Newport, Bastad, and Umag previews and predictions

There is no rest for the weary—well, there is if you’re Kevin Anderson and John Isner. Those two marathon men are obviously taking a much-deserved break, but the ATP Tour is getting right back in action with not one, not two, but three tournaments immediately following Wimbledon.

Isner has withdrawn from the final grass-court tournament of the season in Newport, leaving Adrian Mannarino and Mischa Zverev as the top two seeds. Meanwhile, clay-court competition returns in Bastad and Umag. Among the players getting back on the dirt are Diego Schwartzman, Pablo Carreno Busta, Fabio Fognini, Richard Gasquet, Damir Dzumhur, and Marco Cecchinato.

Hall of Fame Open

Where: Newport, Rhode Island
Surface: Grass
Prize money: $557,050
Points: 250

Top seed: Adrian Mannarino
2017 champion: John Isner (not playing)

Draw analysis: A few contenders will be gone right away, because some intriguing first-rounders are on the Newport schedule. They include Gilles Muller vs. Marcos Baghdatis, Alex de Minaur vs. Ivo Karlovic, and Ryan Harrison vs. Nicolas Mahut. An especially loaded top half of the bracket has Mannarino—basically a grass-court specialist—in line to meet either Muller or Baghdatis in the quarterfinals. Karlovic and de Minaur are potential semifinal foes for Mannarino.

Harrison and Mahut are starting at tough draws, and not just because of their opening affair. They have two accomplished grass-courters in their section in Sergiy Stakhovsky and Matthew Ebden. Elsewhere in the bottom half lurk Zverev (who recently captured his first career ATP title in Eastbourne), Denis Kudla, Ruben Bemelmans, and Vasek Pospisil. Bemelmans, who had two match points against Isner in the Wimbledon second round, has to face Kudla in the first round.

First-round upset alert: Marcos Baghdatis over (6) Gilles Muller. Muller has announced his upcoming retirement at the end of the season, so it would be fitting for him to go out with a final grass-court title. The Luxembourgian, however, is slowing down at 35 years old with a 9-16 record this season—including just 2-4 on his favorite surface. Baghdatis is also struggling at 33 years old, but he leads the head-to-head series 3-1 and he played well at Wimbledon with a retirement win over Dominic Thiem (the Cypriot led by two sets) and a five-set loss to Karen Khachanov.

Hot: Adrian Mannarino, Mischa Zverev, Matthew Ebden, Alex de Minaur

Cold: Gilles Muller, Nicolas Mahut, Ivo Karlovic, Vasek Pospisil, Donald Young, Marcos Baghdatis, Marcel Granollers, James Duckworth, Jordan Thompson

Semifinal predictions
: Adrian Mannarino over Alex de Minaur and Matthew Ebden over Denis Kudla

Final: Mannarino over Ebden

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Swedish Open

Where: Bastad, Sweden
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 501,345 Euros
Points: 250

Top seed: Diego Schwartzman
Defending champion: David Ferrer

Draw analysis: Schwartzman and Fernando Verdasco faced each other twice in the span of a few days earlier this season, with the Argentine prevailing in both the Rio de Janeiro final and the Acapulco first round. They cannot go head-to-head until the Bastad final, but that is without question a real possibility. Schwartzman is the No. 1 seed and arguably the title favorite based on the surface and the strong season he is enjoying. He could be challenged in the top half of the bracket by Gasquet and/or Leonardo Mayer, but for the most part Schwartzman’s path to the final looks like a favorable one.

Verdasco opens with Lorenzo Sonego, who is starting to make a name for himself this season. The road should not get much tougher thereafter, because nobody in the bottom half is in particularly fine form at the moment. Carreno Busta has won only two matches since leaving Rome, although a return to clay may be just what the doctor ordered.

First-round upset alert: Matteo Berrettini over (6) Leonardo Mayer. Berrettini is in the midst of a breakout season, with his first six ATP-level match wins and a ranking comfortably inside the top 100. Mayer is still going strong at No. 36 in the world. Both men are also strong on clay, so this could be the best match of the entire first round in Bastad.

