Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Zverev vs. Alcaraz

Everything is still to play for in Group John Newcome at the Nitto ATP Finals heading into a Friday afternoon showdown between Alexander Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz.

Zverev is off to a 2-0 start inside Inalpi Arena in Turin, Italy; Alcaraz is 1-1 through two matches. The German obviously advances to the semifinals as the group winner with a victory on Friday, and he will be in good shape regardless of his result. Alcaraz probably needs to win, but would still have multiple outlets with a three-set loss. If the Spaniard loses in straight sets, he would need Andrey Rublev to defeat Casper Ruud in straights and would then have to finish ahead of Rublev and Ruud in a percentage of games won tiebreaker.

The bottom line is that both guys have to go all out in this one.

Alcaraz was the favorite in this round-robin group when the tournament began, but that is no longer the case. The world No. 3 was under the weather in his opening match against Ruud and went down 6-1, 7-5. Alcaraz kept his tournament hopes alive with a 6-3, 7-6(3) defeat of Rublev on Wednesday, but it’s still difficult to have full faith in him. The 21-year-old has never played particularly well indoors and is just 3-3 lifetime at the Nitto ATP Finals.

Zverev, on the other hand, thrives at this event. He has won 16 matches all time following straight-set victories over Rublev and Ruud. Those results followed a title at the Paris Masters, where he dropped just one set throughout the entire tournament.

Friday marks the 11th meeting between these two players and the head-to-head series is all tied up at 5-5. Both of their previous indoor hard-court encounters have gone Zverev’s way; 6-3, 6-3 in the 2021 Vienna semifinals and 6-7(3), 6-3, 6-4 last year in Turin.

Alcaraz can be competitive if he plays like he did in his second match, but all signs point to a red-hot Zverev taking care of business.

Pick: Zverev in 3