Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Federer vs. Nishikori

Roger Federer and Kei Nishikori will be facing each other for the 10th time in their careers and for the third time this fall when they meet again on opening night at the Nitto ATP Finals on Sunday.

Federer is leading the head-to-head series 7-2, including 6-1 on hard courts and 2-0 at the O2 Arena. The Swiss got the job done 6-3, 6-2 during round-robin competition in 2014 before surviving a more competitive 7-5, 4-6, 6-4 affair one year later in London. They just recently squared off at Masters 1000 events in Shanghai and Paris, with Federer prevailing 6-4, 7-6(4) at the former and 6-4, 6-4 at the latter.

The 20-time major winner is making his 16th appearance at the year-end championship, boasting a 55-13 record with six titles and four runner-up finishes. He may not be the overall favorite this time around because of Novak Djokovic’s current dominance, but Federer is still going strong at 37 years old and is expected to emerge victorious in Group B. The world No. 3’s 46-8 record in 2018 is highlighted by an Australian Open title and he recently triumphed on the indoor hard courts of Basel.

Nishikori seemed like an afterthought for London qualification when this season got underway, as he missed the Australian summer due to injury and began his 2018 campaign on the Challenger circuit. The Japanese veteran, however, has been on fire since the start of Wimbledon. He reached the quarterfinals at the All-England Club, advanced to the semis of the U.S. Open, and his fall-swing record stands at 14-5.

Of course, there is plenty of bad news for Nishikori heading into this one–and not just because of his recent straight-set losses to Federer. The world No. 9 is a mere 4-7 lifetime at the O2 Arena, with setbacks against Djokovic in each of his two semifinal trips (including via a 6-1, 6-1 beatdown in 2016).

This will be a tough test for Nishikori, who also lost his 2015 Nitto ATP Finals opening match 6-1, 6-1 to Djokovic. Look for a well-rested Federer to get off to a convincing start while improving to 12-0 in his last 12 round-robin contests.

Pick: Federer in 2

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