Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Cilic vs. Isner

Marin Cilic and John Isner will be facing each other for the 11th time in their careers when they likely battle for round-robin life at the Nitto ATP Finals on Wednesday night.

Cilic leads the head-to-head series 7-3, but the tide has turned drastically dating back to the fall of 2016. Once 0-6 lifetime against the Croat, Isner has won three of their last four encounters. The 6’10” American has taken each of their last two hard-court meetings; 6-4, 6-3 in Paris two years ago and 7-6(0), 6-3 earlier this season in Miami.

From a points perspective, Miami is the biggest reason why Isner finds himself in London (with an assist from withdrawals by Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro). After beating Cilic at 2018’s first Masters 1000 tournament, the world No. 10 got the best of Del Potro in the semifinals and fellow year-end championship participant Alexander Zverev in the title match. Isner went on to reach the semis of Wimbledon and the quarters at the U.S. Open before an abbreviated fall swing put a brief end to his London hopes.

Nadal and Del Potro allowed Isner’s season to continue, but Novak Djokovic was no kind of generous on Monday night. Making his O2 Arena debut, Isner went down 6-4, 6-3 to the world No. 1 while getting broken three times.

“This is a format I have never been a part of in any way, shape, or form,” the eighth seed noted. “It’s definitely been done before; you lose your first match, you are definitely not out of it. This next match is, of course, important. I got to try to stay positive and play a better match on Wednesday and see where I stand after that.”

The 33-year-old has a long way to go, however, before his Nitto ATP Finals record can become anywhere near as poor as Cilic’s. With a 7-6(5), 7-6(1) loss to Zverev on Monday, Cilic fell to 1-9 lifetime in London. Needless to say, the world No. 7 has never advanced out of round-robin competition in three previous appearances.

“I know the score,” Cilic said of his London record. “[The loss to Zverev was] a little bit of a disappointment for myself, having another match with chances and not taking them. That’s something that I’m not happy about. Also last year (here) it happened a couple of times, and the year before that. So against top guys like this, it hits me back.”

Thus continued a disappointing fall stretch for the 2014 U.S. Open champion, who is now 4-7 in his last 11 matches dating back to a U.S. Open quarterfinal setback. He has suffered bad losses to Sam Querrey, Jan-Lennard Struff, Nicolas Jarry, and Marius Copil but at least managed to push Djokovic to three sets in Paris.

Based on current form–or lack thereof for his opponent–and the favorable conditions of a relatively high-bouncing court inside the O2, Isner has to like his chances of getting back on track.

Pick: Isner in 3

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