Nitto ATP Finals SF preview and prediction: Federer vs. Tsitsipas

Roger Federer and Stefanos Tsitsipas will be squaring off for the fourth time in their careers and for the fourth time this season when they they clash in the semis of the Nitto ATP Finals on Saturday afternoon.

Federer leads the head-to-head series 2-1 despite losing their first encounter 6-7(11), 7-6(3), 7-5, 7-6(5) in round four of the Australian Open. The Swiss triumphed one month later in the Dubai final via a 6-4, 6-4 decision and he just recently prevailed by the exact same scoreline this fall in Basel.

Tsitsipas is the lone London debutant in the semifinals, having won Group A with straight-set victories over Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev. The 21-year-old Greek fell to Rafael Nadal 6-7(4), 6-4, 7-5 on Friday afternoon but remained on top thanks to Zverev’s victory over Medvedev in the nightcap. Even though Tsitsipas is No. 1 in the group, he has a less favorable semifinal matchup with Group B runner-up Federer as opposed to Group B winner Dominic Thiem.

Of course, the world No. 6 probably won’t mind getting another shot at a Big 3 opponent. He has already defeated Nadal, Federer, and Novak Djokovic in his brief career and almost took down the world No. 1 again on Friday despite having already qualified for the semis and even though a loss would mean a chance to avoid Federer on Saturday.

The 38-year-old finished second in his group after bouncing back from a 7-5, 7-5 loss to Thiem in his opener. He followed it up by beating Matteo Berrettini 7-6(2), 6-3 and taking an elimination match against Djokovic 6-4, 6-3 on Thursday night.

“(Federer) is just flawless and doesn’t use too much of his power to play,” Tsitsipas commented. “I have to play well. I know that; everything counts in the semifinals of the O2.”

The underdog will likely have to play incredible, in fact, as Federer’s level against Djokovic was off the charts–25 winners and seven unforced errors, to be exact. Federer also benefits from an extra day of rest, while Tsitsipas must rebound from a two-hour and 52-minute thriller against Nadal. Still, it could be competitive because the underdog has been stellar the whole way this week and he almost always rises to the occasion against the best players in the world.

Pick: Federer in 3

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107 Comments on Nitto ATP Finals SF preview and prediction: Federer vs. Tsitsipas

  1. Thiem and Fed to meet in the final, Fed will win both the SF and final to close this decade in style, like Rafa ( with fifth YE no.1). This is compensation for losing out on the Wimbledon title.

    It’ll be wonderful for the big three if Fed wins here, so all big titles – slams and YEC – are won by the big three., and each has at least won a Masters title too and remains the TOP three at the close of this decade.

    Go Fed, show these youngsters what the big three can do, regardless of age!

  2. Doubt Fed would win, it becomes normal to see him playing brilliant one day, and the next day high UE, low first serve percentage.

    Tsisi in 3.

    • Tsitsipas will be tired after the three hours high intensity match vs Rafa and without a one day rest. He may be paying the price for that match.

  3. Is Tsitsipas on fire or is Fed being below par?

    It seems that Tsitsipas is more aggressive than Fed, which is quite surprising. Come on Fed, after the good job done vs Djoko, please don’t come back down to earth so soon, you still have job to finish!

    Tsitsipas looks fresh even after the three hour match yesterday; I guess that’s the advantage of being young.

    • That was tough. Fed with so many chances to break. He is not looking like the Fed who beat Novak. I think he had to play his best match to get by Novak. But Tsitsipas has come out playing some stellar tennis.

      I am proud of Rafa for beating him and Medvedev after a difficult start. I knew once he had the abdominal injury that is pretty much messed up any chance he might have had to win in London. But with the year end #1, I am very happy.

      I kind of wish Rafa would skip Davis Cup and call it a year. I want him to be able to start practicing, not at the last minute. I want him to be able to play in one or two warm up tournaments so he can come in ready. I want him to have the best chance to give it another shot at the AO.

      • I don’t suppose he can skip Davis cup although I do agree with you nny. Let him go home and rest the knee and have treatment and be as prepared as best he can for 2020. Needs a good preseason unlike last year.

