If Roger Federer pulls out of the French Open prior to late Friday morning, a significant wrench would be thrown into the draw ceremony. It would mean, of course, that Rafael Nadal would snag the No. 4 seed instead if the fifth spot and guarantee a meeting with Novak Djokovic no earlier than the semifinals. If Federer stays in, Djokovic and Nadal could potentially face each other in the Roland Garros quarterfinals for a second straight season.
The 34-year-old Swiss practiced in Paris on Wednesday, without confirming his status in either the affirmative or the negative for 2016’s second Grand Slam. As long as Federer remains in the mix, this will be one of the most highly-anticipated draw ceremonies in recent memory.
Here’s a look at five nerve-wracking storylines that will have journalists on the edge of their seats, fans praying for their favorites, players in denial about their hopes and fears, and Twitter teetering on the brink of explosion:
1) Where will Nadal land? Until we hear otherwise, it must be assumed that Federer will be a part of the proceedings. If that is the cace, Nadal will be a fifth seed for the fifth time this season. He has landed in Stan Wawrinka’s quarter on three occasions, Federer’s once (Federer ended up withdrawing from Madrid), and finally in Djokovic’s at the Rome Masters. While the nightmare scenario for Nadal is obvious, a No. 5 seed does not spell automatic doomsday. The nine-time Roland Garros champion could, for example, land in the third quarter of the bracket with either an injured Federer or a slumping Wawrinka as his 1-4 seed. That would set up a potential semifinal showdown against Andy Murray before a possible date with Djokovic in the title match.
2) Which 1-4 seeds will get Thiem and Monfils? There is some good news for Nadal if he stays at No. 5 instead of moving up to the fourth seed. Seeds 1-4 match up with 13-16 in the fourth round, while seeds 5-8 are on a collision course with 9-12. This is one of the rare occasions on which two players in the 13-16 pod are far more dangerous than anyone in 9-12 group. In fact, everyone seeded between 13 and 16 is in fine form. David Goffin was a semifinalist in both Indian Wells and Miami before recently double-bageling Tomas Berdych in Madrid. Roberto Bautista Agut is one spot behind Goffin at No. 10 in the race to London. But neither the Belgian nor the Spaniard has a ceiling as high as Dominic Thiem or Gael Monfils. Thiem owns the second most wins on tour this season and clay is unquestionably his best surface. From basically out of nowhere, Monfils has been motivated and nonsense-free throughout 2016. Either Thiem or Monfils would be a scary proposition for one of the top four players in the world in the last 16 at Roland Garros.
3) The case of Nick Kyrgios and one unlucky 9-16 seed. Has any player stood out more from the rest of his seeding group than Nick Kyrgios at this year’s French Open? Maybe not–given that Djokovic automatically goes into every bracket at the top and therefore is not technically part of any group. Consider this 17-24 pod: John Isner, Gilles Simon, Nick Kyrgios, Kevin Anderson, Benoit Paire, Bernard Tomic, Feliciano Lopez, and Viktor Troicki. Isner is never fun to play, but he has been hurt and out of form. Simon is a similarly frustrating opponent albeit for the complete opposite reason, but he has underwhelmed in 2016 and he does not love clay. Anderson has missed almost the entire year. Paire is Paire. Tomic is hopeless right now and despises the red stuff. Feliciano Lopez is maybe the only Spaniard on tour whose worst surface is clay. Troicki is slumping and–yep–dislikes the dirt. And then there’s Kyrgios. The 21-year-old Australian is 21-7 this season has won multiple matches in six of seven tournaments. He made a run to the Miami semifinals and the Madrid quarters. Although Kyrgios disappointed a bit at the Australian Open, he generally thrives on tennis’ biggest stages. Seven men in the 9-16 range are going to receive favorable third-round draws. As for the black sheep of that group who lands near Kyrgios in the draw, well…good luck!
