Nadal stunned in first match of season by Berrer – What does it mean?

January 7, 2015 Ricky Dimon Rapid reaction 60

This week’s sign the apocalypse is upon Rafael Nadal: he lost to Michael Berrer 1-6, 6-3, 6-4 in his first match of 2015.

But just calm down for a second. It was an opening-round contest at some 250-point event in Doha called the Qatar Open sponsored by ExxonMobil. The recent Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman (that was a college football game between Virginia Tech and Cincinnati, for those wondering) was more prestigious.

And it’s not like Nadal’s performance came out of nowhere, unless you define an extended injury layoff followed by a 6-2, 6-0 exhibition loss to Andy Murray as “nowhere.” The Spaniard played only seven matches after Wimbledon in 2014 and lost three of them, none to opponents ranked in the top 20. He lost his last two meetings with left-handers in 2014. Berrer, by comparison, is ranked 127th and a lefty.

Nadal isn’t getting worse. He just hasn’t quite gotten all the way better.

Nadal’s most recent Grand Slam title came at the 2014 French Open. His four tournaments leading up to it–all on his favorite surface–resulted in losses to David Ferrer, Nicolas Almagro, and Novak Djokovic in addition to a visit to the proverbial woodshed courtesy of Kei Nishikori (Nishikori eventually got hurt and had to retire from the Madrid final).

But, no, Nadal defeatists are correct. This loss to Berrer really does mean everything.

It means Berrer, 34, has a signature win–his first over a top-5 opponent–at the tail end of his 17-year career.

It means Berrer has, as commentator Robbie Koenig would say, “one for the rocking chair” (or for much sooner than that, since the German already has two kids).

It means Berrer’s decision to play one more season (he is retiring at the end of 2015) is pretty much validated regardless of what else transpires.

It means Berrer will crack at least the top 120 next week and put himself on the brink of the top 100 for the first time since January of 2012.

It means Berrer is one win over an unseeded Ivan Dodig away from his firs ATP quarterfinal since July of 2013.

It means no more seeded players stand in Berrer’s way of his first ATP semifinal since February of 2012.

“It’s really unbelievable,” Berrer said in his on-court interview. “It’s my last season (on the pro tour). I’m going for it. I have nothing to lose. Why not? It’s one of the matches which will stay in my memory forever.”

So, yeah, it means a lot. But beyond that, it doesn’t mean much.

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59 Comments on Nadal stunned in first match of season by Berrer – What does it mean?

  1. Ricky,

    Thanks for this one. I like when a loss like this is put into perspective. It would be great if Rafa could have managed to get some matches under his belt and taken advantage of a good draw, but as he said this is life, this is sport.

    Initially I was shocked to read about it, but then I realized that it was entirely possible that this would happen. These players who have never done anything in their careers, know that Rafa is vulnerable when he is coming back after a long layoff. So they come out and play maybe their best tennis on that day or something close to it and get a win that they can talk about when they grow old.

    There’s no reason to read anything more into this loss. I am going to just wait and see how it all plays out.

    Reply

  3. One thing good about all this is that it leads to zero expectations on Rafa for Melbourne. And Rafa rolls best under such circumstances. I would say that a QF would be a very good result at the Australian open

    Reply

  4. —an extended injury layoff followed by a 6-2, 6-0 exhibition loss to Andy Murray as “nowhere.” —
    No word that Rafa defeated the 2014 AO champion after losing to Andy. Isn’t Stan the real champion or what?

    —the proverbial woodshed courtesy of Kei Nishikori (Nishikori eventually got hurt and had to retire from the Madrid final).—-
    As a rule, (some or a lot of?) people don’t care about Nishikori’s victories (!) during last year! They only lament his loss to injured (!) Rafa!
    Rafa injured his back during the warm-up of the 2014 AO final and the back still hurt in October!

