Carlos Alcaraz finds himself in the somewhat surprising position of pretty much needing a win his second round-robin match at the Nitto ATP Finals when he faces Andrey Rublev on Wednesday afternoon.
Alcaraz was a heavy favorite against Casper Ruud on Monday, but the 21-year-old Spaniard got upset 6-1, 7-5. Especially alarming was that a 5-2 lead in the second set evaporated with the loss of five consecutive games. The result can be somewhat explained by the fact that Alcaraz was dealing with an illness and clearly less than 100 percent, but it was still a discouraging performance. The world No. 3 is now 2-3 lifetime in Turin, having compiled a 2-2 record last fall (lost to Alexander Zverev in group play and to Novak Djokovic in the semifinals).
Rublev also doesn’t inspire a whole lot of confidence at the moment. The ninth-ranked Russian is 3-6 in his last nine matches after falling to Zverev 6-4, 6-4 on Monday night. He is now 4-10 all time at the Nitto ATP Finals.
Wednesday marks the third meeting between Alcaraz and Rublev, who have split their two previous contests. Alcaraz prevailed 7-5, 6-2 at this same event last year, but Rublev scored a 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 victory on his way to the Madrid Masters title this spring.
Although the four-time Grand Slam champion is obviously a considerable favorite in this win, he did not look good in his opening performance. Even when he is 100 percent, Alcaraz has never been especially impressive on indoor hard courts. He also hasn’t played well historically this time of year. It’s certainly not saying a lot, but right now Rublev is the more reliable of the two players. As such, an upset could be in the cards.
Pick: Rublev in 3
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