Nitto ATP Finals championship match expert picks: Medvedev vs. Zverev

Expert picks are back for the grand finale in Turin, where the title is coming down to Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev. A three-team panel previews the action and makes its predictions for this showdown between the world No. 2 and world No. 3.

(2) Daniil Medvedev vs. (3) Alexander Zverev

Ricky Dimon (The Grandstand): It’s not quite Novak Djokovic vs. Daniil Medvedev, but it’s still pretty darn good. Medvedev vs. Alexander Zverev is a great rivalry between two guys who could be the two best players in the world when the Big 3 are gone. Right now, though, a clear edge goes to Medvedev. The only question is: just how bid of an edge? On one hand, the Russian has won a hard-to-believe five in a row in the head-to-head series–including a 6-2, 6-2 beatdown at the Paris Masters. On the other hand, Zverev pushed Medvedev to 8-6 in the third-set tiebreaker during round-robin action on Tuesday. Given how well the German is playing this week (especially against Djokovic in the semifinals), I think he can once again be competitive. Still, Medvedev has been the best player on tour this fall, he is 9-0 in his last nine matches at the Nitto ATP Finals, he had a much easier semifinal on Saturday, and a lightning-fast surface is slightly more advantageous for him than it is for Zverev. This should be a fun one; it should also be another Medvedev win. Medvedev in 3: 7-5, 4-6, 6-3.

Cheryl Murray (The Grandstand): Before the tournament started I had Zverev penciled in as the winner. And after his rather impressive performance against Djokovic in the semis, I’m amused to report that I’ve changed my mind. It’s not that Zverev isn’t playing well. His match against Djokovic featured some of the best tennis of the week and he held his nerve admirably after dropping the second set. It’s just that Medvedev has been so much better than everyone else that it’s hard to imagine Zverev stopping him. Medvedev handed Zverev his only loss this week, actually. The two men were both in the Red Group and met in their second round-robin match; the Russian won in three. Medvedev has won their last five meetings and with the world No. 2 playing as well as he has this week, it’s hard to imagine the streak coming to an end. Medvedev in 3: 7-6(4), 5-7, 6-4.

Pete Ziebron (Tennis Acumen): Dating back to 54 weeks ago, Zverev led the head-to-head with Medvedev 5-1. Since that time, the Russian is 5-0 and therefore the scoreboard now reads 6-5 in his favor. The German stunned Djokovic in the semifinals at the Olympics and also denied the Serb an opportunity to win the ATP Finals for a sixth time in these semifinals. In Turin, the Olympic gold medalist has only fallen to Medvedev–and that was in three sets earlier this week. Medvedev needed to go the distance in each of his round-robin contests before correcting course and sweeping Ruud in his semifinal. The defending champion has dropped just three sets in his last five matches against Zverev and has his eyes squarely set on another win. This would give the world No. 2 the U.S. Open as well as the year-end championship in a season that was entirely dominated by Djokovic heading into New York. Zverev has now twice prevented Djokovic from winning this event for the first time since 2015 (previously in the 2018 final). For Zverev, that fact will be something to build on in 2022; on Sunday, Medvedev makes it six straight in the series. Medvedev in 3: 4-6, 6-3, 6-4.