A mouth-watering matchup pitting Rafael Nadal against Ernests Gulbis headlines a packed fourth-round menu on Wednesday. Nadal is contesting his second hard-court match since last spring while Gulbis bids for a 14th consecutive win.
Rarely has a showdown between the No. 5 player in the world and the 67th-ranked player in the world been anticipated with this much fanfare. But given the circumstances, Rafael Nadal vs. Ernests Gulbis is the cream of the crop when it comes to the BNP Paribas Open fourth round.
This is the fifth career meeting between the two competitors and Nadal is sweeping the head-to-head series 4-0. Three of the previous four meetings, however, were quite competitive. Nadal dropped a set to Gulbis twice in 2008 (Wimbledon and Shanghai) and once in 2010 (Rome) before most recently earning a more straightforward 7-6(3), 6-3 victory two seasons ago in Doha.
Gulbis is playing–and talking–like he plans to get over the hump against Nadal this time in the desert. The 24-year-old Latvian has won 13 consecutive matches dating back to Delray Beach qualifying. He won the title there, also qualified in Indian Wells, and has since taken out Feliciano Lopez, Janko Tipsarevic, and Andreas Seppi. Gulbis is 11-2 at the ATP main-draw level for his 2013 campaign.
“I believe that I can win,” Gulbis assured. “I like to play against him because his ball and his heavy spin, it’s good for my timing. I know how he plays. I’m telling you, if I’m going to hit a winner it’s gonna be a winner. Doesn’t matter if it’s gonna be Nadal or whoever. I’m going to go for my shots. One shot one corner, one shot other corner. I want to see him get it.”
Nadal has been getting almost everything thrown at him during his comeback to tennis in 2013. The fifth-ranked Spaniard lost in the final of his first event in Vina del Mar, but he triumphed in Sao Paulo and heated up even more in Acapulco–where he thrashed David Ferrer 6-0, 6-2 for the title. Nadal opened in Indian Wells with a 7-6(3), 6-2 win over Ryan Harrison before getting a walkover past Leonardo Mayer.
Gulbis is brimming with confidence right now and a hard-court surface gives him his best chance against Nadal. However, not all bodes well for the underdog. The court is not quite as fast as he would like it and–as the head-to-head history suggests–this matchup is really not as favorable for him as he says. Two of Nadal’s best shots are the cross-court backhand and the inside-out forehand, both of which are directed at Gulbis’ vulnerable forehand side. Gulbis should be able to power his way to a set, but even in this form it’s hard to see him maintaining enough consistency to complete his upset bid.
Pick: Nadal 4-6, 6-3, 6-3
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