The top half of the Montreal Masters draw is loaded with elite talent, including Casper Ruud and Felix Auger-Aliassime. It’s a much different story in the bottom half heading into the quarterfinals, with Tommy Paul looking to take advantage.
(4) Casper Ruud vs. (6) Felix Auger-Aliassime
Ruud and Auger-Alassime will be squaring off for the fifth time in their careers (third at the ATP level) when they battle for a semifinal spot at the National Bank Open on Friday afternoon. They have split their four previous encounters (1-1 on the main tour, 1-1 in Challengers), with Auger-Aliassime leading 1-0 on hard courts after prevailing 3-6, 6-1, 6-2 at the 2019 Miami Masters.
Although Ruud may be a slight favorite on paper, Auger-Aliassime has a couple of factors working in his favor. The ninth-ranked Canadian has home-court advantage and Ruud is coming off a three-hour and 18-minute struggle with Roberto Bautista Agut on Thursday. Auger-Aliassime has had no such problem advancing, having beaten both Washington, D.C. runner-up and Los Cabos runner-up Cameron Norrie in straight sets. Don’t be surprised if Montreal’s No. 6 seed advances, but this is the toughest matchup of the four to call.
Pick: Auger-Aliassime in 3
Dan Evans vs. Tommy Paul
It’s an all-unseeded quarterfinal lineup in the bottom half of the draw, and either Paul or Evans will improbably reach the semis. Evans’ run so far has been especially surprising. The 39th-ranked Brit had been just 15-17 on the main tour in 2022 prior to this week, including 2-4 in his last six non-retirement matches. So far in Montreal he has taken out Filip Krajinovic, Andrey Rublev, and Taylor Fritz–requiring a pair of three-setters in the process. Evans won his only previous meeting with Paul 6-0, 6-7(10), 7-5 at the Vancouver Challenger four years ago.
Paul’s performance at this Masters 1000 event continues what has been a stellar season. The 34th-ranked American is 28-19 and this is his fourth quarterfinal appearance in his last six tournaments, a stretch that also includes a fourth-round effort at Wimbledon. Paul is through to the last eight in Montreal after defeating Vasek Pospisil (straight), Carlos Alcaraz (three), and Marin Cilic (straight). The 25-year-old is a well-rounded player who is better equipped than Fritz, for example, to handle Evans’ backhand slice and he has been one of the three bet players this week along with Nick Kyrgios and Pablo Carreno Busta. Expect Paul to remain on a roll.
Pick: Paul in 2
WWW?
I dunno. The way things are going in Montreal Dan Evans will probably win the tournament!
Very possible.
(Aside: it occurred to me that we could even have a Taylor v a Draper if both are still in..)
Its a tournament that throws up surprise results . I love the American summer hard court swing, but having these back to back 1000 series in consecutive weeks is long overdue for change IMO.