Olympics SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Musetti

It will be a rematch of the Wimbledon semifinals when Novak Djokovic and Lorenzo Musetti meet in the same round of the Paris Olympics on Friday night. Djokovic is dominating the head-to-head series 6-1 after prevailing 6-4, 7-6(2), 6-4 at the All-England Club.

However, there are reasons for Musetti to be encouraged. His one win over Djokovic has come on clay (4-6, 7-5, 6-4 at the 2023 Monte-Carlo Masters) and both of their previous encounters at Roland Garros were five-setters–including in the third round this spring.

Moreover, Musetti is arguably the hottest player on tour right now outside of reigning French Open and Wimbledon champion Carlos Alcaraz. The 16th-ranked Italian finished runner-up at Queen’s Club before advancing to the Wimbledon semis and he was also the runner-up in Umag last weekend. With zero rest in between tournaments, Musetti has remained on fire by beating Gael Monfils, Mariano Navone, Taylor Fritz, and Alexander Zverev.

Djokovic lost to Alcaraz in the Wimbledon final and is therefore still looking for his first title of 2024. He is also bidding for his first Olympic gold. The 37-year-old Serb has looked good in Paris so far with victories over Matthew Ebden, Rafael Nadal, Dominik Koepfer, and Stefanos Tsitsipas.

Despite those results, Djokovic is a question mark–as he has been basically this entire season–heading into his next match. Against Tsitsipas the world No. 2 seemed to tweak the same knee that he injured at the French Open. He fell into a huge second-set deficit only to recover for a 6-3, 7-6(3) victory over the Greek on Thursday night.

This pretty much all comes down to Djokovic’s physical status. When healthy he has been playing well this week and he obviously couldn’t be more motivated for a maiden gold medal. But if he is anything less than 100 percent, a red-hot Musetti is definitely playing well enough take advantage.

Pick: Djokovic in 2

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