4) Where will Wawrinka and Nishikori land? These situations are not quite as intriguing as Nadal’s status as the No. 5 seed, but both are important. Even with Wawrinka in borderline disastrous form ever since he triumphed in Dubai three months ago, he is still a far bigger threat than Federer at the moment. Neither Djokovic nor Murray will admit it, but they do not want to see Wawrinka in their half of the draw. ‘An injured Federer as a possible semifinal opponent? Yes, please.’ After all, Wawrinka is the defending Roland Garros champion. Who knows if a return to the scene of one of the two best moments in his career will rekindle the spark in his game? As for Kei Nishikori, he and Nadal are the clear-cut cream of the 5-8 crop. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, as usual, is a question mark due to physical problems. Berdych, the newly-anointed bagel boy, appears to be on his way out of the top 10 and just parted ways with coach Dani Vallverdu. The 1-4 seeds will be silently hoping to see either Tsonga or Berdych–not Nadal or Nishikori–fall in their quarter of the bracket.
5) The unseeded floaters. Alexander Zverev. Borna Coric. Andrey Kuznetsov. Fernando Verdasco. Leonardo Mayer. Grigor Dimitrov (hold the laughter). Thomaz Bellucci (hey, he just bageled Djokovic). Jiri Vesely (he just beat Djokovic). Those are some of the unseeded entrants whom a top player–or anyone, for that matter–may have to go up against in the first round. Heck, even running into Zverev in the second round would constitute a terrible draw at this point. With such an impressive contingent of floaters, upsets that aren’t really upsets could be plentiful during week one at Roland Garros.
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discuss
When did he end up in Kei’s quarter? Kei has been below him all season.
oh good catch. He was the 4 seed in Miami when he was with Nishikori. So this is the 5th time in 2016 that Nadal will be the 5th seed (if Federer doesn’t WD).
Ricky – Where will Kyrgios land sorry? Will he draw 1-4 in round 3 or 5-8?
Also this is exactly the reason I prefer Rafa to be 5. He can avoid Djokovic by luck and will definitely avoid Thiem.
Kyrgios can get anyone from 1-8 in round 4. He will get 9-17 in round 3.
KYRGIOS/MONFILS THIRD ROUND WOULD BE EPIC
Kyrgios and Thiem would also be awesome matchup.
I’d be there
Ok so Rafa cannot draw Thiem if he is no 5 and he can earliest draw Kyrgios in round 4?
Yep
Haha dimitrov isn’t even seeded. Hold the laughter? I can’t!! ?? funny thing is this is probably one of the first times in quite a while that he hasn’t been seeded at a slam which may cause him to have the least expectations or pressure he has had at a slam in a long time (not just cuz ranking of course but because well he’s not playing well) and with the right draw maybe he can make a run with an upset or two. On the other hand the draw could be ugly for him. One guy I have a good feeling about is Kuznetsov. For some reason I think he is gonna get a navigable draw kind of like Melbourne where his seeded second rounder was Chardy. Andrey is sneaky good this year and doesn’t deserve to get someone like Nole early imo. And if he gets a struggling top guy like Berdych or ferrer maybe I could definitely see an upset there. And zverev could make some noise here and score a big upset or patch of upsets as well. Like u said, he’s definitely a guy the top players will want to avoid drawing early. Hopefully his draw isn’t like the one he got in Melbourne this year lol.
Also I’m super excited to see how Nick does. I’m thinking he makes the second week. He’s in really good form and has seemed really focused. I definitely think he will build on last year’s third round performance and go further than that this year.
Great article Ricky. I can’t recall there ever being a Slam with quite so many variables. Your predictive skills will be tested to the limit 🙂
^^ I think that should be ‘prediction’ skills not ‘predictive’
Would love to know what Djokovic is thinking right now. After trying to win RG for nigh on 10 years and just when he was on the brink of achieving the feat of holding all four Slams simultaneously he finds himself having to negotiate a field littered with human land mines.
That he lost to Murray in Rome is not in itself particularly significant. What is concerning is his strange behaviour throughout the week which reached a crescendo on Sunday resulting in violent outbursts of temper and bitter exchanges with the chair umpire. Rome was not the first time either – it had happened several times since the AO but was not commented upon because still managed to save the day when he was on the brink of defeat.
He needs to recover his equilibrium in time for RG or he will be vulnerable to any number of on-fire players from day one.
Que sera, sera…whatever will be, will be…it’s the best to leave it to the destiny, ie, pure coincidence…the draw ceremony will be a climatic moment I see…I am going to follow it live…hope I don’t get a nervous breakdown…
I followed the draw ceremony live in 2009; to say it was far from straightforward is putting it mildly. Drawing the top 8 seeds was clear enough after that there was an avalanche of names woodshed in by computer, supposedly.
