A blockbuster third-round showdown on Thursday at the Paris Masters pits world No. 2 Rafael Nadal against outside London contender Stan Wawrinka. Stefanos Tsitsipas and a red-hot Alex de Minaur are also part of a jam-packed schedule.
(16) Stan Wawrinka vs. (2) Rafael Nadal
Nadal and Wawrinka will be squaring off for the 22nd time in their careers when they battle for a quarterfinal spot at the BNP Paribas Masters on Thursday night. The head-to-head series stands at 18-3 in favor of Nadal, but Wawrinka has won three of their last nine meetings after starting a hopeless 0-12 against the Spaniard. They have faced each other twice at the Paris Masters, with Nadal cruising 6-4, 6-3 in 2007 before Wawrinka prevailed 7-6(8), 7-6(7) in 2015.
This has always been Nadal’s worst time of year, as the indoor hard-court surface is far from ideal and he is often bogged down by injuries at this point. Thus–even though the world No. 2 remained in fine form by beating Adrian Mannarino 7-5, 6-4 on Wednesday–this is big opportunity for Wawrinka. The 16th-ranked Swiss is an outstanding 10-2 in his last 12 matches following a 7-6(3), 7-6(5) second-round win over Marin Cilic. In these conditions, Wawrinka is capable of hitting Nadal off the court.
Pick: Wawrinka in 3
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Alex de Minaur vs. (7) Stefanos Tsitsipas
This is not the last tournament of the year for Nadal and it may not be for Wawrinka, either, if he captures the title. It’s also not the end for Tsitsipas and de Minaur. Tsitsipas is headed for a debut appearance at the Nitto ATP Finals, while de Minaur will be the No. 1 seed at the NextGen ATP Finals. First, though, they will try to continue their impressive seasons in their third career meeting at the ATP level on Thursday. Tsitsipas has won both of their previous contests; 6-3, 5-7, 6-1 last fall in Tokyo and in four sets a few weeks later at the NextGen ATP Finals.
De Minaur has to be a bit fatigued, coming off a runner-up performance in Basel this past week (lost to Roger Federer in the final). The 18th-ranked Australian has already played two matches this week, as well, beating Laslo Djere and Roberto Bautista Agut in straight sets. Tstisipas, who followed up a first-round bye with a 7-6(3), 6-3 defeat of Taylor Fritz, has gone final (Beijing), semis (Shanghai), and semis (Basel) in his last three events. The sixth-ranked Greek will likely outlast de Minaur in what should be a good one.
Pick: Tsitsipas in 3
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WYG?
Rafa in 2 or 3. He’s not tired or injured this time around! Not yet, anyway. And he’s serving well. Both Rafa and Stan are different players now – for better or worse – so I don’t think there’s much predictive value in the head to head.
Stay focused, remain confident, be strong and fight bravely, Rafa!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIMPQLmWoAANQJn?format=jpg&name=medium
vamos Rafa 🎾🇪🇸🎾
De Minaur
Vamos Rafa!
Rafa in straight sets.. But they picked Wawrinka in 3 sets🤣
Ricky, while your Wawrinka-Nadal prediction may as well prove accurate, this time most of your arguments are fallacious.
Like you say, this has always been the Spaniard’s worst time of year.
However, the changes brought by Moya to his game will be most effective on the indoor HC surfaces.
Also, this time Rafa is injury free and the most rested he’s ever been at this point, so we’re really in uncharted territory.
Court conditions:
Wawrinka doesn’t thrive on indoor HCs either. He played just 5 finals winning only one small tournament (Rotterdam) back in 2015. Hell, he lost to Copil earlier this year!
This makes sense as he needs time to prepare his shots (this is also why he’s horrible on grass).
Nadal has one (Masters) indoor HC title as well and played 6 finals, but he made two ATP World Tour Finals finals.
I am pretty sure that Stanislas played a lot more indoor HC tournaments in his career than the Spaniard – this is his 4th this year alone (mediocre results at most so far).
Since most of the indoor HC tournaments are scheduled at the end on the season when Rafa was usually exhausted/injured, I would say that Nadal actually did better than Wawrinka.
Head to head:
Stanislas beat Nadal only three times, with the last victory coming before his knee surgery:
AO 2014 when the Spaniard got injured.
Rome 2015 when Rafa had the worst European clay court swing in his career (lost in Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid, Rome and RG) and Wawrinka won RG a few weeks later..
Paris 2015 in one of the worst years for Nadal (didn’t win anything important that year but played a lot and was already tired in Paris); he still managed to beat Stanislas 2 weeks later in London.
On indoor hard the Spaniard is 3-1.
Player form:
Yes, the Swiss is an “outstanding” 10-2 in his last 12 matches, but who did he beat?
Besides dispatching an out of sorts (although doubtfully injured) Djokovic at USO, his highest ranked opponents were Cuevas (#45) and now a fading Cilic (#24, soon to be #39).
Is he currently playing at the level which enabled him to win multiple slams? Far from it.
Rafa is unbeaten since Wimbledon and playing arguably his best HC tennis.
So, is Wawrinka is capable of hitting Nadal off the court? Yes, he is. He can do that to anyone on any surface.
Will that happen today? The facts say that he won’t.
The surface doesn’t really favor any of them.
The match-up is heavily in the Spaniard’s favor.
Rafa is in better form (might be a bit undercooked though), much more rested and injury free (Stanislas just retired from Basel a week ago).
