Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Federer vs. Anderson

Roger Federer and Kevin Anderson are set for their first rematch since a memorable Wimbledon quarterfinal clash this summer, and it will come in the same city.

Anderson stunned Federer 2-6, 6-7(5), 7-5, 6-4, 13-11 from match point down in the third set at the All-England Club, earning his first win over the 20-time Grand Slam champion in his fifth try. A second victory over Federer on Thursday night would send the South African through to the semis of the Nitto ATP Finals with a perfect 3-0 record in Group B round-robin action.

Just as he has been throughout almost the entire season, Anderson is in sensational form so far in London. The Wimbledon runner-up held off Dominic Thiem 6-3, 7-6(10) in his opener on Sunday before destroying Kei Nishikori 6-0, 6-1 on Tuesday afternoon. Anderson is now 48-17 for his 2018 campaign, which has him up to sixth in the rankings.

“Amongst the best I’ve played,” the No. 4 seed responded when asked to rate his match against Nishikori. “I served at a very high first-serve percentage and (was) still hitting my spots. If I’m hitting good first serves, it will be tough for any opponent to return it…. think the biggest factor though for me was really making a lot of returns being in almost every one of his serve games. He was missing a few first serves and I feel like the ones he was making I was putting a lot of pressure on him; and especially on the second serve, too. One of the goals was being a bit more effective on the returns the last few matches.”

Federer was all over the place during a 7-6(4), 6-3 loss to Nishikori, but he bounced back in style on Tuesday night to keep his hopes alive at the O2 Arena. The 37-year-old Swiss thrashed Thiem 6-2, 6-3, breaking four times and surrendering a mere six points in eight service games.

“I will do the same again tomorrow because it worked,” Federer said of his decision to not practice at all on his off day following the dreadful performance against Nishikori. “Important was not about my forehand or my backhand or my serve or anything; I guess it was my head. For that, sometimes you need a break. I’ve been playing a lot of tennis the last two months…. We came to the conclusion, or the coaches thought, ‘Take it easy, enjoy the day with your family, and come out happy. Again, when you play Thiem that’s what we care about: the head, not the shots.’

“The shots are there. I felt that way today. So I’m very happy that that was the right decision and I was able to show a reaction from my first-round match.”

With the win Federer remains very much alive for a semifinal berth, but he likely needs to defeat Anderson. As for Anderson, he may clinch a Saturday spot before he even takes the court–depending on the Thiem-Nishikori result. So the dynamics of this one could change before Thursday night, but for now it looks like Federer is back on track to the extent that he will be able to battle past Anderson in another tight contest.

Pick: Federer in 3

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13 Comments on Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Federer vs. Anderson

      • Well if Anderson can play like Khachanov, he’ll have his chances. Isner doesn’t have the movement of Khachanov or Anderson. I’m surprised how well Anderson could move his 6’8” frame.

        What Anderson should do is move to the net as often as appropriate, and serve with less predictability. Isner isn’t as quick with his movement and I feel he’s not very bright in his anticipation skills. I like how Khachanov could anticipate where Djoko was returning and was ready for that during their match in Paris.

        It’s not only Djoko who could return Isner’s serves, Rafa even has a clean record vs Isner! Murray too could handle Isner’s serves very well.

        • Nice plan but Anderson is not a great volleyer and uncomfortable moving in. I’m sure he’s working on it though and I wish him the best of luck today! Not just because I want the Djoker to lose but because Anderson is a really nice guy with a great wife and team behind him. He’s made impressive strides in the past couple of years, channeling his “inner Rafa”. 🙂

          • Anderson is not playing against Djoko but Fed in his next match! Anderson needs to play differently vs Fed, as Fed is the one who rushes the net, unlike Djoko.

  1. Match is on Anderson’s racquet. Hopefully his win over Federer at Wimbledon will allow him to execute mentally.

    Anderson in two.

    The tournament definitely misses the GOAT and conditions would have been perfect for him.

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