Nadal, Federer could meet as early as third round at Australian Open

One spot in the rankings for either player–that’s how close Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal came to giving themselves no chance of facing each other in round three of the upcoming Australian Open. Federer finds himself on the outside looking in for a top 16 seed at No. 17 in the world, while Nadal just barely missed out on a coveted top 8 seed at ninth in the rankings.

The good news for the two all-time greats, though, is that they still have just a one-in-eight chance of meeting in the third round in Melbourne. The No. 9 through No. 16 seeds are placed in the draw in a random order such that they will go head-to-head with the No. 17 through No. 24 seeds–also placed in no particular order–in the third round if they all win their first two matches.

If Federer was the No. 16 seed instead of 17th, he would have been certain to avoid Nadal until at least the fourth round. The case would be the same if Nadal was the No. 8 seed rather than ninth. If both Federer and Nadal were one spot better (16th and eighth, respectively), they would be guaranteed to square off no earlier than the quarterfinals. That’s because in the fourth round, the draw pits seeds 1-4 against 13-16 and seeds 5-8 against seeds 9-12.

Of course, no seed is completely immune to a potentially brutal draw. Juan Martin Del Potro’s withdrawal depleted the field of dangerous unseeded floaters, but that list still includes Marcos Baghdatis, Steve Johnson, Benoit Paire, Gilles Muller, Fabio Fognini, Dustin Brown, Borna Coric, Taylor Fritz, and Fernando Verdasco.

Nadal was dealt a tough draw last year Down Under, where he met an unseeded Verdasco in the opening round. In a rematch of their epic 2009 semifinal showdown, Verdasco exacted revenge in another five-setter with a 7-6(6), 4-6, 3-6, 7-6(4), 6-2 triumph.

“When you are going to an event, you know, you have to put attention on every moment, every practice, (and) every match,” Nadal commented. “All the opponents are dangerous. Last year I felt that I was ready; played great in Abu Dhabi, played great in Doha, I had a good week of practice in Melbourne, and then I lost in the first round. So you never know, and you cannot predict.”

Federer, who last played an official tournament last summer at Wimbledon, captured his fourth Australian Open title in 2010 but has not returned to the final since. He fell in the third round in 2015 to Andreas Seppi before succumbing to Novak Djokovic in last year’s semifinals.”

I hope it’s not going to matter for me because I’m playing that well that it doesn’t matter who’s going to come against me,” Federer said of potentially running into a top opponent in the early rounds. “Maybe it’s even better to play the better guys earlier because I might be having more energy left in the tank. That’s one open question: how much energy do I have left in a best-of-five-set match or after a lot of tough matches in a row?

“I hope the other guys are going to follow this draw and think, ‘Oh I hope the No. 17 seed is not gonna be in my section,’ rather than me thinking that I hope I’m not going to be in their section.”

[polldaddy poll=9634250]