Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Tsitsipas

Like Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer on Thursday night, Rafael Nadal faces a must-win situation at the Nitto ATP Finals when he takes the court against Stefanos Tsitsipas on Friday afternoon.

Nadal remains in dire straits despite staging a miracle comeback from being down 1-5, 30-40 in the third set against Daniil Medvedev in his second round-robin match. The Spaniard ended up prevailing 6-7(3), 6-3, 7-6(4) to keep alive his semifinal hopes, which looked close to zero following a 6-2, 6-4 blowout loss to Alexander Zverev and looked all the way at zero in the final set against Medvedev.

Tsitsipas, on the other hand, is already through to the semis thanks to straight-set victories over Medvedev and Zverev. The only way in which the 21-year-old would not win Group A is if he loses to Nadal and Medvedev beats Zverev in the nightcap. Those results would leave Nadal at No. 1 and Tsitsipas at No. 2. In any other scenario, Tsitsipas would win the group and either Medvedev or Zverev would finish second.

“It’s really good to know that I’ll be playing in the semifinals,” the world No. 6 said, “but I’ve got to concentrate, keep going the way I have been doing things the last couple of days. My last encounter in groups against Rafa; I am aware that he’s a difficult opponent to face. I’m sure this match is going to mean a lot to him for a chance for him to make it to the semifinals, as well.

“So I’m going to give it my all; I’m going to try to give my soul. I think it’s also a very good challenge for me in order to prepare for more difficult matches in the semifinals and the finals potentially, so this match is going to give me a lot.”

“I really hope that I can play better,” Nadal admitted following his escape against Medvedev. “I [was] better than [against Zverev], of course. I [was] playing a better level of tennis than the first day. [Winning] this match [was] a combination of a lot of things: lucky, some mistakes of Daniil, some good moments of myself at the end.

“But in general terms, knowing that I was not able to practice the way that I would like before the tournament, (to) be able to increase the level since two days ago to today like this is a very positive thing and I’m very happy with this.”

The world No. 1 may have to improve even more to beat Tsitsipas, who is the only undefeated player remaining in London. But it’s almost impossible to predict what kind of performance the Greek will bring to the table. He may not to want to expend too much energy prior to the semis and a loss could actually be a good thing in that it would give him a chance to face Dominic Thiem instead of the Djokovic-Federer winner. That being said, Tsitsipas has always been inspired and even thrived against the Big 3, so he could do it again–especially on a favorable surface with Nadal on the other side of the net.

If Tsitsipas loses either the first or second set, though, it would not be shocking to see him go away quietly like Thiem did in a meaningless match against Matteo Berrettini on Thursday.

Pick: Tsitsipas in 2

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120 Comments on Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Tsitsipas

  1. Rafa in two or three. After surviving the Medvedev match, Rafa knows he has to play better and he will, if not for the SF slot (out of his control should Sasha beat Medvedev), at least wins another 200 points and make it difficult for Djoko to become YE no.1.

          • If Djokovic wins and Rafa is runner-up with 1 RR win each, Rafa will be #1 with 10,185 points and Djoko on 10,045 points.

            If they both win 2 RRs, with Djoko winning the title and Rafa the runner-up, Rafa will be #1 with 10,385 points with Djoko on 10245 points.

            All Rafa has to do now is make the final to be YE #1. It won’t matter if Djokovic wins the title.

      • It will, psychologically it will be tougher for Djoko at least, anyway no need to worry now as Fed has done it (for Rafa).

        The 200 points will be handy come next year to at least pull away a bit from Djoko.

  2. I am going with Rafa. Not sure about how many sets. It could go to three sets. But Rafa has a lot to play for and the last match should give him a boost of confidence. Rafa is a fierce competitor and will give it his all.

  3. I was in the stands for Rafa vs Zverev. Although clearly 100% physically fit, Nadal was nowhere near match fit at starting time. He seemed to know it as he totally lacked confidence. Hence wrong tactics (basically always playing his BH cross court to Zverev FH, no net play, uninspired decisions, uncharacteristic unforced errors), short balls, mediocre serve (that was expected though). Obviously that got assorted with an almost flawless display from the Russian in the first set (inhuman first serve percentage and speed, line painting) and bad luck.
    Even so, Rafa was slowly getting the upper hand, but it was too little too late. He started playing decently by the middle of the second set, but the damage was done. If he saved just one of the two breaks in the first set the result would have been perhaps different.

