Paris R2 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Rosol, Tsonga vs. Bautista Agut

Tsonga 2Familiar and unfriendly foes Rafael Nadal and Lukas Rosol will face each other again on Wednesday in Paris. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is also in second-round action against Roberto Bautista Agut.

(Q) Lukas Rosol vs. (7) Rafael Nadal

Nadal and Rosol will be squaring off for the second time in as many weeks when they clash in round two of the BNP Paribas Masters. They just met in the Basel first round, with Nadal storming back from a set and a break down to prevail 1-6, 7-5, 7-6(4). The former world No. 1 leads the head-to-head series 3-1, having lost to Rosol only at Wimbledon in 2012. Nadal has since won three in a row–including last summer at the All-England Club.

From just about out of nowhere, Nadal has picked up plenty of momentum heading in the last regular-season tournament of 2015. But it won’t be Nadal’s final event, because he qualified with room to spare for the World Tour Finals. The sixth-ranked Spaniard finished runner-up to Novak Djokovic in Beijing, reached the Shanghai semifinals, and made a run to the Basel title match (lost to Roger Federer in three sets). Nadal’s 11-2 record in tournament action during the fall swing is the second best showing of his career, having previously compiled a 10-0 post-U.S. Open mark in 2005 (did not play the year-end championship).

It has already been a stellar week for Rosol, who had to qualify just to get into the main draw. The 66th-ranked Czech then held off Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 6-2, 2-6, 6-3 on Tuesday. Although Rosol is playing decent tennis, Nadal has raised his level even in the short time since they last played each other. A more confident Nadal on a surface slower than that in Basel is a disaster waiting to happen for Rosol.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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(9) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Roberto Bautista Agut

Tsonga and Bautista Agut will be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers on Wednesday. Their only previous encounter came earlier this season at the Rogers Cup, where Tsonga survived a 5-7, 7-6(6), 7-5 thriller. Bautista Agut has done well to get another shot at the Frenchman. The 24th-ranked Spaniard has played a ton of recent tennis, having finished runner-up in back-to-back weeks in Moscow (to Marin Cilic) and Valencia (to Joao Sousa). But he got right back in gear to overcome Pierre-Hugues Herbert 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 on Tuesday.

A former champion (2008) and runner-up (2011) of this event, Tsonga earned an opening-round bye as the ninth seed. The world No. 10 has been inconsistent this year but he has posted some outstanding results of late–a title in Metz and a runner-up performance in Shanghai. It would not be surprising to see him put on another show on indoor hard courts in front of his home fans. A worn-out Bautista Agut is likely to get powered off the court in this one.

Pick: Tsonga in 2

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193 Comments on Paris R2 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Rosol, Tsonga vs. Bautista Agut

  1. The Rosol Wimbledon win is a good example of why the context of any match should be taken into account.

    Rafa had just completed an arduous clay court season where he had beaten Djokovic on three consecutive occasions, culminating with RG, for the first time since Nole had inflicted a run of painful losses in 2011 (plus the marathon AO ’12 final.}

    This is pure speculation but the effort required, combined with insufficient time for preparation on grass, must have impacted on his dodgy knees because immediately after Wimbledon he was forced to withdrawl from the Olympics. He admitted this broke his heart. He was not to play on the circuit for seven months while his knees were sorted out. Ergo. What looked like a defeat to a lowly ranked player was not the humiliating catastrophe so often portrayed. What it did do is kick start Rosol’s career and three years later he is still a loose cannon capable of causing upsets.

    I trust Rafa learnt his lesson last week and doesn’t cut it so finely today. I’m hedging my bets for Rafa to win in three sets – although hopefully he’ll get it done in straight sets.

  2. Tsonga is riding on the crest of the wave. Boosted by a noisy crowd on his home turf it’s hard to imagine him not doing it in two blistering sets.