  4. Well Rafa won’t be playing as aggressively as Tsitsipas does against Fed, it’s just not Rafa’s style.

    Fed could be overpowered by big serving and big hitting, which is what Tsitsipas is doing now. Tsitsipas seems to be playing with the right game plan vs Fed.

    Having said that, Fed has just hit an incredible BH CC return, what a shot! He’s working hard to stop the Tsitsipas express train. Oh wow, some incredible hitting in this ninth game of set one by both. Fed still trailing though…

    • Yes, a couple of formidable points from both
      Tsitsi is very, very aggressive. It’s like the loss to Rafa motivated him even more. Indeed, this is the only way he can beat Fed.
      Fed didn’t convert any if those 6 opportunities. He’s still in the game though.

      • 1st set looked a bit like that 2019 AO match. Tsitsi converted his 1/1 break point, while Fed fails to do so even at 0:40. Hopefully 2nd set will be different.

  5. Set one to Tsitsipas after some incredible points by both. Fed really plays well in the ninth game, just too bad he has to make some errors.

    Tsitsipas is serving so well today, with some DTT serves that wins him some crucial points including the last SP. Why couldn’t he serve like this vs Djoko at Paris Masters; really can’t stand the way he played in that match getting humiliated by Djoko, winning only three games!

  6. I don’t think Fed can produce his best tennis all the time now. Not being able to take advantage of 0-40 and six break chances is just not good enough.

    Tsitsipas seems very pumped up here. Very focused and determined. Now he has 0-30 on Fed’s serve. This could be over quickly.

  7. If Fed is a few years younger, I bet he’ll be the one winning the first set. The 17 years age difference really means something, when the younger player is playing so relentlessly aggressive, not giving Fed any time to breath!

  8. Ya, but Fed did what he came to already. At his age, why knock himself out to win every point here when he needs doesn’t want to risk injury. Yes when he was younger he was all gunning to win every one of these. Mission accomplished knocking ou Nole.

  9. Some smart point from Fed, and then he finally breaks serve. Will this match be like the one yesterday vs Rafa, when Rafa came back from one set down to win in three?

    Let’s see whether Tsitsipas can keep up the pressure and intensity.

  10. I really don’t want to see Tsitsipas winning this and becoming boastful after that. He tends to talk big these days after some successes, really don’t like him behaving like that, rather see him fails a few times and learns to be humble.

    • Agreed. That’s why I really wanted Rafa to beat him. He is a bit swollen headed. I find most of the young players get on my nerves tbh.

      • amy,

        I felt the same way about not wanting Tsitsipas to beat Rafa. He does have a big head and that I do not like. He said some things before the match with Rafa that really ticked me off. About wanting to beat Rafa so badly. Thank goodness Rafa was able to come from behind to get that win.

        These young guys get too big for their britches. Let them win a slam finally before they get all full of themselves.

        • If a young Rafa was out there and won today he would absolutely emphasise that Fed wasn’t playing well. Big difference between him and Tsitsi and Zverev. That’s one of the reasons we love him!!

        • But he said after the match that he was conserving some energy for the SF and didn’t go all out to beat Rafa. It’s ridiculous that he spent almost three hours on court yet he said he was conserving energy!

          I really can’t stand that kind of mentality, it’s like some self denial, bluffing himself and bigging up himself, that he’s not playing his best that’s why he lost, and that when he’s playing his best, he would have beaten Rafa! It’s kind of arrogance to think and said that (that he didn’t go all out to win), such disrespect to his opponent.

          I wonder it’s because of his poor use of his words in English or he really meant what he said.

          • I heard what he said and it really annoyed me! He meant it I reckon! Needs a reality check as he was well beaten by rafa in the end!

    • Why has Fed not brought the game he played against Djokovic? I was convinced he would overcome Tsits and win easily. Apart from Tsits bragging, the commentators are all aboard his bandwagon. He has already been branded a super star with a swagger. I’m so pleased he didn’t get the better of Rafa and though none of the commies has ever admitted it, they all know Rafa was rusty when he lost to him in Madrid.

      • Painful to watch Fed beat Djoko for once then lose to a guy who isn’t a shade of Nole, but it’s not unusual these days. As others have said, he’s just less consistent match-to-match, and when the serve isn’t working the UE’s go up.

  11. Come on Fed, time to pounce and get back on serve; it’s at around this time in set two that Tsitsipas made more errors and lost the second set to Rafa yesterday.