    Reply

  7. Hilarious that ‘champion’ is the most popular vote on the poll for how far nadal will go at the Australian. Though not at all surprising.
    Unless Novak is injured Nadal simply will not beat him. And I expect him to fall to someone playing aggressive tennis before then regardless.

    Reply

    • And before the Rafa fan club say anything, no, the fact that I have a picture of Federer as my profile does not mean I’m a Fed ‘fanboy’ or am biased against Rafa in any way!
      I like him, I’m just also a realist. I expect him to reach the quarter finals and that would be a decent result for him. As long as he has some form and matches under his belt going into the clay swing he will pick up another French title before praying he doesn’t get drawn against a big hitter at wimbledon!

      Reply

      • agreed. Australian Open is not of utmost importance for Rafa. He just needs to win 2 more Frenches and sneak in some other GS title somewhere (it won’t be this year’s Aussie, obviously) to tie Federer

        Reply

      • So who is your fav, if not Fed, pray tell, @createdsick? Until you told us, I would not have guessed that was Fed on your avatar!

        Reply

      • I beg to differ, I think Australian Open is of utmost import to Rafa as this would secure a second career Slam, something nobody has amongst active players. Unfortunately, I do not think he has a snowball’s chance in hell in 2015 as it will be too soon after his comeback.

        However, if Rafa gets to the quarters, all bets are off!

        Reply

        • that’s what i meant. he doesn’t have a realistic chance, and therefore it doesn’t matter. the chance he will have to sneak in 1 last hard-or-grass major title will come at Wimbledon.

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      • Native New Yorker-
        I’m not sure you quite understood what I meant. Obviously Rafa would be delighted to win a second career slam. I’m not disputing that. I’m saying that statistics aren’t his primary motivation. It’s winning the matches and the tournaments that will in turn end up earning him the records that are motivating him. When he got injured in the Australian open final last year do you really think he was thinking “Oh no, there goes the second career slam”. No. He was thinking “Oh no, there goes this match and there goes the title”.
        And as for my comment about him wanting to compete with Novak, I don’t know why you took issue with that. I’m not questioning Nadal’s pedigree in relation to Djokovic’s or the success he’s had against him historically. But the fact is that at this moment in time, because of his time out injured, if Rafa stepped onto a court with Djokovic he would get comfortably beaten. And before his injury, and before his win in the French open final, he lost 4 on the spin to Djokovic who was starting to look like he had his number. Djokovic is CURRENTLY the undisputed bet player in men’s tennis. Rafa wants to re-enter the debate.

        Reply

  8. My favourite is obviously Novak Djokovic! That’s not much of a pick though…It’s a no brainer!
    Id love Fed to win it but hard to see it happening. Wimbledon is probably his only realistic shot of one last Hurrah. Nishikori would be my second choice for the Australian title. I think we will see him in a slam final or two this year.

    Reply

    • Will Rafa really be thinking about a second career slam though? I think that’s probably in the last carriage of his train of thought right now.
      He would obviously love to win it, but I think he’s much more concerned about getting himself back to being a serious challenger to Novak rather than about stats and records.

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      • Where records and stats are concerned, Rafa is an enigma, hardly giving much away. Rather, it is Toni who sort of gives away Rafa’s ambitions in this regard. Recall how Toni specifically mentioned the second career Slam possibility last year, and Rafa fought valiantly in spite of that painful blister?

        Rafa prefers a simple philosophy: play well and the results, stats and records will follow.

        Au contraire, I do not think Rafa has a big picture of Novak in his head as he plans his work, Rafa knows if he gets back in the groove and plays well, Novak cannot touch him. All Rafa has to do is concentrate on himself and his level of play, not anybody else.

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      • created sick,

        You have to be kidding if you think that Rafa isn’t thinking of the double career slam. That’s the kind of history that would put him in a class by himself. However, I think he knows that trying for it this year is going to be a tough ask after being off so long.

        All you had to do is see the look on his face last year when that back injury prevented him from achieving the double career slam. That said it all.