    The canny tactician and never-say-die Rafa was back against Medvedev, but we have to appreciate how honest he was when assessing his incredible comeback.

    Now, the #1 Rafa will probably be back to demolish an uninterested Tsitsipas. The Greek is by no means an indoor specialist and even if the courts are ridiculously fast he’s probably no match for a fully fit Nadal. Looking at how Thiem-Berrettini went, Stefanos will probably preserve himself for the semifinal and Medvedev will try to either save face or qualify and will most likely beat a deflated “Sacha”.

    Like always, the London organizers did their worst. They disadvantaged Nadal and scheduled his match first agains common sense. Either way the second match of the day could have been “dead”, but there are far more chances that this happens if Medvedev-Zverev is the last. Besides, who really cares about any of them? Maybe only the Russians.

    I keep thinking how unfortunate Nadal is that the ATP finals are being kept in London for basically all of his career. This seems to have greatly contributed to his inability to win the event. This is also totally unfair – a country with mediocre tennis confiscating this event for more than a decade.

  4. Whatever happens now in Rafa’s and/or the other match in the group, I’m not so worried now after Rafa gets his YE no. 1; just hope for two good matches.

    Good luck to the player who has to play Fed in the SF; Fed is on fire, if he continues to play like that, no one can stop him and the WTF title will be his.

  5. Just realized that if Tsitsipas loses to Rafa he has a big chance to finish second and avoid Federer in the semis. Not sure that he will really “give his soul” under the circumstances as it’s highly unlikely (to say the least) that he would have enough left for Roger tomorrow.

    • Stefanos has performed well at his first WTF, though. Have to say he held serve to reach a TB this first set. I did not think that would happen.

  6. I think a Rafa let this tiebreak get away from him. Tsitsipas is playing very well. But Rafa are some errors he would normally not make.

      • amy,

        I don’t know. I still think that Rafa needs to be at his best here. I think he had a slow start with Zverev and that put him in a tough position. Now he can’t qualify on his own. He has to win and get help.

        He’s done what he can, but on this surface he has to come in ready and healthy.

  7. Whoever wins here will be slaughtered by Fed in the SF, so Rafa not winning this match may be a blessing for him. He’s just not good on low bouncing fast courts.

    Tsitsipas may do better than Rafa vs Fed; he at least has a bigger serve and plays more aggressive tennis (than Rafa), the court here suits his game style too.

    Rafa making too many errors with his BH, FH not that great either.

  8. Davis Cup in Madrid will be worse for Rafa when the ball moves quicker through the air at high altitude. Rafa is not made to play on quick courts, he’s too defensive and playing from too far back.

    • Rafa is not thinking about anything but winning this match – you know? It’s Rafa’s way – he’ll fight it out to the last ball and win in three sets if he has to.Only thing that would stop Rafa is something not right with one of his body parts.

      Surprising first set though.

  9. Rafa got dialed in in this return game (thought he would get the break) but Stef fought back with some clutchiness.

    my fingers get too shaky to post when my heart is racing.

  10. It seems that Rafa doesn’t understand how to play on low bouncing quick surfaces; he playing from well behind the baseline and waiting for the ball to come to him with the ball bounces so low when it reaches where he stands, no wonder he’s hitting into the net so often.

    Tsitsipas OTOH is trying to take the ball early hence getting it at a better height and so not having problem getting it over the net.

    Rafa should try playing close to the baseline or better still, moves inside the court!

  11. Roger Federer obviously wanted to win that Nole match ane it was a stellar performance by Fed. But seriously, can Fed repeat that kind of thing back to back to back?

  12. I really hope that Moya would time Rafa when he serves, and trains him to serve within 25 seconds without needing to look at the shot clock all the time. Imo, his first serve is very much affected by that shot clock, when he tends to feel rushed going through his routine before he serves, hence not being able to concentrate fully when serving the first serve.

    If he can serve consistently well (his first serve), that’ll help him a great deal, at least doesn’t need to fight so hard to win on the HCs (esp indoors) and also on grass.

  13. Tsitsipas reminds me of Murray against Fed at 2008 YEC. Murray back then had already secured his SF berth to play Davy, and was playing a meaningless RR vs Fed and yet he went all out to beat Fed.

    He lost to Davy rather meekly in the SF the following day, not a wise move by Murray. Why waste precious energy on a not so important RR match at the expense of the more important SF?