  12. Federer having the kind of day Rafa had with Zverev. But good on Tsitsi to take advantage. Thiem-Tsitsi will be intriguing and will ensure another new champion.

    Vamos Tsitsi!! Well Done. Started and ended the year beating Roger!

  13. Fed won 35 receiving points in what 10 service games . Thats like 3.5 receiving points per serve on an average and he broke once !

  14. I was shocked to read what Tsitsipas said about losing to Rafa! Is he kidding with that nonsense? So he was conserving energy for the semifinal? I call bs on that! He said before the match with Rafa, that he really wanted to beat him. Give me a break! Yet after he lost he made up some total crap about not trying that hard to conserve his energy. It’s kind of pathetic in a way. This self-entitlement among the young guys is quite unappealing.

    • Alright, what Tsitsipas said was that he was leaving something in his tank for the SF, and so he wasn’t willing to go all out and ‘die’ on the court to beat Rafa. He said he was getting close (I suppose he meant getting close to beating Rafa again, after so many tries and with only one win, at Madrid).

      I don’t know whether it’s because of his choice of words in English, that made him sound arrogant, or he really meant that because he wanted to do well in the SF, and so he not being able to empty his tank to go all out to play against Rafa would be impossible for him to beat Rafa the ultimate fighter, the world no.1.

      I watched a short YouTube of his presser after the match, he didn’t sound as arrogant as I thought, and he wasn’t arrogant in his on court interview after beating Fed; I’ll give him the benefit of doubt this time. I hope he learns to be humble even when he starts winning big and winning against the big guys.

      • You have said he has made a number of conceited remarks lucky! I don’t know because I spend a lot of time away from tennis..
        I thought he really wanted to beat Rafa and just got outplayed. Pity Rafa can’t play him and beat him again! That would be heartwarming!😀

    • Lol, yesterday he was going to “leave his soul” out there then after he loses he “decided he didn’t want to die”. Well, he did not LOOK like a zombie today but…heh, maybe it was more that Fed looked like a ghost of himself? But maybe Tsitsi is just good at saving them? He saved a lot v Rafa yesterday before Rafa finally converted one in each set. Just enough.

      I hope Thiem wins! He isn’t colorful but he’s humble and very hard-working. Maybe I’m past the days when “flashy” appealed to me.

  15. Thank you Berdych for everything!
    This guy would probably have won at least a slam, if the the top 4 were going on a holiday for a period 😉
    I hope Roger learns something from the match vs Tsitsipas in AO and here (especially about converting bps).
    Vmk1, yes it’s surprising reallly. But he also creates more bps than most of them. He played today much better when Tsitsi had game point than on those 12 bps… It’s a mental thing.
    Anyway, Tsitsi played amazing. I find it impressive that he was returning almost all of those aggressive balls from Fed. So few UEs, it impressive… Regarding his attitude, yes, he needs to be humbled.

    • Seriously sanju! Unless they get injured that is very implausible. What have the young players done at the slams?! Nada. Dimi won the wtf and didn’t do anything. Ditto Zverev. Wtf has become something of an aberration rather than a marker for the next year now the big 3 are older and tired or injured at the end of the year. BO5 at a slam is a completely different ball game.
      Thiem is the only one getting to slam finals ie RG and he is 26!

      • But amy..the next gen is getting better and the big 3 are getting older. The flip n switch has to happen sometime soon i believe. Thiem i think maybe the first one to win. He has mentality of a champion.

        • He is 26!if he is so strong mentally how come he hasn’t done more?! Nole will rightly be the fave for AO and Rafa the fave at Rg.Hard to see anyone outside the big 3 winning wimby…uso is only slam which is a bit unpredictable..
          I like Dom, don’t get me wrong!😀

          • This year has been his breakout year amy.he won his master’s…he beat roger thrice ..he beat the top 3..he overcame pressure to win at home..

            Watch him out next year

      • Novak is already carrying an injury, whether it’s his elbow or his shoulder is debatable. I think it’s his rotator cuff right shoulder and he keeps going by treatments like pain pills and injections. But it’s not the answer. He has not faced the reality of getting the kind of procedure he needs. But it’s not an easy decision. He would need a lot of time off.

