20 of this year.
Rafa at 1 and Fed at 9. Why am I not surprised 😂 (just teasing lol)
Hypothetical situation Benny .
Nadal IF he’s healthy…😄
Sadly, that qualifier applies to every player these days…Djokovic, Federer, Murray, DelPotro, Cilic, Berdych, Nishikori, Raonic, Tsonga, Monfils. It’s not just Rafa any more. They’ve all struggled with injuries in the last few years. Plus there are talented younger guys out there that can’t even get off the challenger tour because they keep getting hurt.
In the womens, same story. Im beginning to wonder whats the point in trying to predict matches any more , or even have a favourite player.
Delpos pulled out of the AO ….
1.Novak-he’s playing well and will win enough to qualify
2. Sasha-he has shown consistency and will probably win a couple big tournaments to qualify
3. Thiem-he a good player and the amount of matches he plays will qualify him
4.4 Rafa-whether he’s healthy or not, he will play all the clay court season, rack up points and qualify
5. Cilic-he is very consistent and will stay in the top 19. He flies under the radar, because his name isn’t Roger, Rafa, or Novak
6. Roger unless he loses early is any said tournament. If he does the rest of the year he will be spending his energies denying talks of retirement.
7. Anderson don’t know if he;ll be consistent, hope so, seems like a good guy
The rest, I don’t know, I guess we’ll see who breaks through or remains on top.