Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Zverev vs. Rublev

Alexander Zverev has charged up the rankings to No. 2 in the world and can secure the second seed at the 2025 Australian Open with a decent performance–or an early exit by Carlos Alcaraz–at the Nitto ATP Finals.

Zverev will kick off his week with a 10th showdown against Andrey Rublev on Monday night in Turin. The German leads their head-to-head series 6-3 and has won every single one of their matchups at Masters 1000s, Grand Slams, and the year-end championship. He is 5-0 against Rublev in such scenarios, including a 6-4, 6-4 rout during round-robin competition at this same tournament last year.

Rublev will be hard pressed to turn the tide on Monday. The ninth-ranked Russian really hasn’t put together a great season; he simply salvaged it by reaching Masters 1000 finals in Madrid (title) and Montreal (runner-up). Rublev is back on the skids with a 3-5 record in his last eight matches.


Zverev, on the other hand, is red hot. The 27-year-old is coming off a title at the Paris Masters, where he dropped just one set all week–to an in-form Arthur Fils in round three.

Moreover, Zverev’s Nitto ATP Finals history is much more impressive than that of his opponent. The No. 2 seed has won 14 matches all time at this prestigious event, including two titles (2018, 2021). Rublev is 4-9 lifetime and has qualified for the semis only once in four previous appearances.

All signs point to Zverev winning this one in convincing fashion.

Pick: Zverev in 2

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WWW: Zverev vs. Rublev?

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11 Comments on Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Zverev vs. Rublev

    • Definitely see him as a serious threat to Challenge Sinner in the final to win it all. Also keep in mind Sinner isn’t 100% healthy either. He made quite a few mistakes in his match today against Alex De Minaur. Some people will say it’s rest but evidently it’s not. Throughout the season he’s been battling an injury and that same injury was definitely flaring up during this battle. I still like Sinner to win it all but Zverev definitely poses as a threat to him more than anyone at the moment. It’ll be interesting if Zverev can keep up his form through Turin. I expect Sinner to do everything he can to give himself the best shot possible but he won’t be near 100%. The most 85%. He still looked very sharp even after his week plus hiatus from catching a virus.

    • I really like Zverev to win it in 2. The only lost set he had the past 5 matches was against an in form Fils. Andrew Rublev definitely has the capability of extending this match further and possibly stealing a set from the in form Alexander Zverev should he somehow come out firing on all cylinders but the way Rublev has playing lately based on his form I expect Zverev to win this in comfortable fashion while keeping in mind Rublev may not be 100% healthy. We can say he dropped out of the last tournament as a precautionary but I think he dropped out because his ticket was punched to Turin as a result to the rankings race. All in all Zverev should win this comfortably in 2 sets. But I do see the chance of 1 possible tiebreak set if Zverev doesn’t come out firing on all cylinders. I do feel that Rublev will look to Capitlize on any mistake.

      Zverev in 2 sets
      Over 22.5 games

    • Also one thing to keep in mind is Rublev consistently hasn’t been able to keep a cool head. If he loses his cool and doesn’t maintain his composure I also expect Zverev to end this match in a hurry. I’m curious as to Rublev if he’s keen on keeping his promise to play more cool headed and relaxed as to how he was during the season.

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