How can you follow it live??
Sometimes they provide a link on the official website but not always. You can google it and see if there is a link or maybe someone might give a link on one of the forums.
If you live in the UK it will be live from 10.30 am on Eurosport 1.
Louise (AT 7:30 AM)
You can watch it here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anXHKaxbRB4
At the end of the day, I just think it would be unfortunate for either Rafa or Djoker to knock each other out in the QF. The rest of the draw, I think Rafa can negotiate OK although I would rather he avoided ace machines in general even though he has a great record against them.
+1
Even if Rafa doesn’t win a single match at RG, Stan will have to reach the SF to be seeded 4 at Wimbledon after applying the Wimbledon formula.
foggy won’t be seeded will he?? he could be dangerous in the early rounds…
Amy,
I don’t think Fog can do much in s best of five set match. He may have beaten Andy in DC, but I think that was a one-off. He’s s veteran player who’s got game, but I don’t think he is consistent enough to be any real threat.
It’s true that he beat Rafa at last year’s USO, but that was not the real Rafa. I am not worried about him. I am more worried about guys like Thiem and Kyrgios and any of the big serving guys.
Some great story lines. Really hope Fed can play….and watch out for Goffin!!!
I would say less so in slam five-setters than other tournaments. Although he did take out Murray straight sets in a Davis Cup match which I think was on clay.
Yeah fog played awesome that day
I’ll say that again:
Even if Rafa doesn’t win a single match at RG, Stan will have to reach the Final to be seeded 4 at Wimbledon after applying the Wimbledon formula.
After deducting their RG 2015 points, Rafa will have 5315 points and Stan will have 4110 points. After adding their Grass points according to the Wimbledon formula, assuming neither of them wins any points at RG, Rafa will have 5529 points and Stan will have 4740 points; Rafa will now have 789 points more than Stan. Stan can only earn 720 points if he makes the SF so he’ll have to make the final to overtake Rafa even if Rafa gets no points from RG.
ed yes i saw that match and he really thrashed murray on clay. i am very nervous about rafa in the early rounds and don’t want foggy or players similar to foggy anywhere near him. actually think that the early rounds are the biggest threat to him – the fact is that he hasn’t got past the early rounds in the last 3 slams and he has been very nervous in the opening rounds of rg before.(remember when he was behind in the second set tie break to brands of all people! nearly going down 2 sets to love!!) the brands example also shows the real element of unpredictability as no one saw that as a danger!
“If Roger Federer pulls out of the French Open prior to late Friday morning, a significant wrench would be thrown into the draw ceremony.”
Correction: The wrench is already there (as it was last year). It can only be removed if Rafa gets his rightful place in the Top 4 seeds.
RG should have a clay formula similar to Wimbledon given just two mandatory ATP Masters events on clay.
The RG draw will be live on Eurosport 1 tomorrow at 11.30 am.
^^^That’s Paris time.
ricky,
Good job with the different potential stories coming out of this RG. I think this one will be especially interesting. We have some of the young guns making some noise in the sport. Thiem, Krygios and Raonic. Also Zverev ha shown real promise.
I am wondering if a dark horse will get through. However, with Murray playing well and Rafa coming back strong, I think it’s going to be harder. The early rounds are always dangerous and this year we might just see an upset or two.
Lots to look forward to!
Fed has withdrawn from RG.
Nick Lester (TV Commentator): “Roger Federer withdraws from Roland Garros having failed to recover in time from a back injury.”
https://twitter.com/nicklester/status/733317743005605888
I knew Federer would be on Rafa’s side.
So that means that Rafa will get the #4 seed.
I hope that Fed recovers soon. He has to do what is best for him and apparently that is what he did here. Hopefully he will be able to get back to playing soon.
My prediction is:
Djoker/Stan
Mooray/Rafa
I wish!
My prediction is not based on preference just what I feel will happen. Stan in Djoker’s half may work really well for him as Stan might not even make it that far.
so Montenegrin National TV was right from the start! They were the first to announce Fed’s withdrawal, knowing about it even before Fed himself made a decision… 🙂
Now rafa has to avoid thiem and nishikori (:-
Pray pray pray
I don’t see either Thiem or Nishi beating Rafa in a best of five set match.
Djoko drawing thiem and nishikori would be great 🙂
Did you forget Kyrgios?
