Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Sinner vs. Medvedev

Jannik Sinner will be looking to wrap up an undefeated run through Group Ilie Nastase when he faces Daniil Medvedev at the Nitto ATP Finals on Thursday night.

Unsurprisingly, Sinner is off to a dominant start in front of the home crowd in Turin, Italy. The world No. 1 did not drop a set in his first two round-robin contests, beating Alex de Minaur 6-3, 6-4 and Taylor Fritz 6-4, 6-4. Sinner is now 67-6 for his 2024 campaign and 23-1 in his last 24 matches dating back to the start of the Cincinnati Masters.

The 23-year-old will be going up against Medvedev for the 15th time and it has developed into one of the tour’s most intriguing rivalries–one that has already told two different stories. Medvedev won their first six encounters, but Sinner has prevailed on seven of the last eight occasions to level the head-to-head series at 7-7. The headliner is the final of this year’s Australian Open final, in which Sinner erased a two-set deficit to triumph in five. Medvedev got some revenge with a quarterfinal upset at Wimbledon, but Sinner turned the tide back in his favor with a victory in the U.S. Open quarters and he also routed the Russian 6-1, 6-4 at the Shanghai Masters.

Just like in the rivalry with Sinner, Medvedev has been all over the place this week in Turin. The world No. 4 was mentally fragile against Fritz and his level of play wasn’t much better than his mentality in a 6-4, 6-3 loss. However, a completely different player was on display in match number two. Medvedev erased De Minaur 6-2, 6-4 in a composed, almost entirely error-free performance.

A factor worth noting is that the first match on Thursday between Fritz and De Minaur will have an impact on the semifinal qualifying scenarios. Sinner will already clinch his place on the weekend unless Fritz defeats De Minaur in straight sets. If that happens, the No. 1 seed must take a set to guarantee his progression. If Fritz wins in straights and Sinner loses in straights, it would come down to a percentage of games won tiebreaker between Sinner, Fritz, and Medvedev.

Regardless of those possible situations, Sinner is simply the much better player right now–plus he has home-court advantage in Italy. And even if he has already advanced, he will be eager to go undefeated in round-robin–and in the entire tournament.

Pick: Sinner in 2