    I hope Tsitsipas doesn’t follow in Murray’s footstep here, he has bigger fish to fry in the SF.

    • Federer’s performance might be looked at like a one-off. Maybe not, but I don’t think Fed will win the WTF title. I don’t mean to be mean, just grumpy. LOL

      People here tend to think Fed is a lock. In the past I would agree. I have to see it to believe it. And I will be very happy for Federer and Fed fans if he win it but when was the last time he did that??

  14. Feels like Rafa should have broken already. Only 1-7 on break points. Is it an age thing the inability to convert break points? He and fed maybe hold some kind of record.

  15. Rafa’s inability to convert BPs may come back and haunt him. Why creates so many chances yet couldn’t take them? What’s the point?

    • amy,

      I am here! Just getting ready to go to the hairdresser. I answered you on the other page.

      Now I can leave happy. Rafa did it again. He has now done all he could and it’s up to whoever wins the match with Zverev and Medvedev. But he finishes on a high note.

      I am with Elizabeth in not being sure if Fed will win. Thiem and Tsisipas are looking good. He seems motivated and good for him if he does.

      I am just so proud of Rafa!

      • Rafa certainly deserves to be YE #1 !
        He is the strongest. I’m not sure about Rafa or Federer winning the title but…between the two, I pick Rafa. That’s right. Rafa was not going to lose today. He’s been in classic Rafa fighting mode.

        It would be awesome if Rafa did snatch the trophy 😀 Who is Dominic Thiem? LOL

      • Echo that! I am incredibly proud of Rafa! He fought like a lion and played beautifully. Tsitsi did well too, for a guy with little on the line.

  16. Rafa doing his Rafa stuff.. 😃😃 but got to feel it will be too tough to compete in the semis at his age after playing two three setters of three hrs.. if he qualifies. But 200 more points🤗

  17. Genuis! Not at his absolute best but playing so smartly. Great point-construction and finishing at the net.

    This was a very entertaining set and hats off to Tsitsi as well!

    Not sure how motivated Medvedev will be now but I think he will beat Zverev.

  18. Rafa digging out the big serves to get it done.

    And Rafa wins!

    Congratulations Everyone! Congratulations Rafa! Stefanos close but not enough

  19. VAMOS Rafa!! I am so happy for him, he keeps surprising me here!!! Nice win for him! Wow, Rafa is so tough!!

    This is so wonderful to see Rafa lift this trophy!!! Never saw it happening this year!!

  20. How will Rafa face fed tomm after playing such long matches…

    If Rafa makes it ..how many games will he win ..I just don’t see him beating roger at all after such a brutal match

    Rem 2010 .very long semi Vs Andy n then lost to roger in final

    • A decade ago. Rafa doesn’t ruminate over stuff like that does he? I say advantage Rafa. If Fed wins I will be happy for the fed fans, even the ones that hate Nole. And Fed will make me look stupid for picking against him. Nothing new. But I cheer for Rafa this time. Younger guys have years left to win the WTF trophy.

      • We cheer for Rafa too..i.know Rafa will fight but i just don’t see him beating Roger tomorrow esp after such long matches unless he is just destined for this.

    • Sanju, if Rafa reaches the SF, I think physically he’ll be ok because Fed right now would also want to finish his match quickly; he therefore will not let the match drag on the way Tsitsipas does. He’s also not that young anymore compared to 2010.

      Tsitsipas is not doing himself any favor by going all out to want to beat Rafa desperately, unlike Thiem who’s wiser not to over exert himself against Berrettini. If Rafa qualifies then Tsitsipas will have to play against Thiem, and it’ll be a physical battle which I feel Tsitsipas may pay the price for what he does today.

  21. Finally, Rafa wins the match, phew!

    Tsitsipas couldn’t generate a single BP chance, despite Rafa not having a big serve, that shows how good Rafa is ( and how hard Rafa has to work), to win points in his own service games to not to give Tsitsipas any chances to break him.

    Rafa otoh could generate 9 BP chances but could only take two of them, all thanks to Tsitsipas’s great serving.

    Thankfully Rafa wins this match and then they presented him his YE no.1 trophy, it’ll not feel as great receiving it after a loss.

    Fed has done his part to help Rafa; Rafa has done enough to help himself, let’s see whether Medvedev can do something to help Rafa later on. In any case, Rafa will have his 200 points to pull further away from Djoko, and one more win this season after this match.

