Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Anderson vs. Thiem

Kevin Anderson and Dominic Thiem will be squaring off for the ninth time in their careers when they kick off the 2018 Nitto ATP Finals on Sunday afternoon.

Anderson leads the head-to-head series 6-2, including 6-1 on hard courts. From just about out of nowhere, however, Thiem turned the tide this season after once sporting a hopeless 0-6 record against Anderson. The Austrian prevailed 6-4, 6-2 on the red clay of Madrid and also picked up a straight-set 7-5, 6-2, 7-6(2) victory at the U.S. Open.

Although still at his best–by far–on the slow stuff, Thiem has improved on hard courts in part because he has played a smarter schedule to stay fresh. The world No. 8 is 13-4 on this surface dating back to the start of the U.S. Open, including a quarterfinal run there and an indoor title in St. Petersburg. He also advanced to the semis last week in Paris before succumbing to eventual champion Karen Khachanov.

Anderson is wrapping up the best season of his career, which is highlighted by a runner-up performance at Wimbledon. The sixth-ranked South African has remained in fine form with consecutive quarterfinal finishes in Tokyo and Shanghai plus a title on the indoor hard courts of Vienna.

Whereas Anderson is making his London debut, Thiem already has two years of experience at this tournament. However, it has not been successful for the 25-year-old. He compiled a 1-2 round-robin record in each of his first two appearances, beating only Gael Monfils (2016) and alternate Pablo Carreno Busta (2017).

In these friendly conditions that should favor big servers, Anderson should be able to hit through the court more effectively than Thiem while extending his opponent’s woes at the O2 Arena.

Pick: Anderson in 3

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14 Comments on Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Anderson vs. Thiem

  1. True Ricky, people always mistaken that Rafa likes slow surface, in fact it’s the opposite. Rafa likes quick surfaces (but not lightning quick) with high bounces, not slow surfaces.

    Rafa is a counterpuncher no doubt but that doesn’t mean he want his matches to drag on unnecessarily. He’s an aggressive counterpuncher, knowing how to end points with winners whenever possible.

    Thiem is more offensive than defensive and I doubt he likes slower surfaces; what he likes is higher bounces for him to set up his shots, not unlike Rafa ( and I feel Stan too for that matter, they need time to set up their shots with their big swings).

  2. I think Djoko is the one who enjoys slower surfaces than most players. He hits a bit flatter shot, and he’s more a counterpuncher than an attacker, for him it’s the speed of the court rather than the bounce that matters. However, that doesn’t mean he’s not good on quick surfaces – he’s able to play good attacking tennis to beat most players on quick surfaces and it’s only a Fed who is playing well could beat him (as in Cincy, Shanghai and Dubai).

    The slower and higher bounce surface of O2 arena suits Djoko to the T, allowing him to outlast Rafa and also giving him time to counter Fed’s aggression.

  3. It’s a misconception that slow courts always suit clay courters
    Nadal game doesn’t work when the ball doesnt bounce up. Nadal played very well at the US as did Thiem so I’d guess the ball was bouncing nicely up unlike at the 02.

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