A busy third-round schedule at the Montreal Masters is headlined in part by a showdown between Alexander Zverev and Holger Rune. Matteo Arnaldi and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina are also aiming for a place in the quarterfinals.
(13) Holger Rune vs. (2) Alexander Zverev
Zverev and Rune will be squaring off for the third time in their careers when they clash in round three of the National Bank Open on Friday. They have split their two previous encounters, both on clay; Rune prevailed 6-3, 6-2 at the 2022 Munich event before Zverev got the job done 4-6, 6-1, 5-7, 7-6(2), 6-2 just a couple of months ago on his way to the French Open final.
Although Zverev has not been quite at his best since leaving Roland Garros, his results are consistent. The fourth-ranked German reached the Halle semis, the Wimbledon fourth round, the Hamburg final, and the Olympics quarters. He is now 48-14 for his 2024 campaign following a 6-1, 6-1 beatdown of Jordan Thompson on Thursday. Rune has taken advantage of a favorable draw in Montreal, beating lucky loser Roberto Bautista Agut in three sets and a rusty Pablo Carreno Busta in straights. Zverev is simply the better, more consistent player right now and should win this one in easier fashion than he did this spring in Paris.
Pick: Zverev in 2
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Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Matteo Arnaldi
With one more win this week, Arnaldi will put himself in the discussion for a seeded spot at the U.S. Open –with two more he would almost have a seed locked up. The 23-year-old Italian is up to No. 46 in the world and remains on the rise following Montreal victories over Mackenzie McDonald (4-6, 6-4, 6-4) and Karen Khachanov (7-5, 7-5). More than half (22 of 42) of his lifetime main-tour match wins have come this season.
Up next for Arnaldi is a first-ever meeting with Davidovich Fokina. The 42nd-ranked Spaniard missed Wimbledon due to a back injury, so he is currently on the comeback trail. Davidovich Fokina lost in the Atlanta quarterfinals and squandered five match points in a Washington, D.C. setback against eventual runner-up Flavio Cobolli, but he has looked good north of the border with defeats of Roman Safiullin and third-seeded Daniil Medvedev. Still, the pressure of defending semifinal points from 2023 remains and Arnaldi is an extremely tough opponent on the other side of the net.
Pick: Arnaldi in 3
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Rune in 3; Arnaldi in 2.