Paris Olympics men’s singles final expert picks: Djokovic vs. Alcaraz

Expert picks are back for the gold-medal match of the Paris Olympics on Sunday, when Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz collide in a rematch of the recent Wimbledon final. A three-team panel previews the action and makes its predictions.

(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (2) Carlos Alcaraz

Ricky: The first three months of the year or so belonged to Jannik Sinner; the spring and summer have belonged to Alcaraz. Whatever the rankings say (currently No. 3), Alcaraz is by far the best player in the world right now. The reigning French Open and Wimbledon champion looks poised to add another huge title to his haul, this time in the form of Olympic gold. He has not dropped a set this week and Felix Auger-Aliassime managed to take just two games in the semis. Even though Alcaraz is the favorite, the pressure is on Djokovic. A gold medal is one of only two missing puzzle pieces in Djokovic’s storied career, the other being a calendar-year Grand Slam. When he was one match away from the latter at the 2021 U.S. Open, the Serb got clobbered by Daniil Medvedev. Moreover, Djokovic just got crushed by Alcaraz in the Wimbledon final. This feels like a routine, one break in each set kind of match. And the Spaniard can probably win it even more convincingly if he really feels like it. Alcaraz in 2: 6-4, 6-3.

Cheryl: It would not be an unfair assessment to claim that Djokovic limped his way to the Wimbledon final. The Serb is the master at winning even when he is not playing well, and win he did–until he ran into Alcaraz in the title match. At that point, Djokovic took one of the worst slam final beatings of his career. And here we are again–and in some ways the stakes are higher than they were even at the All-England Club. An Olympic gold medal is the one major tennis prize that has eluded the Serb. The good news for Djokovic? He is playing better than he did in London. Hasn’t even dropped a set. The bad news? Alcaraz is ALSO playing well. And while their head-to-head is an even 3-3, Alcaraz’s latest drubbing of the 24-time major champion is a clear advantage for the Spaniard. It’s also worth noting that Alcaraz is the reigning French Open AND Wimbledon champion. Put simply, he’s on a roll. He is the best player in the world by a fair margin, and he has demonstrated that he is the master of big moments. Alcaraz in 3: 6-3, 5-7, 6-2.

Pete (Tennis Acumen): Both Alcaraz and Djokovic arrive at the gold-medal match without dropping a set. Somehow, a wounded Djokovic roared back from a 4-0 second-set deficit against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarters to take that set in a tiebreaker and advance. Then the Serb was uncharacteristically broken in each of his first two service games in the second set in his last match against an in-form Lorenzo Musetti, corrected course and won the next four games to close out the match.  Alcaraz did face a set point in his quarter against Tommy Paul, but he was able to snuff that out and then win the match a few minutes later. That has been his lone scare during these Olympic Games and he dropped just two games in his last match against Felix Auger-Aliassime.  We do have the final that many hoped for and most expected. However, questions remain about Djokovic–namely a possible reaggravation of a recent injury as well as the fact that even he admitted to being nervous at the beginning of the second set against Musetti. A gold medal is literally the only prize that has eluded him in his storied career and this pressure was on display despite having just earned a set advantage on Friday. Djokovic will be grateful that the final is a best-of-three situation, but in the end it simply will not matter; the Spaniard will have all the answers, much like he did in their recent Wimbledon final. Alcaraz in 2: 7-5, 6-3.

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