Hot: Radu Albot, Matteo Berrettini, Jaume Munar

Cold: David Ferrer

Semifinal predictions: Diego Schwartzman over Richard Gasquet and Fernando Verdasco over Federico Delbonis

Final: Schwartzman over Verdasco

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Croatia Open

Where: Umag, Croatia
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 501,345 Euros
Points: 250

Top seed: Damir Dzumhur
Defending champion: Andrey Rublev

Draw analysis: Umag always features the kind of field that makes the title completely up for grabs. Last year was no exception, as Andrey Rublev won the tournament after falling in qualifying and getting a lucky-loser spot in the main draw. Rublev now finds himself with a first-round bye as the No. 4 seed, but he is not among the favorites because he has not played since Monte-Carlo due to a back injury. The 20-year-old Russian is in the same quarter of the bracket as Robin Haase and Nicolas Jarry, while Alberto Ramos-Vinolas in the same half. Watch out for the winner of a first-rounder between Joao Sousa and Aljaz Bedene, who will be on a collision course for the quarterfinals with Ramos-Vinolas.

A trio of players enjoying breakout years on tour can be found in the bottom half of the draw. Cecchinato recently made a run to the French Open semifinals, Maximilian Marterer has earned all 15 of his career ATP-level match victories this season, and Marton Fucsovics has impressed on both hard courts and clay during the 2018 campaign. Dzumhur, Benoit Paire, and Pablo Cuevas could also be factors.

First-round upset alert: Marton Fucsovics over (8) Benoit Paire. Paire leads the head-to-head series 2-0, but their meeting in Pune to begin this season ended 6-4, 6-7(4), 7-6(6). Fucsovics has only improved since then, with a fourth-round performance at the Australian Open and his first career title on the red clay of Geneva. Paire is a mediocre 5-6 on the slow stuff this year.

Hot: Damir Dzumhur, Marco Cecchinato, Maximilian Marterer, Nicolas Jarry

Cold: Andrey Rublev, Pablo Cuevas

Semifinal predictions: Robin Haase over Dusan Lajovic and Damir Dzumhur over Maximilian Marterer

Final: Haase over Dzumhur

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19 Comments on Newport, Bastad, and Umag previews and predictions

      • Ha ha ha ha, good news for Rafa at Wimbledon.

        Bolelli vs Diego no in a tussle at Swedish Open, TB first set now at 9-8 Bolelli, oh winning it. I hope Bolelli does well; after watching his match va Rafa on clay this year, I really like his aggressive game. With that game, he should be ranked higher.

  1. Ferrer lost to a young guy Raud. What happened to Ferrer? He’s the defending champion here! Perhaps it’s time for him to do something else. He’s not that young anymore and has been losing matches more than winning them these days.

    I wonder will Spain’s DC captain still has faith in him for their SF tie with France; and if not him, who else to replace him?

    On another note, Berdych has suffered back injury and will skip the whole NA HC swing. Poor soul, he and Tsonga are suffering from injuries now that they’re not that young anymore. Stan too, making a comeback though not quite successful yet. I wonder when Murray is coming back.

    • Been wondering myself. Typically he seems to start out well, then goes downhill fast. His serve seemed to totally – as in DOUBLE FAULTS – disappear today. Age, maybe. Ferru’s always played a tough physical game that depends on movement, speed and accuracy.

      • PS Good question re the DC semi with France. They’ll be on a fast hard court. France still has very good doubles options and can always scrape up something decent in the way of singles players. Rafa will play if healthy. I’d guess RBA for backup but he’s not been doing well this year either. Nor has PCB. I don’t recall that Ferrer has played a good match since his last big effort at the DC quarters. I’m not optimistic. 🙁

    • Berdych and Tsonga might be toast. I think Murray and Wawrinka actually looked solid this grass season. They just couldn’t sustain a high level that long, but they look like they’re getting their tennis legs back. I think both could be 100% or close to 100% for the US Open. It would probably be best for them to only play one event beforehand though.

      • Just imagine, if Anderson won the Wimbledon final, Berdych would be banging his head on the wall, as he was owning Anderson all through their careers – 12-0 adv Berdych!

        Hopefully seeing Anderson could reach as high as no.4 in the world and reaching two slam finals, that may spur Berdych on to come back fit and healthy and with an improved game. He’s not old, at 33 there’s still time to do something, when the next gen guys are not ready to take over yet, and with some luck and good draw, he may once again reach a slam final and then anything could happen.

  2. Actually match fitness is an issue for those on the comeback. It’ll take a while for them to get match fit, esp where stamina is concerned.

    How long does it take for Djoko to be back to his winning ways? More than a year! Stan’s and Murray’s injuries look more serious than Djoko’s hence they have taken a longer time and have yet to make a successful comeback.

    I do feel Fed’s six month off wasn’t exactly due to a serious injury, at least not as serious as theirs, hence he was able to practice and improved his BH, during that break (obviously, as prior to the break, his didn’t have that improved BH!). His stamina too seemed not affected by the break (winning so many five set matches) so perhaps he was in better physical conditions (than Stan/Murray) during his break and so was able to train to sustain his stamina.

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