    Tsonga in 2

  3. I’ve just watched their Basel match again this morning and all Rafa’s woes in the first set and a half were of his own making by UEs and feeding Rosol balls to hit winners. Rafa says it’s because it was his first indoor match for a year and he needed time to get used to it. Rosol, of course, had already played a match. Not sure if he went through qualifying.

    I hope Rafa digs his heels in straight away and not mess about dropping his serve.

    Vamos Rafa!
    ***

  4. I did not see Rosol’s match yesterday as I generally dislike seeing him on the screen…But I am wondering: was he twitching, doing those convulsive fidgets and making strange noises as he was when Rafa served? I tend to believe he has developed those specifically to annoy Rafa…

    • No. His does it in a lot of his matches. Not exclusively for Rafa. I’m sure it is a deliberate ploy. It must be so difficult for opponents to block it our while they are serving. Rafa knows it is deliberate but he must learn not to show it’s having the desired effectt – will only make the Rissole do it more knowing Rafa is agitated about it.

    • natashao2013 ( at 11:19 am),

      It’s “something Rosol has been known to do with regularity throughout his career.” [TennisNow, Oct. 26, 2015]

  5. Please Rafa, don’t mock about and dispatch Rosol in straights. For those who are predicting Rosol in straights… if he couldn’t do it a week ago (when he should have), how’s he going to do it now? no way.

  6. Can you believe it. While they were warming up the British commie (not sure who it is) told us all how Rosol inflicted the worst defeat on Rafa blah, blah, blah but he thinks Rafa may have got over that by now blah, blah.

  7. Thx Ed.. so he was taking a piss at Rafa or what? This guy is really brainless, how can he have eye-ball coordination evades me …

  8. So , here we are, look at rafa now! he looks so much more confident. The performance in basel did him soooo much good!…even that loss to federer was full of positives

  9. rafa is DETERMINED, real DETERMINED to start taking second serves on the rise and stay on the baseline for the rallies. He is going to start doing this regularly for 2016 and this is the IDEAL time to build this skill. Quite essential it is .

    He is throwing in some good second serves as well. Relax, and keep going for them , rafa!

    • vamosrafa,

      I caught up reading your comments during the match! This is good news! I can’t wait to see the replay! It seems that Rafa did come out of Basel with good feelings, as I expected!

      • ^^Too soon NNY. Rafa still has the WTF to come so don’t want to see him leave his guts on the court in Paris – he may face Djokovoc in London.

        btw. I read they have tried to make Bercy as close as possible to the O2 conditions.

      • ed251137 (at 5:36 pm),
        — I read they have tried to make Bercy as close as possible to the O2 conditions—
        ===
        .
        I repeat what I wrote somewhere yesterday:
        The Paris Masters Website: ¤¤ The BNP Paribas Masters is played on GreenSet – resin on wood – which is absolutely identical to the surface at the ATP World Tour Finals in London which will be held from 15 – 22 November 2015.¤¤
        The courts in Basel, Paris and London have been identical since at least 2013.

    • ed,

      I guess you do make a good point. But the way Rafa is playing do you think that someone like Thiem will take him out? Or anyone else in the quarterfinals?

      I can understand you wanting Rafa to meet Novak at the WTF. But if Rafa can keep winning, then inevitably he will bump up against Novak.

  10. easy match for Rafa…that’s great!

    Strangely enough Rosol behaved this time…maybe he is becoming a better person… 🙂

    Vamos Rafa!

    • Indeed!!!! Very clean match….i just still cant get over Rafa’s ROS……just impressive he has really grown in that department!!!

      • Some of that could be due to Rosol’s serve being less lethal today. As Lucky points out, Rafa’s ROS used to be pretty effective, It’s only in the past couple of years it has been letting him down.

    • I shall watch the replay just for the pleasure of watching Rafa spank Rosol again. It was not 100% perfect but near enough dammit.

