Munich, Estoril, and Istanbul previews and predictions

In a two-month span, this is the longest stretch of tennis without a Masters 1000 event on the schedule—all of two weeks! This upcoming week offers the relative calm before the final buildup to the French Open, which still includes huge tournaments in Madrid and Rome. With Rafael Nadal taking a break (and throwing a bone to the rest of the tour while he’s at it), the highest-ranked player in action is David Goffin, who tops a strong field in Munich. The world No. 13 is accompanied by Gael Monfils and Dominic Thiem.

BMW Open

Where: Munich, Germany
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 463,520 Euros
Points: 250

Top seed: David Goffin
2015 champion: Andy Murray (not playing)

Draw analysis: Rarely do 250-point tournaments get better than this—especially in the middle of a grueling stretch that is highlighted by three Masters 1000s, one 500, and a Grand Slam. Barcelona semifinalist Philipp Kohlschreiber joins Goffin, Monfils, and Thiem in the first-round bye contingent and the field also boasts Juan Martin Del Potro, Alexander Zverev, Vasek Pospisil, and mercurial performers Fabio Fognini, Ernests Gulbis, and Dustin Brown.

Goffin had the misfortune of seeing Thiem’s name land in the same half of the bracket. They could square off in a blockbuster semifinal, but Goffin may first have to get past Zverev in the quarterfinals. Zverev, though, faces a rematch with Malek Jaziri right off the bat (the German just lost to Jaziri in Barcelona). Thiem is looking at a more favorable road that could start with the older Zverev brother (Mischa). Del Potro will hope to crash the party in a German-heavy bottom half of the draw. The Argentine opens with Brown before possibly meeting Kohlschreiber in the quarters.

First-round upset alert: Jan-Lennard Struff vs. (7) Vasek Pospisil. Their only previous meeting came in 2014, when Pospisil cruised 6-4, 6-2 on the grass courts of ‘s-Hertogenbosch. Clay should give Stuff a much better chance, as Pospisil greatly prefers slick surfaces (he made a run to the Wimbledon quarterfinals last summer). The Canadian is a dreadful 4-9 this season and he has not yet played a single clay-court tournament.

Hot: David Goffin, Gael Monfils, Dominic Thiem, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Alexander Zverev, Malek Jaziri

Cold: Thomaz Bellucci, Vasek Pospisil, Denis Istomin, Ernests Gulbis, Dustin Brown

Semifinal predictions: Thiem over Goffin and Monfils over Kohlschreiber

Final: Thiem over Monfils

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Estoril Open

Where: Estoril, Portugal
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 463,520 Euros
Points: 250

Top seed: Gilles Simon
2015 champion: Richard Gasquet (not playing)

Draw analysis: Even though Richard Gasquet is not defending his title, Estoril still features a decidedly French flavor—at least in the top half of the bracket. Gilles Simon and Benoit Paire have opening-round byes. Simon, the No. 1 seed, could begin his week against fellow Frenchman Paul-Henri Mathieu. In the same section as qualifier Stephane Robert, Paire faces a potentially tough path that may involve Kyle Edmund and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez.

Nick Kyrgios and Portugal’s own Joao Sousa headline the other side of the draw. Kyrgios finished runner-up to Gasquet in 2015 but he may be hard-pressed to make it that far this time around. The Aussie has not played on clay this year and his section also features Inigo Cervantes and Borna Coric. As for Sousa, the draw ceremony certainly did not do him any huge favors. The fourth seed will likely open against Nicolas Almagro before possibly running into either Leonardo Mayer or Paolo Lorenzi.

First-round upset alert: (WC) Fernando Verdasco vs. (8) Pablo Carreno Busta. This would be an upset according to seeding and ranking, but based on the recent eye test it looks like Verdasco should probably prevail. He is simply in better form than his fellow Spaniard at the moment. Of concern for Verdasco, however, is that his Bucharest final against Lucas Pouille got rained out on Sunday and therefore has to played on Monday. There will be little rest for the weary.

Hot: Fernando Verdasco, Kyle Edmund, Paolo Lorenzi

Cold: Joao Sousa, Rogerio Dutra Silva

Semifinal predictions: Guillermo Garcia-Lopez over Gilles Simon and Leonardo Mayer over Nick Kyrgios

Final: Mayer over Garcia-Lopez

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Istanbul Open

Where: Istanbul, Turkey
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: 426,530 Euros
Points: 250

Top seed: Bernard Tomic
2015 champion: Roger Federer (not playing)

Draw analysis: At the inaugural Istanbul Open in 2015, Roger Federer was the No. 1 seed. This time around it is none other than…Bernard Tomic. Tomic may think that is an even trade, but…it isn’t. Not coincidently, this tournament is by far the weakest of the three this week. Among those earning byes straight to the second round are Federico Delbonis and Ivo Karlovic. Both players register outside the top 30 and Karlovic has not won a single match this season (0-6).

The Croat’s section is especially wide open and an in-form Marcel Granollers may be the one to take advantage by booking a semifinal spot. At the top of the bracket, Tomic will open against one of two Argentines (Diego Schwartzman or Facundo Bagnis) before possibly facing Pouille in the quarters. No. 2 seed Grigor Dimitrov is on a quarterfinal collision course with Jiri Vesely, who upset Novak Djokovic in Monte-Carlo.

First-round upset alert: Damir Dzumhur over (7) Teymuraz Gabashvili. Prior to 2016, Dzumhur owned 17 career ATP-level match victories. He will likely double that number this season alone. The Bosnian is 11-10 and recently pocketed three wins in Miami (albeit with plenty of help) and two in Monte-Carlo. Gabashvili is 1-7 in his last eight tournament matches.

Hot: Federico Delbonis, Marcel Granollers, Jiri Vesely, Lucas Pouille, Damir Dzumhur, Karen Khachanov

Cold: Ivo Karlovic, Diego Schwartzman, Dudi Sela, Andrey Rublev, Carlos Berlocq

Semifinal predictions: Federico Delbonis over Damir Dzumhur and Grigor Dimitrov over Marcel Granollers

Final: Delbonis over Dimitrov

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23 Comments on Munich, Estoril, and Istanbul previews and predictions

  1. Estoril:
    QF-
    Verdasco over Simon
    Paire over Garcia-Lopez
    Almagro over Ymer
    Kyrgios over Coric
    SF-
    Paire over Verdasco
    Kyrgios over Almagro
    Final-
    Paire over Kyrgios

    • well obviously Federer and Gasquet are not playing. And the better question is why Murray played Munich last year. So, no, it doesn’t say anything about the 3 tournaments.

      • Andy got married and took the time off during Monte Carlo 2015. He wanted a clay tune-up before the big tournaments = played Munich.

  2. Munich:
    QF-
    Goffin over Rosol
    Thiem over Youzhny
    Kohlschreiber over Del Potro
    Monfils over Fognini
    SF-
    Goffin over Thiem
    Monfils over Kohlschreiber
    Final-
    Goffin over Monfils

  3. Istanbul:
    QF-
    Pouille over Tomic
    Delbonis over Ramos-Vinolas
    Granollers over Karlovic
    Dimitrov over Vesely
    SF-
    Pouille over Delbonis
    Dimitrov over Granollers
    Final-
    Dimitrov over Pouille

  4. Now that Pouille has withdrawn I have Dzumhur over Tomic in that quarter and I have Delbonis over Dzumhur in the semis. In the final I have Dimitrov over Delbonis.

  5. Monfils withdrew so I have Fognini over sijsling in QF then kohl over Fabio then kohl over Goffin. Goin a bit bold now.

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