        He was aiming for Paris and WFT this fall – he was okay through Paris but now good enough to reclaim #1. In the past he would have been good to go.
        Right now he just living with damage and doing damage pain control.

        Federer is done hahaha I laughing at myself for typing it because I thought he was done many times and he comes back, even if it’s for one fine performance showing his grace and skills.

        Rafa is the most solid, imo. Strong enough to go back to back – he’s managing his past problems and taking care of himself the best. He can possibly win AO and probably win more than one RG – maybe another USO. He’ll pass Federer’s GS count…oh so humbly 😀 My guess is 23 or 24 GS.

        So I’m in closer agreement with Sanju about 2020. A couple new GS winners or at least one new one.

        • Who said Nole carrying injury ? I thought he did surgery post 2017 n even after USO.19 .he did right ? I thought he had procedure post uso .

          • Yes he did but he needs another one and he’s electing not to do it apparently. He couldn’t even toss the ball up last summer – so it could be his left shoulder too. We’ll see how he turns up for AO. I hope I’m wrong but there are other Nole fans out there that are in agreement.

          • No he didn’t get anything done in 2019 post USO but a consult with a specialist. IMO, he should have gone for it (whatever surgery or procedure he needs, if he intends to compete for longevity and pass Rogers GS count. Novak is different. He may well say no, it’s too drastic and risky – he may value nature taking it’s course or something like that. He’s a strict vegan. He’ll but what he thinks is best for his body long term first before sacrificing himself to tennis.

            Perhaps he simply needs more time.

          • Yeah, was his left that troubled Novak this past summer. In 2017 and early 2018 it was his right. He diddled around for a long time before getting what he called a “small intervention”. I looked up “medical intervention” and found out it could be pretty much anything from acupuncture to yoga, even prayer, although that might be “divine intervention”.

          • Oh dear, Ramara, that was it. He had a consult and an “intervention.” For my own selfish reasons I was wanting him to fix that LEFT shoulder and right elbow ASAP. And when he didn’t I was disappointed. But it doesn’t matter what I want lol. I’m certainly a skeptic about acupuncture, divine intervention and prayer. Yoga is good but i suppose can be quite bad in some cases!!

            As I said, I won’t be a critic. I accept his choices, as strange as they are to me. We all have our own beliefs and make choices around those.

            At least maybe he’d get his DNA tested – some people really should eat animal protein, imo. But vegetarians and vegans have their special knowledge of how to create a complete protein equivalent to animal protein. I don’t eat cow anymore. Because methane and my commitment to doing what I can about climate change – reducing my carbon footprint.

          • Elizabeth, thanks for the info re: Novak. I haven’t followed this closely, but I suspected that something might be wrong and I was very surprised by his London results. After Paris I really thought he was in the pole position for the year-end no.1 ranking since Rafa’s health was also a bit iffy. I have to look up the head-to-head of Thiem and Novak. Thiem has beaten Novak in a couple of really important matches now!
            It’s strange that the no.1 and no.2 players didn’t make it out of round robin this year. That might actually be a novum. I don’t think that this has happened, yet. The gladiators are tired.
            We have to see how Novak will manage his problems next year. It’s indeed quite possible that right now Rafa is the most stable player of the Big Three and the rest of the pack. While Roger still can conjure his magic now and then, I truly feel that his big trophy winning days are finally over. He will still be a strong contender, but there will probably always be someone who will beat him. No player can beat age forever, although Roger has acquitted himself admirably so far. I honestly don’t think that Rafa will still play at the same age.

        • Who would it be who would win Elizabeth?
          I didn’t realise Nole was in so much pain, that’s horrible. Must be very difficult for you to watch. I didn’t see the match against Fed but I would have got very annoyed with the crowd. I have got really angry before when they go after him. But to watch him go through that knowing he is in pain…ugh! Don’t know what the answer is because leaving the game for a long time is very high risk…
          I still really like Nole. I find his generosity and sense of humour very endearing.

          • Yes I do get very annoyed and angry with the crowds. And I do feel bad for Nole. But I also am very proud of him doing what’s best for his body and won’t be a critic about it. His achievements are huge – he’s a legend.

            Well Nole does have charm and a good sense of humor but remember how emotionally miserable he was and behaving badly/ acting out by the time he won the Nole Slam in 2016. I could barely stand his on court behavior. That is not him.

