Paris R3 previews and predictions: Federer vs. Fognini, Thiem vs. Coric

Roger Federer will be playing his first match in Paris after winning last week’s Basel title when he takes the court against Fabio Fognini on Thursday. Dominic Thiem and Borna Coric are also aiming for a place in the quarterfinals.

(13) Fabio Fognini vs. (3) Roger Federer

We are into the third round at the Rolex Paris Masters and neither Federer nor Fognini has played a single match. After benefiting from opening byes as seeded players, both Federer and Fognini got walkovers on Wednesday–the former from Milos Raonic and the latter thanks to Marton Fucsovics. Thus the two veterans will be extremely well-rested for their fourth career contest on Thursday. Federer is sweeping a brief head-to-head series 3-0, with straight-set wins in 2007 (Rogers Cup), 2012 (Wimbledon), and 2014 (Davis Cup semifinals).

Fast forward to 2018 and Federer is still going strong at 37 years old even though he will likely finish the season ranked below Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal. The Swiss boasts a 44-7 record and he is coming off a ninth career Basel title last week. Fognini has been outstanding this year, to the extent that he remains in distant Nitto ATP Finals contention. The 14th-ranked Italian can get a spot in London if he captures the Paris title, if both Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro withdraw, and if John Isner loses in the Paris third round. It’s unlikely, of course; in fact, it’s unlikely that Fognini even survives one more day. Federer has dominated him on all three occasions and the Basel triumph was perfect preparation for Paris.

Pick: Federer in 2

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(11) Borna Coric vs. (6) Dominic Thiem

Thiem’s London status could be in trouble if the Paris final turns out to be Isner vs. Kei Nishikori, but in all likelihood he is well on his way to another appearance at the O2 Arena. The eighth-ranked Austrian has picked up 51 match victories so far in 2018, mostly thanks to once again cementing himself as the second-best clay-courter in the world behind Nadal. Thiem has also played a more sensible schedule this season, to the extent that he is more rested and playing better hard-court tennis in the fall. Paris’ No. 6 seed triumphed in St. Petersburg in late September and kicked off this week’s campaign by disposing of an in-form Gilles Simon  6-4, 6-2.

Up next for Thiem on Thursday is a fourth career encounter with Coric, who trails the head-to-head series 2-1. The 13th-ranked Croat pulled off an upset at the 2017 Miami Masters before taking a pair of clay-court losses (Madrid last year and Madrid once again this year). A red-hot Coric finds himself in between Isner and Fognini in the 2018 race, sporting a 39-19 record following Wednesday’s 6-4, 6-4 defeat of Daniil Medvedev. A slight edge in current form may go to the 21-year-old, but Thiem has a whole lot of gas in his tank right now and the Paris conditions are not bad for his game despite being indoors.

Pick: Thiem in 3

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