Now, if only Nole would withdraw…
Forecast is cool and cloudy thru next Thursday.
Not good for Rafa’s traditional early round nerviness.
LOL!
I don’t think Novak will be withdrawing! Can’t have everything!
I go hope that Rafa does not meet Novak until the final.
Nadal will win whoever he comes up against. The match he played against nole, he could have won 2 love easily, as he was ahead in both sets. REMEMBER, he is near 100 percent, and this is the best at 5 format, of the game, On CLAY.
doubt it, but who knows
Roland Garros: “Gael Monfils withdraws from RG16 because of a bad virus.”
https://twitter.com/rolandgarros/status/733558062842183681
That is so sad… And it’s bad for tennis! LaMonf has just reached his good form, could have done a lot at the RG with the crowd support etc! So sorry about him…
That’s a shame of him and for the tournament; he is always good to watch.
so foggy get the last seed with 2 out???
Yes
When is the draw? How much time left?
The draw could all have been fixed in advance on the computer. Seems a little bit fishy to me. The organizers say they would like a French national to win either the men’s or women’s title so let’s see where the French players are placed.
could gachasson be more of a cartoon parody of a frenchman? he’s hilarious…..
it’s going to take ages to get through the women’s draw…
Rafa Novak semi.
rafa tsonga
rafa nole sf ffs!!!!
rafa thiem ffs!
stan has rosol first round haha!
Rosol has been playing well this week. I know it is only a 250 but if he keeps up this form he will be a headache in the early rounds. Stan has upped his level slightly but as defending champion he will be nervous in the early rounds – with any luck he could get risolled. 🙂
why do we want stan to lose ed?? i agree that it’s a real possibility but he is on the other side of the draw to rafa..
I could give you several reasons Amy!!!!!
But I don’t want to bring a ton of coals down on my head.
oh go on ed!! i won’t get cross i promise..
have just had a pop at hawks so no energy left for anything but tame agreement now…
The earlier Stan loses, the easier it is for Rafa to be seeded fourth for Wimby.
Stan can find his game on RG at any time and look out if he does!
I agree with ed, the sooner the better for CB to lose.
rafa has sam groth first round
rafa has both zverev and thiem in his quarter. they play each other and the winner plays him.
does thiem have a shot?? rafa had better have played himself into some form by then…
Both Thiem and Zev Minor have played a heck of a lot of tennis this year and the wear and tear is beginning to tell. Thiem is the fitter of the two but his level has dropped a bit in the past few weeks. Both will be serious contenders in the future but somehow I dont think it will be this year.
Amy,
I do not think that Thiem can best Rafa in a best of five set match. It could be interesting given that it is the early rounds and rafa will not be at his best. 🙂
i tend to agree with both of you. my fear isn’t so much about rafa’s opponents but about rafa imploding as he has done in the past and there being someone on the other side of the net who has the game to take advantage of that.
brown, foggy, nando are all shotmakers so i am not overly convinced by this argument that it is the big servers who are the threat to him. not on clay. the 3 players who have taken him out before are players who can catch fire and hit winners.
he should have stayed at #5 and avoided nole. would have played murray in quarters instead
same scenario as 2013
not necessarily
and playing Tsonga in the quarters is better
not as good as playing berdy!!
murray has nishi but his draw looks very easy early on
murray has had incredibly easy draws these last 3 tournaments…
I think novak’s draw is a piece of cake until the semis!
I agree about getting Tsonga in the quarters. We don’t even know if he will get there, but Rafa will not have trouble beating him.
he wont
feeling depressed.
Amy,
Don’t feel depressed! Hang in there! This will be a different Rafa this year. I know the early rounds can be tough, but just take it one match at a time!
nole gets berdy in qf easy peasy…will be fresh as a daisy…
Rafa’s quarter:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ci5JPzWXAAAF0vh.jpg
rafa even has foggy tucked in there as well…
zverev, thiem and foggy all there…
If nole meet nadal in the quarter finals that’s where his quest, for his first RG title ends. Andy currently is in form, more so than any other player , BUT BEATING NADAL AT RG in this form he is currently in, is a very very tall ask.
nole can’t play rafa in the quarters!
May I remind you that Novak just beat Nadal in straight sets, tough though the match was. There is no guarantee that he will lose to Nadal, unlike so many seem to think.
What “so many” lol. I see just one.
