Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Rublev

Novak Djokovic and Andrey Rublev will be battling at the top of the Nitto ATP Finals Red Group and trying to clinch almost certain semifinal qualification when they clash on Wednesday afternoon.

Djokovic opened with a 6-4, 7-6(4) victory over Stefanos Tsitsipas on Monday, cementing his status as clear title favorite despite being the seventh seed in Turin. The Serb is looking to secure a sixth title at the year-end championship (first in 2015), the first step of which would be a semifinal berth for 11th time in 15 trips. A final appearance would be Djokovic’s fourth in four fall tournaments, having lifted the Tel-Aviv and Astana titles before falling to Holger Rune at the Paris Masters.

The story is a much different one for Rublev, who has never enjoyed any success at the Nitto ATP Finals and did not head into this year’s event with a ton of momentum. He compiled 1-2 records in each of his first two year-end championship efforts (2020 and 2021). The seventh-ranked Russian lost his second match in both Vienna and Paris, but he raised his level in a big way on Monday to upset compatriot Daniil Medvedev 6-7(7), 6-3, 7-6(7).

Bouncing back from that physical and mental effort won’t be easy–especially not with Djokovic on the other side of the net. Rublev won their meeting in the Belgrade final this spring, but a round-robin encounter last year in Turin was dominated by the 21-time Grand Slam champion 6-3, 6-2.

Something similar–if not identical–to their 2021 Nitto ATP Finals matchup should be expected.

Pick: Djokovic in 2

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WWW: Djokovic vs. Rublev?

19 Comments on Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Rublev

    • Novak is playing too well and is wearing his green Super Gumby cape. Novak wiped the floor with Tsitsipas in the second set tiebreak. I was proud of Rublev in his match vs. Medvedev. Rublev got a small but essential confidence boost by beating his friend, Medvedev, in 3 sets, but I don’t see Andrey beating Novak.
      Novak in 2

  1. Novak was brilliant today. In this form he is virtually unplayable on a hard court. It’s a pity that Zverev isn’t here as he plays extremely well on this surface and is the player most likely to beat Novak imo.
    Novak’s serve is now a massive weapon.

    • Have to say I am pretty appalled at the prize money on offer. Nearly 400,000 for winning a round robin match and 4 million for winning the whole thing. RG and wimby are around 2 million for the winner so it seems ridiculous and excessive that this event, which is substantially lower in difficulty and prestige, is offering double the prize money for a slam. Way too much money on offer anyway imo.

      • I have no words for the amount of money they get. It should be an embarrassment. It’s the world we live in, amy. I don’t let myself dwell on the money and pretend they are more generous than greedy. Many of them live in tax havens.

      • It’s a prize for a year long effort. It incentivizes the players to become part of that group and motivates the very best players to keep playing for the full year. Otherwise, there would be a huge gap and the public would lose interest. It’s all about continuity.

    • Hello Amy,
      My mind is fuzzy, but I remember Sascha Zverev, and he seemed to have more trouble than his tennis injury. I hope he returns healthy and can play with a clear head.
      Novak appears challenging to beat at the moment. I can’t help but think Holger Rune and Carlos Alcaraz would make for more excitement at this ATP Final. Taylor Fritz is a worse numbskull than Zverev himself.

      • Hi Elizabeth!
        I was meaning to write to you as well as nny on non tennis forum. It’s very frustrating!!!
        I am not a fan of Fritz but nny likes him so I will be reticent in my remarks.
        Zverev definitely hasthe game to bother Novak on this surface.
        Rune and Alcaraz would have been better I agree. But Novak should have beaten Rune. He squandered loads of opportunities in very uncharacteristic fashion. Was brilliant today and massive fa ve to win AO as he is free to play there now.
        Should be 22 against 22 at RG. Still think Rafa will make it 23 there.
        Novak looks very Irish in that green! Like a giant shamrock!

        • The last time I posted on the non-tennis forum, I posted about the Idaho elections. I also posted perhaps too much detail, and it’s easy for me to feel guilty about it. If it was too much for Ricky to tolerate, I hope he deletes it and reopens the non-tennis page.

          • You have nothing to apologise for Elizabeth!!
            I read a very very disturbing article a short while ago about how fascist and extreme right wing militias are taking over GOP politics in Idaho and infiltrating electoral and public institutions so that GOP old timers go around heavily armed as they are justifiably worried they may be attacked. Terrifying and sickening.
            I don’t know if I could live in an area with so many extreme militias and so on.

  2. I just looked at the liv e rankings and added on wimby points. If you do that then Rafa is only 45 points or so behind Alcaraz and Novak is the #3. Novak would be only just behind Alcaraz if he won the wtf.
    As it is even if Novak wins Ruud may still hold the #3 ranking.

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