Better say that you have a gut feeling that Wawrinka wins this one, because there are no facts backing your prediction 🙂
beat Nadal in Paris in 2015
say no more
Rafa beat Waw at the 2007 Paris Masters.
Yes, that was a really decisive match to hang your hat on! Two tiebreak sets with Rafa serving as poorly as he ever has?
who do you think Rafa will suddenly start playing better at this event?
this is the Paris Masters, not the Paris Grand Slam
Ricky, Nadal may not have won Paris and he has missed 9 because of injury but the 6 times he has played there, he’s made the final once, SF – twice and the QF – 3 times and that’s with retiring mid match from two of the 6 times. Rafa’s success rate is 76%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rafael_Nadal_career_statistics
Stan’s participation is littered with 1st and 2nd round exists apart from one SF in 2015. His success rate in Bercy is 52%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stan_Wawrinka_career_statistics
Ricky, sorry, but I can’t make sense of your sentence. Anyway, what Nadline said.
Aha – your sentence was supposed to start with “why” not “who”. Anyway, what Nadline said. 🙂
WHY
I like Cristian P’s analysis. I can see why Wawrinka might be the favorite to win this match, given that Rafa has not done well here in the past. Wawrinka has a lot on the line with potentially qualifying for London. He is capable of hitting anyone off the court. But this time Rafa is healthy and playing very well. It’s not like Rafa can’t win on this surface. But the conditions don’t favor his high bouncing shots. He may be a bit undercooked here. I think it’s a tough match early in the tournament. But I think Rafa can get the win.
As for Stan beating Rsfa in 2015 here, everyone and his brother was beating Rafa in 2015.
Vamos Rafa!
Every day is a different day…Rafa is more fading the stan…The odds are clearly favouring Nadal but i guess the match is equally poised with HC favouring Wawrinka..I will go with Stanisals Wawrinka.
I’m not into predictions but the world and his wife know that Stan’s win at the 2014 AO has a big asterisk against it with Rafa starting the match with a bad back which plagued him for the rest of the season. Rafa says he wouldn’t have played that match had it not been a GS Final. With a bad back, Rafa actually won a set at the AO 2014 Final.
Stan’s two other wins were in 2015 when Rafa lost to anyone who could swing a racquet because of his loss of form. Even in Rafa’s worst form in 2015, in Paris Bercy, Stan could only manage 2 closely contested TBs to win the match. Stan has never even taken a set off Rafa in all of his 18 losses. In fact, they were all easy straight sets. Whether they were BO3 or BO5.
I like the way Ricky has brushed aside Rafa’s 18 wins against Stan and decided to concentrate on Stan’s 3, albeit in exceptional circumstances.
If Stan wins , it wouldn’t make Ricky’s predictions any more logical. It would be more than just a coincidence.
Well done Tsitsipas, hope he puts up a good fight vs Djoko in the QF. Djoko looked vulnerable but still good enough to beat his two opponents so far, who pushed him hard for only a set each and couldn’t sustain the level in set two.
Surprised that Edmund didn’t venture to the net more often (which he’s capable of doing so), staying at the baseline all the time is not going to help him in beating Djoko, even a vulnerable one.
Tsitsipas OTOH could and would venture to the net and has good hands there at the net; maybe he’ll do better vs Djoko?
Rafa wins 64 64
That’s 42 out of 49 sets Rafa has won against Stan.
Vamos Rafa
In the end Nadal beat Wawrinka comfortably enough, although he had some “stomach” issues (probably got the same virus which affected Djokovic in the second round).
Wawrinka didn’t play bad, but that’s about all he can usually do when he meets Rafa.
Neither player was at his best, but it was an enjoyable match.
Vamos Rafa!! ✌ ✌
Rafa’s post-match press conference:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bhj3piG4zNg
Vamos Rafa!
What..Rafa not well..damn ..stomach virus ?
No one knows. Rafa is downplaying it.
better than an injury
Yes but what is it..i think if it’s a virus he will lose today n the bigger fear is of getting an injury playing that way
No, Rafa has good chances of advancing to the final here! I doubt his stomach virus is that serious.
Looking forward to your Match Recap, Ricky. 😄
Good thing i didn’t read this thread before watching Rafa’s match, sigh!! I would have gotten that stomach bug Rafa’s got, lol!!
I found Rafa’s legs to be a bit heavy but his serves were great, i mean wow!!! For the first time in a very very very long time I wasn’t anxious when Rafa served! Hope whatever issue he has quells! Vamos Mr Nadal!!
Yeah, I was worried when Rafa called for physio..hope it’s nothing serious. His serve worked great, just needs to be less error prone but Wawa did try to be super aggressive and it worked in some instances. However, it its not easy to be aggressive against Rafa cause it’s usually hit or miss.
Rafa did well. A bit rusty but he will get better. Hope he is ok physically…
Vamos Champ!
doctor luckily. not physio.
I was so freaked out when they said Rsfa called for the doctor! Then they said Rafa had a stomach bug. Much better than an injury! Rafa downplayed it after three match. I think he will be okay. He is serving very well! Nice to see! He is missing some shots he would normally make, but that is to be expected because he has not played for a bit. But he handled Stan quite well. He seemed to be in control of the match. So much for Rafa losing to Stan!
I think Rafa will beat Tsonga. He is playing well and getting to a quarterfinal for him is a good result. But I don’t see him beating Rafa. Rafa has an excellent chance to get to the final.