Horrible draw for Nadal
He gets Thiem, Djokovic, Foginini everybody
yeah am feeling depressed. could have to play foggy 3rd round then thiem fourth…
that’s very tough if he hasn’t got it together..
really isn’t fair. murray by contrast has had ludicrously easy draws for ages now.
Thiem, Fognini on Chartrier vs Rafa. So?
Much ado about nothing.
They will give him much needed rhythm. I’m glad he avoided so many servebots.
The worst thing about Rafa’s draw is next week’s weather forecast and his lurking mental problema.
it’s precisely his mental problema i am worried about. it’s because of that i wanted easy opponents early on.
Nah, ironically Rafa stresses more when he is heavy favourite during the early rounds IMO.
Let him get in shape.
@ hawks 1:18PM,
exactly!
When and where can one get a printable version of the complete draw. Nothing showing up yet on the ATP site.
This is why I said yesterday let Rafa be No 5. Avoiding Thiem is good..but now he gets Thiem and Foggy both.
3rd and 4th round can be super tricky.
Nole is sure shot to semi..no landmines at all.
yeah. i said earlier that he would have been better at #5. repeat of 2013.
Now may the force be with him and he win as in 2013 🙂
well said sanju!!! but so tough!! still foggy could go out early…thiem is unproven at gs level…may not be as bad as it looks…
It isn’t. Could have been much worse.
Amy,
Keep in mind that they have to get there to meet Rafa. Many times we stress about a potential opponent and it doesn’t happen.
Rafa could have had Novak in the quarterfinals. At least he won’t have to face him until the semis.
He played Fabio in 3rd round in 2013 too..
he played Nishikori in 4th round in 2013 who can be as tough as Thiem
He played Stan in QF in 2013 who can be Tsonga equivalent
Djoko in semi again like 2013
and to top lot of discussion around no 4, no 5 in 2013 too and so was it this year and he got No 4 seed both times.
sanju, what was his record in those matches?
just goes to show that the seeding formula is garbage. in 2013 rafa should have had the #2 seeding.
Thiem already played too much and is not going to beat Rafa in five sets…Fog can be a test if he meets Rafa but I doubt he can beat Rafa…and he won’t!
if Rafa gets to the semis he will be ready for Novak…
yeah but it would still be better if rafa was on the other side of the draw. best thing for the tourney is a rafole final.
Thiem or Fog aren’t beating Nadal over five sets on Chartrier.
Hope this helps.
probably be on lenglen.
in any case rafa is his own worst enemy early on as you know. that’s why i wanted easy opponents.
Shit. Forgot about Lenglen.
same to you. i am not the only person unhappy or saying it’s a tough draw so are sanju and ricky.
i’ve been talking about his mental problema since early last year so i don’t have to apologise for worrying that it is going to come to the fore early on again.
Sorry?
Did I say something offensive amy?
My sincerest apologies if I offended you.
I just said that I forgot that he could be more susceptible on Lenglen and that I like the challenges in his quarter. Something like a vaccine. Exposed to weaker versions of Nole that should get him ready.
I think he needs that.
Again, sorry if I said something wrong to you.
It was not my intent at all.
I think all easy opponents in his qtr could actually backfire on him (as it might just do for Nole).
But I respect everyone’s opinions on tennis even if I don’t necessarily agree.
ok sorry hawks. i thought you were having a go at me.
i’ve been ill yet again and was up nearly all night so am not myself.
if i hadn’t been up nearly all night i wouldn’t have even been commenting here and it wasn’t a great idea as the draw looked horrible from my sleepless perspective.
namaste!
namaste to you too amy 🙂
I can see where he has tricky opponents and can see where you’re coming from.
I just think given the respective draws in each corner, these earlier challenges might just be what the (armchair) doctor ordered to get him battle hardened for a potential Rafole SF.
I would never intentionally have a go at you Amy.
🙂
i blame fed!! obvious fix to stitch up rafa!
I blame that woman who did the draw
did you hear gachasson?! introduced her and then changed the introduction to ‘la JOLIE marie….’
parody of cartoon frenchman
LOL!
I don’t think losing in the SF or final is any different to the top guys. The title is all they are interested in so if Rafa played Nole in the final they would be just as disappointed losing as they would had they played each other in the final.