          • I don’t know who will win, amy 😀 I just think that two of the big three are less likely to win what they usually do and I don’t think, even as strong as Rafa is that he’ll get the Calendar Slam in 2020 or ever. It’s hard. Rafa should have done that earlier in his career. But what do I know!? Rafa has shown some of his best tennis recently!

            Passing Roger’s GS count won’t be too much trouble for Rafa, unless his body breaks down in some way. Truly hope not. Rafa is managing better as he gets older.

            Novak’s body has a tough time recovering and sustaining his best right now. Roger’s recovery time is also in question. Best of five? His best chance may have been last Wimbledon or the Wimbledon before that.

            Taking cover/ getting ready for the lightening to strike me!!!

          • Ah so you chickened out on predicting a winner rc! I think you and sanju should name names, well sanju has gone for Dom to be fair..
            I don’t think one can count Fed out yet…he played amazing at wimby really flattening Rafa in the semis…he is like a pheonix always resurrecting himself when he seems done…
            I still see Nole winning at least one slam. 😀

          • It’s not an easy decision to get surgery on your body .it always should be last resort .rem how long Andy waited till he knew he had no other choice

          • Rafa will win one I think .I hope it’s ao though. I’m going by history too .after he’s ended a year no 1, next year he has won only one slam..be it 09,11,14,18. So maybe history will repeat ..Novak may take one too .fed can surprise more at ao I feel as rod already said roger can win the ao next year which means courts will be very fast..I think Thiem will win one..

            So ao Rafa/fed

            French Rafa / Thiem

            Wimby novak/ roger

            USO : new one as it’s Olympics year

          • Well if Dom is going to win one that would mean he wins Rg according to your list. I sincerely hope not! Nole should be in the mix for AO.
            Hard not to see Rafa and Nole in the mix for the USO as they have won 7 of the last 10, including the last 3.

      • I did not say i will root for thiem i think . I said thiem can win 2020 french as he has been knocking on door for 2 years. And i like thiem,nice guy. I just want Rafa to get 20 n will be happier if he gets it at Australia to get double career slam. Double career slam and 20 both at same slam will be huge

        • I left you a reply on daily picks, Sanju. It was no I wasn’t cheering for Fed but I thought he could beat Tsitsipas 🙂 I guess not – he wasn’t sharp enough. But his one perfect performance was meant to take out Nole. Had Roger faced Rafa today he would have preformed better – perhaps won. But those performances are meant for his biggest rivals chasing his records! It’s true.

          • Secondly everyone’s mentality regarding surgery is different .Rafa maybe easier to get it done. Novak may not be open to idea easily. Unless it’s life threatening one should not . But in sports you lose precious years if you delay, so maybe sportsmen have to think differently..also no surgery is foolproof

          • God you are too much Augusta hehe..that post may have been just the sheer tension release of Rafa winning a slam..I’m liking tsitsipas n Thiem for sure but not at cost of Rafa . Rafa till he plays, if not him then Thiem n tsitsi

          • Statistically it’s certainly a possibility that Novak and Rafa will manage to win the so far elusive double career slam in 2020. But I don’t think it’s very likely. If Rafa manages to capture his 20th slam trophy, Paris is still the most likely location where he might catch up with Roger’s slam count.
            As to the AO – I dunno. It has been Novak’s turf for so long. But as Elizabeth has explained, he might’ve a niggling injury. So, it’s not certain that he will be fully fit at the upcoming AO.

  16. Warning- Long post!
    I am so happy to see Tsitsipas really showing up this year, and really competing with the Big 3, even if he hasn’t been consistent at the Slams. He’s such an awesome tennis player, and I really hope he can win this title, and then take it to the next level at the majors next year. When he’s on, he has the ability to blow Federer off the court.

