With the French Open less than a month away, we have already reached the halfway point of the clay-court swing. But there are still two more Masters 1000 events to be played before the season’s second Grand Slam takes center stage. One is underway in Madrid, where Rafael Nadal returns to action in search of a sixth title in front of the home crowd. Nadal is the No. 3 seed behind Novak Djokovic–who is also trying to pick up some momentum prior to Roland Garros–and behind defending champion Alexander Zverev. Stefanos Tsitsipas, Casper Ruud, Andrey Rublev, Carlos Alcaraz, and Felix Auger-Aliassime round out the top eight seeds in what is another strong Masters 1000 draw.
Mutua Madrid Open
Where: Madrid, Spain
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 2,614,465 Euros
Points: 1,000
Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: Alexander Zverev
Draw analysis: If Djokovic, Nadal, and Alcaraz play well in Madrid and Rome and then all find themselves in the top half of the French Open draw, tennis fans may explode. That’s exactly where they are in Madrid, and while that’s extremely rough on paper it’s too early to say how things will play out. So don’t freak out just yet. There is no guarantee that it will end up being Nadal vs. Alcaraz in the quarterfinals with the winner facing Djokovic in the semis. After all, Nadal has not played since Indian Wells due to a rib injury and his first match is likely to come against a red-hot Miomir Kecmanovic. Djokovic has played in only three tournaments this season and has not won a title—not even at home in Belgrade. The top-ranked Serb at least managed to reach the final there, but for the most his form at all three events (also Dubai and Monte-Carlo) was discouraging.
Djokovic could run into either Ruud, Hubert Hurkacz, or Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the Madrid quarters. Davidovich Fokina took him down in Monte-Carlo on the Spaniard’s way to a runner-up performance.
Zverev has an easier path in a much weaker bottom half of the draw. The third-ranked German is a two-time champion in Madrid, which is not too surprising because conditions suit him extremely well. Still, it’s not like a return trip to the final will be easy. Zverev could run into some big hitters early and often in the Spanish capital—Marin Cilic in round two, Sebastian Korda in the last 16, and Jannik Sinner in the quarterfinals. Tsitsipas vs. Rublev is the other projected quarterfinal clash in the bottom half.
First-round matches to watch are Korda vs. Reilly Opelka, Sinner vs. Tommy Paul, Andy Murray vs. Dominic Thiem, Roberto Bautista Agut vs. Jenson Brooksby, and Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Botic van de Zandschulp.
Hot: Carlos Alcaraz, Hubert Hurkacz, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Miomir Kecmanovic, Botic Van de Zandschulp, Frances Tiafoe
Cold: Novak Djokovic, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Denis Shapovalov, Benoit Paire, Dominic Thiem, Ugo Humbert, Borna Coric, Aslan Karatsev, Nikoloz Basilashvili, Maxime Cressy, Cristian Garin
Quarterfinal predictions: Casper Ruud over Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz over Miomir Kecmanovic, Stefanos Tsitsipas over Andrey Rublev, and Jannik Sinner over Sebastian Korda
Semifinals: Alcaraz over Ruud and Sinner over Tsitsipas
Final: Alcaraz over Sinner
who ya got?
Tsitsipas as last man standing but its tough to pick
Alcaraz has a real shot of beating Nadal and Djoko but could run out of steam for the final
Tsit has an easier draw than Al., might be the deciding factor. Not sure how “match fit” Rafa and Nole are, either.
Darh horses Isner and Opelka
Big servers tend to do well in Madrid but none of them seem to be “hot” atm. Tsitsi has done well there, just hasn’t quite won it. If Thiem were in form he’d be a favorite.
I picked tsitsi to win
Also have Isner and Opelka going a few rounds but tough couple of matches first Korda and Norrie
QF: Djokovic over Davidovich, Nadal over Alcaraz, Tsitsipas over Rublev, Zverev over Sinner
SF: Djokovic over Nadal, Tsitsipas over Zverev
F: Djokovic over Tsitsipas
SMH. Right, sigh!!!
Alcaraz over Tsitsipas
forgot I picked Alcaraz to win haha
In 2 sets.