I knew Rafa would land in the same half as Nole…if Rafa was No5 he would have gotten Nole in the quarters no question about it…this way at least Rafa gets to play good opponents, which is good for his game and if he is ready to beat those opponents he will be ready to beat Novak…
TBH I expected Rafa vs Novak semis…I am only grateful that it’s not quarters this time…
Tsonga by no means is equivalent to Stan on clay anyway…
Tsonga can be dangerous. Remember he had 2 match points against Novak in 2012 and even reached semis in 2013.
RG will always give Rafa worst draws.
I was also very sure it would be Rafa : Djokovic semis
tsonga’s game was always somewhat troublesome for Novak, not so much for Rafa…definitely not on clay…
also hard to play tsonga with the french crowd going nuts…he took out fed afterall…
yeah, but Tsonga has been dealing with injuries lately…doubt he is in form sufficient to beat Rafa…
Tsonga beat Fed when Fed had bad back.
Tsonga can’t beat Rafa BO5 on Chartrier.
sorry but i am very depressed by this draw. i wanted rafa to get some easy opponents early on and i didn’t want him near foggy and thiem. this is a very very tough draw and luck has as much to do with winning slams as ability.
very terrible draw
agreed. there is no sugar coating it.
foggy has to play granollers to get to play rafa. very good chance granollers will win. that would be good.
no. Fog is motivated when he sees Nadal’s name near his in the draw.
yes i know ricky. i am just clutching at straws to stave off depression…
normally granollers would have a great shot..
Granollers takes out Foggy and Zverev takes out Thiem..my wish 🙂
And yeah Berdy /Ferrer takes out Novak 🙂
not going to happen… 🙂
Sanju: That’s taking wishful thinking to a new level. :=)
But lets not forget..After AO 16 draw, we were all happy Rafa got a good draw..and see what happened..out in 1st round..I even went all the way to Australia, landed on the day he was packed and could not see him despite going all the way.
So draws can work out in their own funny way too.
How come no one is commenting on what an easy draw Novak has till semi? Why just Murray
BTW where has Kyrgios landed?
Kyrgios is with Nishi
My thinking is much the same as Natashao. Tough early rounds are better for Rafa than a cakewalk.
Overall Rafa is in a good place mentally: which is more than can be said for Nole.
#Always look on the bright side – tee dum tee dum
That’s the spirit, my dear ed! I also agree with your take on Rafa vs Novak mental state!
Vamos! Bring it on!
Agree with nats and ed.
Not at all unhappy with Rafa’s draw.
It’s just the balance he needs.
Would have preferred Nole in the final but not a big deal.
The full draw:
http://www.rolandgarros.com/en_FR/scores/draws/ms/msdraw.pdf
Thanks Gussie. Actually it had just occurred to me RG would probably be the first to publish the draw.
Dashing out now but will study it more closely when I get back.
I add the draw procedure.
If Rafa had been the 5th seed, he would have landed on line 32 or 64 or 65 or 97 of the draw. Now he is on line 33.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ci5csA2WkAAFfSq.jpg
What are you all worried about. NADAL has done it many times before, 9 intact. My people this is a major, not a 1000 or a500 .just like in 2013, returning form a long injury time off.Many of you, were making a fuss, will he be as good as before, well, he came back even better, snagging 10 titles, including RG and the US OPEN, AND WAS UNBEATEN, ON HARD COURTS .This time, he is returning from a spate of bad form, but now, after seeing him win two titles and having those recent results, particularly that very very close match with Nole, however one sided the score line may suggest, all are episodes leading up to one story, a 10th RG title. So no matter the pathway, it is a 10th GRAND SLAM.
@ Patrick,
beautiful post!
Well said PK. Rafa’s miraculous 2013 comeback rarely gets mentioned these days. It was a more impressive achievement than anything Nole has done IMO.
I am glad big hitters are not in Rafa’s quarter. they are tricky and the win is decided within several points which is not the kind of pressure I would like to see for Rafa! The players he will most likely meet are the kind of players that will require Rafa to develop his game, to build on each point, and will allow him getting the right rhythm. That is exactly what he needs to get ready for Novak in the semis. Easy draw would do him no good. I am also glad Nick is far away from Rafa… 🙂
meant to say big serving machines, not big “new brand tennis” hitters… 🙂
Agreed.
Also, I was concerned he’d get 2-3 hard servers with no rhythm prior to getting Nole and being unprepared.
