The 30th installment of the Rafael Nadal vs. Roger Federer rivalry will take place on Sunday in Rome. A two-team panel offers differing opinions on Federer’s chances to pull off the upset and capture his first Rome title.
Ricky: Nadal and Federer will be squaring off for the 30th time in their careers when they collide in the final of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia on Sunday. The head-to-head series stands at a dominant 19-10 in Nadal’s favor, including 12-2 on clay. The Spaniard has won their last three clay-court encounters dating back  to 2010 and he also cruised through their previous 2013 encounter 6-4, 6-2 in the Indian Wells quarterfinals. Federer was clearly hampered by a back injury in their desert duel, but–although we will never know–based on their respective form at the time it probably would not have mattered.
Speaking of current form, Nadal’s comeback this year from a seven-month layoff is going better than anyone could have possibly expected. The world No. 5 boasts a 35-2 record for his 2013 campaign and he already owns an outrageous five titles–including last week in Madrid. Nadal, whose only blemishes have come in his first tournament (in the Vina del Mar final to Horacio Zeballos) and to world No. 1 Novak Djokovic, picked up the pace on Saturday in Rome. After requiring three sets to get past both Ernests Gulbis and David Ferrer, he erased Tomas Berdych 6-2, 6-4 in one hour and 17 minutes. Federer cruised past Potito Starace and Gilles Simon before getting more serious tests from Jerzy Janowicz and Benoit Paire. The Swiss is still just 18-5 for the season, the modesty of that record due in part to a two-month break after Indian Wells.
The bottom line is that this is a bad, bad matchup for Federer. Nadal’s heavy topspin forehand is a killer against vulnerable one-handed backhands and his lefty serve works to perfection against this particular opponent. On this surface, of course, all of Nadal’s strengths exploit Federer’s weaknesses to an ever greater extent. While the Federer-Nadal rivalry is arguably the best in tennis history, it is becoming all too predictable these days. Nadal will always win on clay or a slow hard court, while Federer will always win on a fast hard court–especially indoors. Nothing we have seen in Rome suggests such a trend is about to end. Nadal 6-3, 6-3.
Chris Skelton: By now, we all know how the Federer-Nadal script unfolds, especially on clay. Rafa slathers his lefty forehand with topspin to break down Roger’s lovely but fragile one-handed backhand, and he saves whatever break points he faces with kick serves into the ad court to the aforementioned backhand. Moreover, Federer cannot match Nadal’s consistency from the baseline on the sport’s slowest surface and the Swiss contributes to his opponent’s cause by going for too much too soon during points. Many fans can repeat all this information like a catechism by now. Yawn. Why bother watching the Rome final unless you’re an insatiable Rafaholic who never gets tired of seeing your man do his clay thing?
Moreover, the cavalcade of unseeded opponents whom the second seed has defeated in straight sets has not forced him to exert much energy. Federer will arrive at the final fresher than Nadal, who has played two three-setters in Rome before the final for the first time since 2005. The Spaniard looked vulnerable in dropping a 6-1 set to Gulbis with overly passive court positioning, and he lost a set to familiar punching bag Ferrer for the second straight week. Reaching finals at eight straight tournaments for the first time in his career, Nadal has played a huge quantity of tennis early in his comeback. Federer’s previous clay wins in this series came in finals at the last Masters 1000 tournament before Roland Garros, when fatigue had started to weigh down his arch rival. So I think that Federer certainly could make this final more competitive and compelling than it looks at first glance. Federer to win, though? That’s a bridge too far. Nadal 5-7, 6-2, 6-3.
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“A bridge too far” may sum it all up, even for Fed fans like myself. Eventhough he is rested and healthy, rafa just too tough on slow clay. Rafa in straight.