Paris QF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Gasquet, Ferrer vs. Berdych

Spaniards Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer are one round away from a semifinal showdown in Paris. They first have to get past Richard Gasquet and Tomas Berdych, respectively, on Friday.

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (9) Richard Gasquet

Nadal and Gasquet will be doing battle for the 12th time in their careers when they clash in the quarterfinals of the BNP Paribas Masters on Friday. All 11 of their previous encounters have gone Nadal’s way, including five on hard courts. They most recently faced each other in this summer’s U.S. Open semifinals, with the Spaniard prevailing 6-4, 7-6(1), 6-2 en route to the title. Nadal is 26-4 in total sets against Gasquet and 17-0 in their last 17.

If there is any good news for the Frenchman, it’s that he is playing at home and playing well. Gasquet is on his way to the World Tour Finals with a 50-19 record for the season following defeats this week of Fernando Verdasco and Kei Nishikori. The world No. 10 was pummeled by Verdasco’s lefty serve out wide to the ad side of the court, and Nadal will once again be able to do the same. Nadal, who has advanced with straight-set wins over Marcel Granollers and Jerzy Janowicz, matches up well with Gasquet as his heavy topspin is able to take advantage of his opponent’s one-handed backhand even though it is Gasquet’s best shot.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 8 games or fewer

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(3) David Ferrer vs. (6) Tomas Berdych

The question in this one is if an indoor hard court will help Berdych get the best of what is traditionally a bad matchup for him. Ferrer leads the head-to-head series 6-3 heading into Friday’s showdown and he has even won four of their five previous hard-court meetings. They most recently collided last fall in the Davis Cup final, where Berdych–despite playing at home in the Czech Republic on an indoor hard court–went down 6-2, 6-3, 7-5.

Current form suggests Berdych will have a better chance this time around. The world No. 7 is 52-21 for the year following victories this week over Pablo Andujar and Milos Raonic. Ferrer is still up at No. 3 in the world, but he has cooled off since Wimbledon. The Spaniard finished runner-up in both Basel and Valencia, but in both of those finals he suffered upset losses (to Grigor Dimitrov and Mikhail Youzhny, respectively). So far in Paris, Ferrer has taken out Lukas Rosol and Gilles Simon. One of the best returners in the game, Ferrer is generally able to break down Berdych by getting ball after ball in play even on fast surfaces. Unless the big man puts in an incredible percentage of first serves (at least 70 percent), more of the same can be expected.

Pick: Ferrer in 3

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43 Comments on Paris QF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Gasquet, Ferrer vs. Berdych

  1. Ricky,

    Isn’t it the world No. 7 is 52-21 for the year following victories this week over Pablo Andujar and Milos Raonic?

  2. Gasquet once reach the SF at Bercy back in 2007 but has traditionally been in a funk when playing in Paris. So much so he once withdrew from RG rather than face more humiliation. So far this year he has managed to overcome the fear of failure on his home turf and with his WTF place confirmed I expect him to be relaxed enough to put in a better performance today. Not good enough to beat Rafa though.

    Rafa in 2 with a tiebreak.

  3. someone wrote here a few days ago that the crowd at Bercy is different than at Rolland Garos. Any idea if that is true and in which way? I suppose that the more serious tennis fans will go for Bercy while a slam attracts a wider public.

  4. Seemed like Rafa played sublime in comparison to yesterday!! Hope he continues the trend.
    How many here are rooting for a Fed/Rafa final?!!

  5. Ricky said Berdy would need to be serving at least 70% first serves to have a chance. He is hovering on that and winning 70% points from it as well.

  6. Fed / Rafa final?
    Djoker losing tomorrow? Perhaps 35% chance but that would suit me and our dear Rafito. If it is turns out to be a Fedal final I would not like to be in Fed’s shoes.

  7. Ferru has upped his level but Berdy is level pegging. Just have the feeling Berdy is going to make it to the SF but there is nothing to suggest he will be a threat to Rafa.

  8. I had things that couldn’t be put off today, so I had to record Rafa’s match. I got home in time to see Ferrer beat Berdy. I then watched my recording of Rafa’s match. It was easier than I thought. I expected Gasquet to put up more of a fight, but Rafa was just too good.

    They are replaying the quarterfinal matches now on the tennis channel. Right now it’s Fed/Delpo. I want to watch that one. So it will be Fed against Djoker. I can’t wait to see that! Let’s see if Fed can do something against Djoker.

    I didn’t think it mattered whether it was Ferrer or Berdy. Rafa would beat either one. I think he is going to the final! 🙂

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