The Rolex Paris Masters has some history with surprise finalists, and there may be another one coming your way in 2018.
This is about as lopsided as any draw can get; it’s shockingly lopsided.
It starts with Rafael Nadal, who is the No. 1 seed–and a particularly vulnerable No. 1 seed, at that. He has not taken the court since retiring in the U.S. Open semifinals against Juan Martin Del Potro with yet another knee injury, so his status is unknown. Nadal may not be 100 percent, but he is eager to get back on the court for some indoor match practice prior to the Nitto ATP Finals (an event he has never won) and because he is basically tied with Novak Djokovic in the race for the year-end No. 1 ranking.
Even if Nadal is 100 percent, he is still vulnerable; and not just due to rust. Paris has also arguably been the worst tournament of Nadal’s otherwise illustrious career. The top-ranked Spaniard has never captured the title and he has not even been to the final since his debut appearance in 2007. Often injured at this point on the annual tennis schedule, Nadal has played Paris only six times.
Nadal’s nearest seed this time around is none other than Jack Sock. The 26-year-old American lifted the Paris Masters trophy in 2017 from completely out of nowhere to earn a stunning berth in the year-end championship. A second straight Paris title would come as an even bigger shock, as Sock has been nothing short of a disaster in singles this season. His record stands at a hopeless 7-20 and he currently finds himself all the way down at No. 151 in the race to London. Because Paris and London points leave the board at the same time (when Paris ends), Sock will lose 1,400 points on Nov. 4. If he falls right away to either Richard Gasquet or Denis Shapovalov, he will see a bloated 79.1 percent of his points evaporate in one fell swoop.
So unless Nadal is in perfect health and suddenly begins playing well on the indoor hard courts of Paris, the quarterfinal spot in that section of the draw is entirely up for grabs.
The rest of the seeds in the top half are Alexander Zverev, Dominic Thiem, John Isner, Borna Coric, Kyle Edmund, and Diego Schwartzman.
Zverev is struggling (he has losses to Stefanos Tsitsipas, Robin Haase, Malek Jaziri, Philipp Kohlschreiber, and Marius Copil since winning the Washington, D.C. title in August and he won a mere three games against Novak Djokovic in Shanghai). Indoor hard courts are an unfortunate surface for both Thiem and Schwartzman. Isner has been unable to get back on track since skipping the Asian swing following the birth of his first child. Coric retired from his recent Vienna quarterfinal against Kevin Anderson because of blisters. Edmund is playing well, but he has also played a lot of late and fatigue could be setting in sooner rather than later.
With Djokovic, Roger Federer, Anderson, Kei Nishikori, Tsitsipas, and plenty of other standouts in the bottom half of the Paris bracket, this is about as lopsided as it can get.
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WWW?
Wow, I didn’t know Rafa has at least 25 diehard supporters here! I do think Rafa will make the quarterfinals but he will be rusty at best. I expect Djokovic to win Paris. Not sure that Fed is actually going to play Paris since it looks like he will win Basel after all unless he has another really, really bad day. But Paris is kind of noted for surprise winners, isn’t it? With so many players tired/injured/MIA at the end of a long year. Maybe we’ll have another surprise first time winner this year.
Who will win? A winner other than Djokovic would be a massive shock. For lack of another player, it’ll be Nadal from his quarter. I’ll call Coric from the top half though.
Tournament picks?
Paris is the worst of the Masters, too close to the YEC on the same type of court.
Whats the point of having it? Replace with a Masters on grass in the summer.