Nitto ATP Finals title match preview and prediction: Sinner vs. Fritz

It will be a rematch of the U.S. Open final–and of a round-robin contest from earlier this week–when Jannik Sinner and Taylor Fritz meet one more time at the Nitto ATP Finals, this time with the title on the line.

Sunday’s grand finale marks the fourth encounter between Sinner and Fritz, with the Italian leading their head-to-head series 3-1. He has won three in a row since losing to the American 6-4, 6-3 at the 2021 Indian Wells Masters. Sinner prevailed two years later in Indian Wells via a 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 decision and he has dominated both matchups in 2024–6-3, 6-4, 7-5 at Flushing Meadows and 6-4, 6-4 on Tuesday night in Turin.

It has only been full steam ahead for Sinner since he made quick work of Fritz during his undefeated trek through Group Ilie Nastase. The world No. 1 also took care of Alex de Minaur and Daniil Medvedev before routing Casper Ruud 6-1, 6-2 in the semifinals on Saturday night. Sinner is now 69-6 this season with a pair of Grand Slam titles at the Australian Open and U.S. Open.

Fritz cannot be entirely discounted given his current level of play–which has really been on display all season long. The world No. 5 is 52-22 after compiling a 2-1 record in the group stage (lost to Sinner, beat Medvedev and De Minaur) and pulling off a huge 6-3, 3-6, 7-6(3) victory over a red-hot Alexander Zverev in the semis.

Unfortunately for Fritz, the chips are stacked against him in this one. Sinner is playing every bit like the top-ranked player in the world, he has home-court advantage in Italy, and he has Nitto ATP Finals championship match experience–albeit in a loss to Novak Djokovic last year. And, again, he just eased past Fritz five days ago.

All signs point to Sinner going one step farther than he did last year in Turin, lifting the trophy in style.

Pick: Sinner in 2