Possible Federer vs. Nadal showdown headlines intriguing second week in Indian Wells

Storylines abound in Indian Wells and none of the best ones dried up in the desert during the first four days of action. Another Roger Federer vs. Rafael Nadal showdown is still on the anticipated menu, Novak Djokovic’s winning streak dating all the way back to the start of the World Tour Finals is intact, and Mardy Fish kicked off his comeback with a win. Speaking of comebacks, this may not be Nadal’s first tournament, but his first foray onto a hard court complete with a battle against Federer would give us a far more accurate reading of the Spaniard’s level than overhyped clay-court encounters with guys like Martin Alund and Diego Sebastian Schwartzman.

BNP Paribas Open

Where: Indian Wells, California
Prize money: $5,030,408
Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: Roger Federer

Updated draw analysis: The most intriguing quarter was and still is, of course, the Federer-Nadal section. Both men won their openers without too much trouble and they remain on a collision course for what would be their first-ever quarterfinal showdown in their 29^th career meeting. You can go ahead and pencil in Federer, a four-time Indian Wells champion, through to the last eight because only Ivan Dodig and either Lleyton Hewitt or Stanslasis Wawrinka (let’s all hope that the Aussie saves us from another Fed-Wawa matchup!) stand in his way. Nadal, however, could face a red-hot Ernests Gulbis in the fourth round. Gulbis, on a 12-match winning streak, has a favorable third-round draw against No. 20 seed Andreas Seppi.

Also in the bottom half of the bracket is the most wide-open section, which lacked any of the Big 4 to begin with and is even missing David Ferrer at this point. The highest-ranked player left—and the obvious favorite to reach the semis although by no means a lock—is No. 6 Tomas Berdych. The Czech should roll over Florian Mayer, but up next would be either an in-form Richard Gasquet or the always-dangerous Jerzy Janowicz. Kevin Anderson now occupies Ferrer’s place in the draw after taking out the fourth seed on Saturday. As such, a quarterfinal spot is up for grabs between Anderson, Jarkko Nieminen, Gilles Simon, and Benoit Paire…but the South African is playing by far the best tennis of that bunch. Another Berdych-Anderson collision (what would be their sixth in the last two seasons) is probably in the cards.

In the top half, the top four seeds and four favorites to reach the quarters are still alive and still looking like smart bets to take care of business. Djokovic did not play well in a three-set win over Fabio Fognini, but it should only be a wakeup call for the two-time Indian Wells champ. Djokovic’s potential quarterfinal opponent would come from an intriguing group of four that features Fish, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Marin Cilic, and Milos Raonic. Cilic-Raonic is a clash of 2013 ATP title winners, Fish is making his long-awaited return to tennis, and Tsonga—the Marseille champion—survived a high-quality battle with James Blake on Sunday night.

Like Djokovic, Murray also lost a set in his Indian Wells opener. The third-ranked Scot overcame an in-the-zone Evgeny Donskoy after a surprising first set and his only real threat prior to the last eight is Kei Nishikori. Nishikori is dangerous when healthy (see: Memphis title), but we never really know when he is 100 percent (see: Delray Beach, among many others). Also in the second quarter of the bracket, the most entertaining match of the entire third round could be Nicolas Almagro vs. Tommy Haas. Still, neither man is playing well enough right now (like they both were in 2012) to inspire much confidence in a probable meeting with Juan Martin Del Potro in round four.

Third-round upset alert: (24) Jerzy Janowicz over (10) Richard Gasquet. Gasquet is an incredible 16-3 this season and already the proud owner of two ATP titles. Fatigue, however, could be creeping up on the Frenchman. He lost his second-round Rotterdam match to Marcos Baghdatis in straight sets and dropped his opener at home in Marseille to Gilles Muller. Conditions in Indian Wells are not exactly ideal for Janowicz like they were in Paris, but the huge-hitting Pole looked good in a three-set victory at the expense of David Nalbandian on Saturday.

Additionally, don’t be surprised if Gulbis takes out Seppi and Paire ousts Simon. But those would only be upsets on paper. In reality, Gulbis is a considerable favorite over Seppi according to the odds and Paire-Simon is a tossup (Paire is 2-0 lifetime in the head-to-head series). Hewitt over Wawrinka is not out of the question, but the 32-year-old would prefer to face a more one-dimensional big server (like John Isner in round two) as opposed to someone who can overpower him from the baseline.

Hot: Novak Djokovic, Juan Martin Del Potro, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Richard Gasquet, Marin Cilic, Kei Nishikori, Jerzy Janowicz, Marinko Matosevic, Kevin Anderson, Ernests Gulbis

Cold but possibly warming up: Mardy Fish, Florian Mayer, Yen-Hsun Lu, Carlos Berlocq, Bjorn Phau, Lleyton Hewitt

Quarterfinal predictions: Novak Djokovic over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Juan Martin Del Potro over Andy Murray, Tomas Berdych over Kevin Anderson, and Roger Federer over Rafael Nadal

Semifinals: Djokovic over Del Potro, Federer over Berdych

Final: Djokovic over Federer

Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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