Rafa will be a finely tuned engine should he get Nole in the semis.
Correction Hawks 🙂
That should read ‘IF Nole gets to the SF’. It’s my view that is not a given in the light of where his game is at right now. And I’m not just saying that because he lost to Andy in Rome.
should = if, no?
That said, even in Nole’s current state of mind which is seriously surreal IMO, over BO5, can’t see an upset in his quarter.
I agree with ed. It is not a given to assume that Rafa will get to the semis. That’s why I take it one match at a time!
Groth is a serve volleyer and a big server so Rafa needs to brush up on his ROS and passing shots.
Vamos Rafa!
There are many dangerous players in the qualies still to be slotted in, players who can beat anyone on their day. At least I know who Rafa’s first round opponent is going to be. It could have been the hyper-active Dustin Brown. Stepanek, Brand and Berlocq have also qualified. They can all give the anyone a run for their money.
Muzza has the hardest quarter. Glad Rafa didn’t get that one.
After 2nd round, he could face Ivo->Isner->Kyrgios/Nishi.
Even Stan’s quarter has little rhythm: Rosol->Klizan->Simon->Raonic.
Worse part about the draw is that Nole has ZERO problems before SF but even that could backfire if he goes from a cakewalk into a battle hardened fine-tuned Rafa.
TBH, all things considered, I’d pick Rafa’s quarter over any other.
Don’t want him playing conservatively against qualifiers and easy players first five rounds before running into Nole.
It will be the other way around should they meet.
@ hawks,
so true…I was thinking the same…If successful in his early encounters Rafa will be fine-tuned before possible meeting with Novak…
And almost equally, Nole won’t be.
Not so good having all easy rounds before running into the King of Clay.
Here is Groth in action, a glimpse of what Rafa has to play against, on clay!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OpiIe7_bRkc
“has” to play against? LOL.
Growth may be a big serving guy but I don’t think he has the physical and mental strength to hang with Rafa.
It’s almost impossible these days to avoid all challenging players. Overall, I think Rafa had some challenges, but his draw is doable.
Sorry, I meant Groth! Stupid autocorrect!
Jon WertheimVerified account
‏@jon_wertheim
For @DjokerNole no top-100 foe till R3. Likely 3r foe is ranked 33. Likely 4r is No.16. Lkely QF is No.8. Likely SF is ranked 5…Nice draw
Pau Ferragut ‏@PauFerragut 4h4 hours ago
In 2015 #Nadal didn’t face seeded opponents until #Djokovic in QF. Maybe this year his draw level required will help him to be competitive.
Agreed 100% IMO.
Ben Rothenberg ‏@BenRothenberg 5h5 hours ago Baden-Württemberg, Germany
After Nadal dealt tough #RG16 draw (Fognini R3, Thiem R16, Djokovic semifinals), bookmakers upgrading Andy Murray to second-favorite status.
Carole Bouchard ‏@carole_bouchard 5h5 hours ago
Nadal and Djokovic in same side of draws should just be ATP and ITF illegal. #…..
Hey Ricky, what’s your prediction on the third match below? 🙂
Roland Garros ‏@rolandgarros 5h5 hours ago
Grab your popcorn for these…
Coric vs Fritz
Chung vs Halys
Zverev vs Herbert
Herbert will win! 🙂 🙂
Hahahaha
nats gets it.
Do YOU? Or don’t you.
Zverev and P2H is such a good match. I have a feeling Pierre might get the upset but at the same time surface advantage would have to go to Zverev and because he’s Zverev. I think Chung is struggling and Halys won a clay challenger last month so Halys has a good shot there. Coric and Fritz is one of my favorite first round matchups to be honest. I think either one could get that one done. For some reason I’m leaning towards Fritz maybe just cuz he’s American and I’m rooting for him a bit more than Coric though I like Coric. It would be nice to see him or Fritz make a run. I think the winner of that match will for sure make third round as their next opponent would be Tomic or Baker. You’re right ratcliff. Those are popcorn matches!
Sorry I meant you’re right hawkeye*.
S’ok BG, any time I’m confused with rc is a compliment!
?
Rafa needs a good result at the french since the rankings at the end will be the basis gor olympic seedings. At least he will have a shot at bronze if he draws djoko in the semis else he may have to face nole in the quarters