    • it’s been a while since I felt this relaxed during Rafa’s match…Rafa was dominating from the start…it was a pleasure to watch Rafa in this mode!

      Vamos Champ!

  11. Till I see it again I can’t be sure but am I right in thinking Rosol toned down the distracting routine for the 2nd set? If so it is proof positive it is a deliberate manoeuvre to unsettle the server and not just an OCD problem he has. By not reacting Rafa made him realise it was not working today.

  12. I wasn’t able to see the match because of physical therapy, but I did follow the live score on my iPhone. The score makes it look like a beatdown.

    Yay! Rafa beat him again!

      • ed,

        Thanks! Health concerns sometimes intervene in life. But I will definitely watch the replay. I was rushing out the door and forgot to hit the record button. That would have made it easier, but they will replay it!

        I can’t wait to see it! So good to know he put Rosol in his place!

      • Ed,

        I guess that I had a senior moment, because once I turned on the TV I realized that I did record the match and it was still recording. So I was able to watch Rafa’s match!

        I think Rafa came out and played really well. I love how he is taking the ball early now. Also on ROS, when it’s the second serve, I noticed that Rafa is standing on the baseline but then he kind of stutter steps and moves up just inside the baseline. He hit a nice cc backhand ROS doing just that!

        Rafa was sharp throughout the match! Rosol wasn’t able to do match. It was nice to see Rafa get an easy win and get off the court quickly!

        I really enjoyed it! 🙂

      • Mona,

        Thanks so much for your kind words!

        Yes, the best medicine is Rafa playing so well and thumping the likes of Rosol and winning! That helps a lot! 🙂

  13. Rafa stepping in, moving much closer to the baseline on Rosol’s second serve, hitting deep shots and moving Rosol around the court…lovely, just lovely…

  14. The ATP Staff, Nov.4, 2015: ¤¤ Rafa Rolls at BNP Paribas Masters ¤¤

    http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/rafa-rolls-at-bnp-paribas-masters

    An excerpt:
    ¤¤ “I didn’t prepare differently,” said Nadal of facing Rosol in back-to-back weeks. “It was just another match, a tough match against a difficult player. He’s always tough, but I was playing much better than I did last week in the first round. I played a solid match, not many mistakes. I served well and went for the points with my forehand.”¤¤

  15. From Rafa’s post-match press conference:
    Carole Bouchard (Journalist):
    ¤¤ “When I am with ‘coolm’, I can move myself”, Nadal explaining movements are better cause no more nerves. Says needs to work on serve still. ¤¤

    • Then it must be true!!!!!

      🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

      • nadline, I understand that you love a good banter, but it can get a bit tiresome especially as you are just arguing for the sake of it. If I said the sun rises in the east and sets in the west you will still find something to argue about that.

        But your conclusions based upon one interviewer and another based on some VB fan’s translation are facile.

        Monalisa, because I am a mirror. 🙂

  16. I see they give Roger another set of stooges as opponents….Seppi?! I mean Im surprised Fogninni was not it Rafa’s side of the draw. Its so crazy….this luck of the draw bs!!!

  17. What. The. Fudge. Dj, I think Lopez knew u were betting and wanted to screw u over because he lost 5-2 lead and match point in second set and was up 3-0 and lost 6-4 in final set. What a horrible choke loss from FLo. I was rooting for him all the way too. Love watching him play cuz I love to serve and volley in my tournaments as well and just slice and come in during the point too. Also he is really smooth to watch. What a shame he had to have this result though. Really a bummer.

    • That was the worst choke I ever witnessed. The only two come backs that’s similar to this was when federer vs monfils in 2014 us open down two sets match. Point and federer came back for the win but that’s understandable because federer is goat. Also I remember seeing Tommy robredo vs chardy last year when chardy was serving match point and robredo came back two sets ftw that’s understandable too because robredo is a legend. Today what Lopez did was unforgivable barely hitting in first service, 8 double faults, and massive unforced error count.

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