In between Monte-Carlo/Barcelona and Madrid/Rome, this week features a trio of 250-point tournaments in Munich, Estoril, and Istanbul. That means—thankfully for the rest of the tour—that Rafael Nadal is taking a break from his clay-court titles. Unlike in Monte-Carlo and Barcelona (and perhaps in Madrid and Rome down the road, as well), titles are totally up for grabs. Alexander Zverev will try to take care of business in front of the home crowd in Munich, Estoril has Kevin Anderson and Pablo Carreno Busta on board, and Marin Cilic is favored to go back-to-back in Istanbul.
BMW Open
Where: Munich, Germany
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 501,345 Euros
Points: 250
Top seed: Alexander Zverev
Defending champion: Alexander Zverev
Draw analysis: The home fans should enjoy this week, because there are a whole host of Germans in the draw and several of them could do some serious damage. It is possible—albeit not likely—that Zverev, the No. 1 seed and 2017 champion, takes an all-German path to the title: Yannick Hanfmann in round two, Jan-Lennard Struff in the quarterfinals, Matthias Bachinger in the semis, and either Philipp Kohlschreiber, Maximilian Marter, Dustin Brown, or his older brother in the championship match. The 21-year-old is more likely to face either Hyeon Chung, Gael Monfils, or Martin Klizan on semifinal Saturday.
Zverev may not have much trouble in the top half of the bracket if Chung and Monfils are still less than 100 percent, but the other side appears to be wide open. No. 2 seed Roberto Bautista Agut could be challenged by Marius Copil in the last 16, by Kohlschreiber or Ivo Karlovic in the quarters, and by Diego Schwartzman or Fabio Fognini in the semis. Fognini is set for an all-Italian first-round affair with Marco Cecchinato, who captured an ATP title as a lucky loser on Sunday in Budapest.
First-round upset alert: Ivo Karlovic over (6) Philipp Kohlschreiber. Their only previous clay-court encounter also came in Germany, with Kohlschreiber getting the job done 6-2, 7-6(4) in the Dusseldorf final. Although the 6’11’’ Croat would rather contest this one on either grass or a fast hard court, he is competitive on clay. His spring swing has begun with a semifinal showing in Houston and a second-round finish in Barcelona (lost to Bautista Agut in three sets).
Hot: Alexander Zverev, Martin Klizan, Marco Cecchinato, Maximilan Marterer
Cold: Gael Monfils, Dustin Brown, Andreas Haider-Maurer
Semifinal predictions: Alexander Zverev over Hyeon Chung and Diego Schwartzman over Roberto Bautista Agut
Final: Zverev over Schwartzman
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Estoril Open
Where: Estoril, Portugal
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 501,345 Euros
Points: 250
Top seed: Kevin Anderson
Defending champion: Pablo Carreno Busta
Draw analysis: Stefanos Tsitsipas will have to make a quick turnaround after finishing runner-up to Rafael Nadal in Barcelona. Coming off the best week of his professional career, the 19-year-old Greek will be back in action on Tuesday and it won’t be easy. Standing in his way of the second round is Pablo Andujar, whose resurgent clay-court swing already includes a title in Marrakech and a third-round performance in Barcelona. This section of the Estoril bracket is absolutely loaded, as the Tsitsipas-Andujar winner has to go up against the top-seeded Anderson. Also in the top half of the draw are Kyle Edmund, Robin Haase, Daniil Medvedev, Roberto Carballes Baena, and Alex de Minaur.
The bottom half is less daunting, but that does not mean it will be easy for the seeds. Leonardo Mayer has to open against 22-year-old Chilean Nicolas Jarry, with the winner possibly to face Carreno Busta in the quarterfinals. Albert Ramos-Vinolas has an all-lefty showdown with Federico Delbonis on his hands, while Gilles Muller’s second-round test will come in the form of Frances Tiafoe.
First-round upset alert: Nicolas Jarry over (7) Leonardo Mayer. Mayer took care of Jarry in straight sets during first-round action at the Australian Open. Three months—and a different surface—could make all the difference in the world. Jarry was the breakout star of the Golden Swing in February, with a quarterfinal (Quito), a semifinal (Rio de Janeiro), and a final (Sao Paulo). Mayer is obviously solid on the slow stuff, but he is by no means a clay-court specialist.
Hot: Pablo Carreno Busta, Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Pablo Andujar, Frances Tiafoe, Nicolas Jarry, Roberto Carballes Baena, Cameron Norrie
Cold: Tim Smyczek, Simone Bolelli
Semifinal predictions: Kevin Anderson over Joao Sousa and Pablo Carreno Busta over Albert Ramos-Vinolas
Final: Carreno Busta over Anderson
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Istanbul Open
Where: Istanbul, Turkey
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: 426,145 Euros
Points: 250
Top seed: Marin Cilic
Defending champion: Marin Cilic
Draw analysis: Roger Federer actually played this tournament in 2015 before making the unsurprising decision to not defend his title the following year. This time around the defending champion is back, and it’s Cilic. Amazingly enough, the Croat is ranked fourth in the world despite having not captured a single title since Istanbul last spring (two Grand Slam runner-up finishes certainly make that possible). Cilic should be able to get back in the winner’s circle because the next highest-ranked competitor is world No. 32 Damir Dzumhur. After Dzumur it goes all the way down to 48th-ranked Andreas Seppi.
Cilic’s only roadblock prior to the final may be a second-rounder against Malek Jaziri, whose 2018 campaign includes a semifinal run in Dubai and a third-round appearance in Barcelona (lost to Grigor Dimitrov 10-8 in a third-set tiebreaker). Seppi and fellow Italian Paolo Lorenzi are potential semifinal foes for Cilic. On the other side of the draw, Dzumhur is on a collision course for the quarterfinals with either Nikoloz Basilashvili, Jeremy Chardy, John Millman, or Dusan Lajovic. That quartet makes up the most intriguing pod in the bracket, with Millman looking to build on a runner-up performance this past week in Budapest.
First-round upset alert: Jeremy Chardy over (8) Nikoloz Basilashvili. This is matchup between two players with similar styles, as they both serve big and like to end points quickly by bashing forehands. Basilashvili has done it a bit better this season, but Chardy recently advanced to the Indian Wells fourth round and he successfully qualified in Monte-Carlo. The Frenchman dominated their only previous meeting 6-2, 6-1 last spring at the Irving Challenger.
Hot: Aljaz Bedene, Andreas Seppi, Malek Jaziri, John Millman
Cold: Damir Dzumhur, Marsel Ilhan, Jiri Vesely
Semifinal predictions: Marin Cilic over Andreas Seppi and Rogerio Dutra Silva over Jeremy Chardy
Final: Cilic over Dutra Silva
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who ya got?
Who do you all like today?
Istanbul:
Cilic over Seppi, Bedene over Chardy
Cilic over Bedene
Estoril:
Edmund over Anderson; Carreno Busta over Ramos vinolas
Carreno Busta over Edmund
Munich:
Zverev over Chung; Kohlschreiber over Schwartzman
Zverev over Kohlschreiber
A few tough choices,but I gave the Germans the edge ,for obvious reasons.
Well done Tsitsipas! Came through a tough three setters again. His game is well suited for clay; he has parked himself inside top 40 now with this win, reaching another SF in consecutive weeks.
He has overtaken Shapo in the rankings if Im not wrong. I personally find him playing better tennis than Shapo, who no doubt has a good to great serve but tends to go for broke thus makes plenty of errors. Tsitsipas plays with controlled aggression and has more patience, maybe more matured mentally?
#RealDeal