Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Medvedev vs. Fritz

Taylor Fritz
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The 2024 Nitto ATP Finals will begin on Sunday afternoon in Turin, Italy with a round-robin showdown in Group Ilie Nastase between Daniil Medvedev and Taylor Fritz.

Surprisingly, Medvedev and Fritz have faced each other on just one previous occasion. It came at the 2022 Cincinnati Masters, where the Russian rolled to a 7-6(1), 6-3 quarterfinal victory.

Fritz, of course, has become a much more consistent player since that meeting. The 27-year-old American punched a ticket to the Nitto ATP Finals in 2022 and ultimately reached the semis, just barely missed out on the festivities in 2023, and qualified with ease this season. Fritz has captured titles in Delray Beach and Eastbourne to go along with a breakthrough Grand Slam run to the U.S. Open final (lost to top-ranked Jannik Sinner). The world No. 6 has been up and down since leaving New York, but a semifinal performance at the Shanghai Masters gives him some momentum heading into Turin.

As for Medvedev, he may the subject of tennis’ most shocking statistic in 2024: he has not won a single tournament. The world No. 4 still qualified comfortably for the year-end championship thanks to his consistency, but the lack of a title is alarming–and that’s an understatement. Perhaps even more concerning is that Medvedev is just 6-6 in his last 12 matches dating back to the U.S. Open.


On the bright side for the 28-year-old, he is a former champion of this prestigious event (2020) and finished runner-up in 2021. Medvedev also advanced to the semifinals last fall (lost to Sinner), but he has twice compiled a winless 0-3 record in round-robin competition (2019 and 2022).

Given his current form, Medvedev could revert back to his round-robin futility this time around. Fritz is confident right now and he played well in Turin two years ago, so he looks poised to take advantage of a vulnerable opponent.

Pick: Fritz in 3

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