Roger Federer and Dominic Thiem will be facing each other for the fourth time in their careers when they potentially deal with a must-win situation at the Nitto ATP Finals on Tuesday night.
It is Thiem who owns a 2-1 lead in the head-to-head series, which has already been contested on all three surfaces–hard courts, clay, and grass (all in 2016). Federer got the job done 6-1, 6-4 in Brisbane, Thiem prevailed 7-6(2), 6-4 on his clay-court stomping grounds at the Rome Masters, and the Austrian picked up a more surprising 3-6, 7-6(7), 6-4 win on the lawn of Stuttgart.
Both Federer and Thiem are coming off opening losses in London’s Group B round-robin action. The 37-year-old had been 11-0 in his last 11 round-robin matches and was also 2-0 against Kei Nishikori this fall, but the Japanese world No. 9 scored a 7-6(4), 6-3 upset on Sunday night. It was an unexpected result given Federer’s recent success in that matchup in addition to the level he showcased in Paris, where he reached the semifinals and pushed Novak Djokovic to a third-set tiebreaker.
“You could tell it was sort of a first round,” the Swiss said of a sloppy contest in which Nishikori struck only six winners compared to 22 unforced errors and still won in straight sets. “[Thiem and I] haven’t played in a while…. I just know I need to do better than today. That’s pretty much it.”
The world No. 8 did better in his opening contest against Kevin Anderson but eventually went down to the Wimbledon runner-up 6-3, 7-6(10). Despite the setback, the high-quality second set arguably made it one of Thiem’s best performances in seven career matches at the O2 Arena (he compiled a 1-2 round-robin record in each of his first two trips). The French Open finalist is also 13-5 during this fall hard-court swing, an especially solid mark given that this is generally his worst time of year.
Federer will have to raise his level for this one, and that is something he has often been able to do as he sinks his teeth into tournaments and gets more comfortable. There will also be a greater sense of urgency for the world No. 3 knowing that he most likely has to prevail on Tuesday to keep his semifinal hopes alive.
Pick: Federer in 3
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Thiem in 3
Fed in 2.
Courts don’t favor Federer here. Anything Fed hits will get tracked down by Thiem. Thiem will handle Federer today.
Nishikori just got stomped by Anderson. Nishikori handled Federer. Anderson’s movements have improved throughout the year. Federer stands no shot on these slow courts.
they aren’t that slow.
but yes, Anderson will presumably be a favorite against Fed
They are slow when you think of years past. Isner was cranking out serves and Joker had no problem gettting to them because the ball doesn’t bounce for crap. You can’t use any type of spin on these courts either. Thiem is going to win the baseline battles against Fed today. Odds are way off.
Im telling you. Thiem will have enough time to beat Fed baseline to baseline. He lost to Fed on hard years ago but these courts are playing too slow. Maybe Roger will come out later and say he was injured but I dont care. I eant to win bets and Thiem will provide that today. Game spread and moneyline.