There is a good chance that Andrey Rublev will be eliminated from semifinal contention by the time he takes the court for his last round-robin match at the Nitto ATP Finals on Friday night.
Rublev is 0-2 in Group John Newcombe as he prepares to face Casper Ruud, who is 1-1. Friday’s afternoon session features Alexander Zverev (2-0, 4-0 in total sets) and Carlos Alcaraz (1-1, 2-2 in total sets). Any Alcaraz win or a three-set loss by the Spaniard mathematically knocks Rublev out of the equation.
He would only have himself to blame, of course. The Russian fell to Zverev 6-4, 6-4 before taking a 6-3, 7-6(8) loss at the hands of Alcaraz on Wednesday. He is now 4-11 all time at the Nitto ATP Finals.
On the bright side for Rublev, Ruud is far from an unbeatable opponent. The world No. 7 upset Alcaraz 6-1, 7-5Â on Monday but then lost to Zverev 7-6(3), 6-3. Ruud has played pretty well so far this week, but the Alcaraz result can largely be attributed to the Spaniard being less than 100 percent because of an illness. Ruud is 3-9 in his last 12 matches dating back to the U.S. Open.
Rublev needs Zverev to win in straights and then he has to beat Ruud in straights, at which point the second semifinal spot from the group would come down to percentage of games won between Alcaraz, Rublev, and Ruud. It’s an unlikely proposition for Rublev–but no matter what, you know he is always going to bring his best effort to the court.
Moreover, the world No. 9 is 5-2 lifetime in the head-to-head series. Both of Ruud’s wins have come at the Nitto ATP Finals, but one was in a third-set tiebreaker. Rublev has a good chance to make it 6-2 against the Norwegian, likely bowing out of the tournament with a win.
Pick: Rublev in 3
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Tough 1 to call but I completely agree spot on prediction.
If Rublev can hit the angles and try to make Ruud a little uncomfortable then maybe he can get the 2 sets he needs. It’ll be interesting to see how motivated these two are. Especially Rublev but there’s still ranking points involved and a sliver of a chance he can make it to the semis. Definitely watch out for Rublev to take the initiative early on and being aggressive to take easy points at the net. The net battle I think will be a huge factor in who wins this matchup. I’m siding with Rublev in two
If he can do this sorry most likely 3