    Tsitsipas plays very well but couldn’t keep up with Rafa’s intensity under pressure. I think indoor quick HCs may be another surface (other than clay) that Tsitsipas may do very well in future.

    • Tsitsipas is very good indeed. And so is Dominic Thiem, Medvedev and hopefully Sascha will find his way back to winning.

      For now though. This is all about Rafa.

      PS Hope Nole’s gets his problem fixed and wins AO again. Please Nole, do whatever it takes ❤️ I miss you.

        • Nole will be back rc!! He will be the fave at AO. Do you think he is too weak physically now? He has won 2 slams this last year afterall..he is very fit…

          • Yes, I agree he does not look his skinniest. But he’s not powerful or strong enough. He’s still feeling something in his right arm, is what I think. He needs to fix his trouble.

          • Andy Murray will be a welcomed relief if he can get back to winning big. Big four was always a better mix at the top, imo.

          • Yes, I think he’s too weak – mentally and physically. Physically he’s still having some issue with some part of his right arm. He can’t go full gas when he has to. He did last Wimbledon but he made whatever was hurting worse. It got better – Paris was encouraging. But he’s not at his best. Maybe he never will be again. He’ll be stuck at 16 GS and all the haters will be satisfied. 16 GS is certainly great but I feel he needs more for him to be even partially recognized by those who hate him. 🙁 Grumpy Frog.

  22. I really don’t mind if Roger wins tomorrow to be honest. I mean Rafa needs to rest and rejuvenate for AO 20!! This is where i have invested all my hopes!! I want him to be fit, healthy and ready, and t finally win this damn thing again!! And now that he is #1 that’s cherry on the cake! WTF, meh, I really don’t care!

    VAMOS!!

  23. Rafa willed to win ! Good part is he is not injured like last 2 seasons. And he wins against two very good next-gen players on his least favority surface after a bad loss against Zverev when he had all sorts of question marks coming into the tourney.

    I wont mind if he ends his season here. Its one of the best of his career from Barcelona to WTF with 2 majors to top off. He has been so very good in last 7 tourneys. He is like 800 points adrift from Djoker and for sure he is going to have no. 1 ranking for quite some time, possibly till Rome.

  24. @97InThe5th Jun 10
    Rafa Nadal will become the only player in history, male or female, to be World No.1 in three different decades.

    WOW!

    • Rafa made a ton of records for being the youngest to achieve something. Now he is making records for being the oldest! He is amazing…!😀

      • https://twitter.com/owlproduction67/status/1195390668149014532

        Erik Jonsson

        @erktennis
        Follow Follow @erktennis
        More
        This year is the lowest amount of tour clay points Nadal has accumulated but still finished YE #1

        9-7 in the 5th

        @97InThe5th
        8h8 hours ago
        More
        Good morning pundits, tennis wise, doubters, haters…

        ➖Most Weeks as No.1 after turning 30
        ➖Most Year-End No.1 after turning 30
        ➖Most Grand Slam titles after turning 30

        9-7 in the 5th

        @97InThe5th
        22h22 hours ago
        More
        📊 Oldest Year-End No.1

        33y 5m 🇪🇸 RAFA
        31y 7m 🇷🇸 Djokovic
        31y 6m 🇪🇸 RAFA
        29y 9m 🇨🇿🇺🇸 Lendl
        29y 8m 🇺🇸 Agassi
        29y 7m 🇬🇧 Murray
        28y 6m 🇷🇸 Djokovic
        28y 4m 🇨🇭 Federer

    • 9-7 in the 5th

      @97InThe5th
      22h22 hours ago
      More
      📊 Oldest Year-End No.1

      33y 5m 🇪🇸 RAFA
      31y 7m 🇷🇸 Djokovic
      31y 6m 🇪🇸 RAFA
      29y 9m 🇨🇿🇺🇸 Lendl
      29y 8m 🇺🇸 Agassi
      29y 7m 🇬🇧 Murray
      28y 6m 🇷🇸 Djokovic
      28y 4m 🇨🇭 Federer

      Good morning pundits, tennis wise, doubters, haters…

      ➖Most Weeks as No.1 after turning 30
      ➖Most Year-End No.1 after turning 30
      ➖Most Grand Slam titles after turning 30

  25. If rafas season stops here or he loses in SF. Is 9585 the lowest year ending total for a no 1 in past 10 years ..ofcourse Rafa played very less .but not crossing 10k for a no 1 is somehow unheard of right

      • Ok sorry 9985 but never seen a ye no 1 being below 10k. Zverev seems to be ahead in match…so looks like that’s where Rafa will stop..

