Montreal R3 previews and predictions: Sinner vs. Tabilo, Rublev vs. Nakashima

Top seed Jannik Sinner and No. 5 Andrey Rublev are on a collision course for the quarterfinals at the Montreal Masters. They first have to survive round three, with Sinner meeting Alejandro Tabilo and Rublev facing Brandon Nakashima.

(1) Jannik Sinner vs. (15) Alejandro Tabilo

Carnage is already taking place at the National Bank Open and it was entirely expected, with many top players making a quick transition from clay to hard courts amidst a busy summer schedule recently headlined by the Paris Olympics. However, one player who is likely immune to the upset bug is Sinner. The world No. 1 missed the Olympics due to tonsillitis and has been in Montreal more than a week longer than almost every other title contender. Sinner is well rested and adjusted to the conditions, which showed in his opening match against Borna Coric on Thursday–a 6-2, 6-4 beatdown.

Up next for the the 22-year-old Italian during third-round action on Friday is Tabilo, another one of the hottest players on tour. The Chilean has soared to 21st in the rankings thanks to pair of titles in 2024, a runner-up performance in Santiago, and a semifinal showing at the Rome Masters. Tabilo is an outstanding 28-15 this season following Montreal wins at the expense of Frances Tiafoe and Lorenzo Sonego. Although the 27-year-old’s leftiness often exposes opponents’ backhands, Sinner wields one of the best backhands in the game. This should be an extremely high-quality match, but Sinner will likely be too good–for Tabilo and for everyone else this week.

Pick: Sinner in 2

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(Q) Brandon Nakashima vs. (5) Andrey Rublev

Rublev and Nakashima will be doing battle for the third time in their careers on Friday. They have split their two previous encounters; Rublev got the job done 6-2, 6-1 at the 2021 San Diego tournament before Nakashima pulled off a 6-4, 7-6(6) upset this spring on the red clay of Barcelona.

Nakashima has emerged impressively from a dreadful 2023 slump. The 23-year-old American is back up to No. 52 in the world and has won 15 tour-level matches this season following Montreal defeats of Denis Shapovalov and a red-hot Tommy Paul. Now it is Rublev who is trying to dig out of his own malaise. The eighth-ranked Russian captured the Madrid title from out of nowhere, but otherwise he has been a disaster dating back to his Dubai default much earlier this year. Does a 7-6(3), 6-2 victory over Tomas Martin Etcheverry on Thursday have Rublev back on track? It’s far from an extraordinary result, but it is a good one. The fifth seed is well rested and should have enough confidence to see off Nakashima’s upset bid.

Pick: Rublev in 3

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