Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Alcaraz vs. Ruud

Carlos Alcaraz
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It will be a rematch of the 2022 U.S. Open final when Carlos Alcaraz and Casper Ruud clash in the round-robin stage of the Nitto ATP Finals on Monday afternoon.

That’s how you would hype up this contest. In reality, however, it’s a relatively uninteresting–and lopsided–matchup between two players who are limping into Turin without much confidence.

Alcaraz, of course, could heat back up at any moment and go all the way to the title. However, the third-ranked Spaniard lost to Tomas Machac in straight sets in the Shanghai quarterfinals and then got upset by Ugo Humbert in the Paris third round–dropping the first set of their three-setter by a 6-1 margin. Moreover, a fast indoor hard court is Alcaraz’s least favorite surface. The 21-year-old qualified for the semis in his Nitto ATP Finals debut last fall, but he fell to Alexander Zverev in group play and ultimately got clobbered by eventual champion Novak Djokovic.

Ruud has been mired in a significant slump since the end of the clay-court swing. The seventh-ranked Norwegian is a horrendous 2-8 in his last 10 matches dating back to the U.S. Open. Now he also finds himself on an unfavorable surface–probably his second worst, only ahead of grass.

Casper Ruud


Even worse news for Ruud is that he is 0-4 lifetime against Alcaraz. The 25-year-old is 1-9 in total sets, getting on the scoreboard just once during a 6-4, 2-6, 7-6(1), 6-3 setback in their final at Flushing Meadows two years ago.

This should be a perfect opportunity for Alcaraz to sink his teeth into this tournament and build confidence before facing a much more formidable foe in Zverev later in the week.

Pick: Alcaraz in 2

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