    • Nah, Djoko was at 9045 last season as YE no. 1, even lower than Rafa’s this season at 9985, go check the stats. So, Djoko really ‘steal’ the no. 1 ranking from Rafa last year when Rafa was injured and skipped the whole Asian and indoor events.

    • No, Djoko got 9045 points last year as YE no.1, worse than Rafa this year; you’re always so negative where Rafa is concerned! The Djoko fans never criticise Djoko for being no.1 with only 9045 points. Who cares how many points one has to get to no.1, when what matters is to get to no.1!

      • I agree with you luckystar completely. It’s getting ridiculous honestly and I say that respectfully.

        Nadal wins the US open, everybody and their brother is talking about how awesome medvedev is and he’s the best thing since sliced bread and incidentally the great medvedev coudnt win a single match in the WTF. Ofcourse there will be an excuse for that, he’s tired from winning everything but if it was rafa-cue the criticisms with zero excuses.

        Nadal wins French open, they talk about how thiem is great and actually got closer this time and by next time he will win plus rafa is just a clay court specialist so nothing new in him winning on clay.

        Nadal becomes year end world no.1 He has less points than any year end world no.1 ever.

        The negativity is getting ridiculous. If it was djokovic or federer, they will be praised to high heaven but rafa will have a certain level of underappreciation and criticism hurled at him.

        What rafa achieved this year is incredible and very inspiring. He is a wonder, PERIOD. His MIND is his greatest asset and a global priceless treasure. He is such an inspiration. Steve tignor sums it up perfectly below and with that i rest my case:

        https://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2019/11/rafael-nadal-stefanos-tsitsipas-nitto-atp-finals-round-robin-london/85989/

  26. Rafa out ..too bad…wtf will forever be jinxed…fed wins 2 matches goes through .Rafa wins 2..is out..

    Fed is the clear fav now . Tsitsi I think has no chance ..Thiem outside chance

  27. Also, it reflects badly on the rest of the field, that Rafa playing so few events, yet he’s still able to be YE no. 1 with 9,985 points.

  28. Damnt it the wtf is such a bugbear of a tournament for Rafa. He will either run into an on fire djoko/fed when fit, be injured and forced to skip or be forced out through a permutation despite winning two matches

    Good part is that he has enough rest for the new season

    • Rafa did the best he could. He finished in a winning note. This silly tournament with its round robin and countless scenarios, has never been my favorite.

      Rafa did what he could after getting that freak abdominal injury in Paris. Things have to go perfectly for him in this tournament. He came in rusty without enough practice and that hurt him in his first match.

      It is what it is. The key for me is that Rafa ends this season in good shape. As long as he can be ready for the 2020 AO.

      Rafa has the considerable consolation of being year end #1 and I choose to focus on that. I also could honestly care less how many points he ended up with this year. His results show that he deserved it.

    • Well, he didn’t win against against Zverev, which is the problem. It’s a gift that you get a second chance if you lose a match, but it’s not a guarantee. What I want to know is if Zverev got advance because he beat Rafa, or if it was because he lost fewer sets than Rafa through round robin.

      • Lost fewer sets.

        All three of Rafa, Tsitsipas and Sasha had each won 2 matches with Rafa beating Tsitsipas, Tsitsipas beating Sasha and Sasha beating Rafa. So it all came down to sets won and lost – Rafa lost out to both as he had won 4 sets and lost 4 sets, whilst Tsitsipas had won 5 sets and lost 2 sets (so he’s no. 1 in the group) and Sasha had won 4 sets and lost 2 sets so he finished as no. 2 in the group.

  29. Kevin i know all about the format, just dont like it , never have, never will, other posters that do, then each to their own, their perogative, prefer the GS , no second chances, win your in , lose your out, simple as that ….

    • Alison,

      I agree with you all the way! I know the format quite well after all these years. But as you said I have never liked it. The whole thing is silly. I hate round robin. It feels so artificial. So you lose and get a second chance to lose by the number of sets won and lost. Big deal!

      I like playing and if you lose then you are out.

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