    It’s interesting, though… A 38 year old lately getting blown off the court by young, powerful Tsitsipas and Zverev should not be surprising in the slightest…. but it is still a little surprising haha! It just shows how little confidence we, or I, have in those two guys to be be able to consistently use their power and dominate. It’s also a testament to how Federer has been able to stay so competitive with really only his serve as a major physical weapon anymore. Because he obviously has a high tennis IQ and is able to take time away from opponents, it usually makes up for his relative lack of raw power from the back of the court. But it’s all so dependent on his serve. These days if Fed serves 56% against a powerful top player, he’s screwed. But at this point in his career, I feel like I can’t even be disappointed in him when he loses a match like today, because it’s just so insane to me that he can still be qualifying for the WTF with only his serve as a real weapon! I know that Fed has always gotten props for his serve, but I really feel like it’s often been underrated because his average 1st serve speed isn’t 135 mph. I really believe it’s time time that we really look at Fed being possibly the greatest server ever. People too often bring up guys like Karlovic, Roddick, Ivanesevic, etc. in the greatest server discussion. I think that’s absolute nonsense because those guys didn’t win 20 major titles with the serve being the cornerstone of their game. Context matters in these discussions. Roddick at least got to #1 in the world and won a major with literally ONLY a serve, so I think he should at least be in the discussion. But in that 2009 Wimby Final, Fed won that match because he OUTSERVED Roddick. How many million times have we seen Fed serve perfectly placed served on HUGE points? It’s truly been the cornerstone of his game, and he is consensus one of the three greatest players ever. That has to mean more than just having a massive first serve.

    I think it’s time that we solidly put Federer in the greatest serve ever discussion with Sampras, with the two of them solidly above everyone else. These last few years have made it clear to me that he belongs there with Pistol Pete.

    • Completely agree about Federer’s serve. I’ve been lucky enough to watch Federer live and I think his serve is a thing of beauty — he accomplishes it so naturally. His movement and running forehand were incredible in his early years. Watch Federer win the masters in Houston 2003 – he just wow. His backhand in those days was great or not, depending on his back. I think Federer is smarter about protecting and strengthening muscles to guard back injury.

      And he all around more clever on court in his old age. Federer mentally improved with age – when he finally saw he needed to think and use strategy more and also gave in to a more modern racquet. I really do love Federer tennis. I don’t care if about protecting his GS record or any of his records. No one that watched him play tennis will ever forget him!!! Like Rafa, he is legend and so is Novak, imo. And Murray will always be a great. I loved Murray’s best tennis. And his personality in general.

      Best natural spot serve ever: my vote is for Federer.

      • I beg to differ, Sanju and Elizabeth. Federer has a beautiful and reliable serve and obviously he can back it up with the rest of his game, but Pistol Pete’s serve was still a tier above Fed’s serve. He could even serve aces on second serve when he was sick like a dog. But the greatest server I’ve ever seen was Goran Ivanisevic who was called the Lord Of The Thousand Aces. The problem with him was that he was a headcase – although a very lovable one – and of course the rest of his game wasn’t on the same level as Sampras’and Fed’s game. But Goran’s serve was so good that it was unreal. And if he hadn’t run into Sampras and Agassi a couple of times at Wimby, he would’ve won more than one Wimby title. Becker was also no slouch in the serve department.

      • I beg to differ: Fed is a wonderful server, but Pistol Pete was still a tier above Fed. And the vote for the server GOAT goes to Goran Ivanisevic, The Lord Of The Thousand Aces. He was unreal. The problem with him was that the rest of his game wasn’t on the same level as Sampras’ and Agassi’s Game – and he was a headcase, although a lovable one.
        Btw, Sampras finished six years in a row as No.1, which is probably a total underrated record and the only one Fed, Rafa and Novak didn’t take away from him. And Sampras has to thank Rafa for that because he intervened eventually and broke Fed’s stranglehold on the No.1 spot in 2008. Fed, Novak and Rafa all have still a chance to egalize or beat Pete’s record. But realistically only Rafa and Novak can do it, although Rafa has never ever defended his year-end pole position. This is often held against him. But one can also argue that no one ever managed to come back and regain the No.1 ranking as often as Rafa. And no player has ever managed to get to No.1 more than once over a time span of 11 years and until the advanced age of 33. Sorry for celebrating it a bit here. No disrespect to fans of other players. But I really think that Rafa achieved something very unique and outstanding this year.

    • Oh, I’ve always thought Federer was the best server around! I’ve considered his serve by far his best weapon despite the flashy shots and great movement. I don’t know how he compares with Sampras though. Certainly Rafa has a healthy admiration for Fed’s serve! 🙂

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