        Rafa is a realist and knows that he will have to work hard and it will take time for him to get into his best form.

        I don’t think Rafa is concerned one bit about getting back to being a serious challenger to Novak. Are you kidding with that? He’s beaten Novak how many times at slams in the last two years? Give me a break!

        It’s Novak who should be concerned with trying to get into the exclusive Fedal club!

        Reply

    • “My favourite is obviously Novak Djokovic!”

      I am clearly missing something……………how is it obvious you are a Nole fan?

      Reply

  10. Yet another Fedole fan.

    Poor Novak. His fanbase is made up of fellow Serbs and Fedfans desperately hoping Nole will be Fed’s saviour from Rafa eclipsing him in Slams.

    (He’s already eclipsed him as GOAT.)

    Reply

    • Haha. I don’t know if you’re deliberately parodying a Rafa fan or not. If so, well played! In no way, shape or form am I a Novak fan, I object that accusation!
      I said he’s my favourite for the tournament because he is the best player in the world right now. I’m able to make that concession even though he’s not the player I support. I imagine you were one of the many Rafa fans unable to do the same who clicked “champion” in the poll!
      When Novak and Rafa play I support Rafa. I would rather Rafa won a tournament than him every time. I’m a tennis fan and Federer happens to be my favourite player. I don’t spend my time trying to win inane arguments about who the greatest player of all time is. Whoever it is now it will be someone else in fifty years.

      Reply

  11. (sorry for the duplicate post – cant get it to appear in the right place!)

    Native New Yorker-
    I’m not sure you quite understood what I meant. Obviously Rafa would be delighted to win a second career slam. I’m not disputing that. I’m saying that statistics aren’t his primary motivation. It’s winning the matches and the tournaments that will in turn end up earning him the records that are motivating him. When he got injured in the Australian open final last year do you really think he was thinking “Oh no, there goes the second career slam”. No. He was thinking “Oh no, there goes this match and there goes the title”.
    And as for my comment about him wanting to compete with Novak, I don’t know why you took issue with that. I’m not questioning Nadal’s pedigree in relation to Djokovic’s or the success he’s had against him historically. But the fact is that at this moment in time, because of his time out injured, if Rafa stepped onto a court with Djokovic he would get comfortably beaten. And before his injury, and before his win in the French open final, he lost 4 on the spin to Djokovic who was starting to look like he had his number. Djokovic is CURRENTLY the undisputed bet player in men’s tennis. Rafa wants to re-enter the debate.

    Reply

  12. I think we’re all agreed Rafa wants to get back winning matches and winning tournaments and breaking records! And we all want to see him back to his best.

    And when it all comes down to it it’ll probably be uncle Tony doing the motivating! :p

    Reply

  13. Re Rafa thinking about winning each match one at a time, esp when he gets into a final of an important tournament, vs completing a double career slam…. I think he thinks of both but just doesn’t talk about the latter. How can he not think about it? It is more reasonable and humble to not over think it and especially not talk up your chances and aspirations before you have achieved them esp with something this rare historically. Just like he will never pronounced himself on where he stands historically compared to other legends and says that is something for others and to be done once his career is over.

    Reply

  16. Hi, I have been a long time visitor to this website (also TalkTennis). I love reading the comments more than anything (so, a stalker in a sense), vamosrafa, augusta08, nativenewyorker7, rafaisthebest, Sanju everyone’s…

    I think we should not read too much into this as there is a big difference in this comeback and the one in 2013. That time he started in the most preferable conditions, clay court, low key event etc. Because of that he got much more time to adjust and come to his usual level. Here it was Hard Court and a Hard hitting opponent, worst conditions.

    All I’m thinking right now (hoping) the 5 sets in Australian Hard Court should give him ample time to find his form and hopefully put up a show for us all… (Also the doubles should help)

    Here’s Hoping… Vamos Rafa

    Reply

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