Montreal final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Medvedev

What will it take to hand Rafael Nadal his first hard-court loss of the summer? The return of Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer in Cincinnati? Maybe. Or how about the hottest player of the U.S. Open Series so far?

The latter gets his shot at Nadal on Sunday afternoon in Montreal, where Daniil Medvedev has played his way into a first-ever Masters 1000 final. Coming off a runner-up performance in Washington, D.C., the ninth-ranked Russian has remained red-hot by beating Kyle Edmund, Dominic Thiem, and Karen Khachanov at the Rogers Cup–all in straight sets.

“I’m playing very well right now,” Medvedev assured. “I believe if I am able to play like this, it’s not going to be easy for Rafa. It’s going to be a big battle.”

It can’t be any easier for Nadal than it was on Saturday. In fact, the top seed did not even have to a play a semifinal match. Gael Monfils won his rain-delayed quarterfinal contest against Roberto Bautista Agut in a third-set tiebreaker earlier in the day and promptly withdrew from the semis citing an ankle injury–and perhaps fatigue, as well.

Thus it has been a mostly routine trek through the draw for Nadal, who has defeated Dan Evans, Guido Pella, and Fabio Fognini while surrendering just one set to Fognini in the process.

“Of course it’s extra special,” Medvedev said of facing the 18-time Grand Slam champion. “I played Novak and Roger a few times, both of them already. It’s different, I have to say. Yeah, there is some extra pressure. At the same time it’s fun to play them because, well, that’s what I have been working for all my life. I won’t be intimidated.”

The 23-year-old will have to play more aggressive than usual, because even though he is capable of hitting big he rarely showcases the firepower that is necessary to beat Nadal. Based on current for Medvedev has every reason to make this competitive, but experience could be a factor. Medvedev has never played in a Masters 1000 title match, whereas Nadal is the all-time leader in Masters 1000 match wins. Two alarmingly loose service games in the second set against Khachanov also do not bode well for Medvedev’s chances if he gets close to reaching the finish line.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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58 Comments on Montreal final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Medvedev

  1. I’ll go Medvedev based on his results. The slip up against Khachanov is concerning and he’ll most likely find himself in similar situations against Nadal but his results on paper suggest he’s in with a big chance.

    Medvedev in 3

    • Plus it’s in the Northern hemisphere which is a biological/climate advantage to Medvedev even though it’s middle of summer.

      • ???
        Medvedev may or may not win. But your argument doesn’t make sense. Take a look at the map. Montreal isn’t that far north compared to middle European cities. It’s only a tad further north than Barcelona ☺. And the local weather conditions can’t be compared anyway. But whatever – considering that Rafa won already four Roger’s Cup trophies, He doesn’t seem to have a problem with the location.

  2. I must say that this is the first time that I ever heard anyone saying that being in the Northern hemisphere would give Rafa’s opponent the advantage! One would think Rafa had never been in the Northern hemisphere! 😱

  3. Yes tha man that has not been broken in a couple tournaments. Hehe, Rafa gets him. Now hold serve, Rafa! He’s a tricky one – this, Daniil.

  4. Heard the stat but forgot it: Medvevev hadn’t broken in awhile. Kyrios- there were no breaks in that DC final. Vamos Rafa!

  5. Rafa doesn’t have his best serve going but everything else is there. Rafa needs to keep pressure on Daniil’s serve. Cut down the free points.

  6. Rafa’s serve stats were excellent in the first set. Rafa is using the wide out serve effectively. Medvedev is standing far back and giving up a lot of ground. Rafa is taking full advantage of it.

    Medvedev seems a bit rattled. It’s not like playing Thiem or Khachanov. Rafa is in control right now. He came out ready. I wanted to see this kid play. I have heard a lot about him and wanted to see what he’s got. He started out well and got into some great rallies with Rafa. He does have that big serve. He also moves well for a tall guy. But he is just outclassed here. Rafa is doing what I hoped he would do – use his experience and varieties. Also the DTL forehand is firing.

    • Nny,

      This is what I needed to see 😀 The the hype has been huge around Medvedev. Comparing him to Nole, ect. Maybe someday.

      LOL, omg I’m loving this. Rafa is so good!

      • Elizabeth,

        Yes. All I heard about was Medvedev. Way too soon to be comparing him to Nole! He has more work to do. He got frustrated and lost it in the second set. Making the final of a Masters tournament was the win for him. He has to work on changing his ROS position. Even his serve let him down in the second set.

        Rafa played his best match. Very nice to see him feeling it.

        Congratulations Rafa! 🏆

  7. I saw Rafa smiling out there! And, he finally wins the match!

    So happy for him! He plays so well in the wind!

    So he finally defends a non clay title! One item strikes off the ‘to do’ list! He’s now the race leader once again, pulls ahead as the Masters leader with 35 Masters now, with this his 5th Canada Masters titles, the most successful of his HC Masters. M

    Well done Rafa, good job👍.

    • Oh and Canada Masters (at Montreal in 2005) was his first ever HC Masters (and HC title too); it’s just amazing that he’s still winning there after 14 years with the most HC titles at that event, and doing better than both Djoko and Fed there.

  8. Well Done Rafa. Excellent match. First time defending a hardcourt tournament-that should shut the critics up who always doubted nadal’s prowess as an all court player despite his great results outside clay.

    Vamos Rafa!

  9. Rafa’s best match on cement so far! Serving extremely well! Playing beautiful! Love it! Bravo!

    Rafa defends his title on cement first time in his career! Rafa keeps improving! I loved S&V from Rafa!! Great to see!

    Vamos Champ!!! ❤️

  10. Lmao good luck to tennis and the ATP once Roger, Rafa and Djokovic are gone. What a mediocre to awful product when two of these three aren’t involved in a title match.
    As for Medvedev and all the other kid wonders, they may come into themselves later on but I really doubt it. Just an extremely mediocre “next” generation. Sad for tennis.

  11. Btw, these are the players Nadal had to beat to win a Masters 1000 title: Evans, Pella, Fognini and Medvedev. Like I said, so, so sad for tennis right now.

    • So? Rafa does not pick his opponents. He has no control over the draw, Novak withdrew and that left the other half of the draw open for other players.

      Winning is winning. Sometimes you have to beat the best players and sometimes it’s easier. Leave it alone.

      • That’s exactly the point. As fans who want to watch and enjoy high level finals, it’s an absolute disgrace to watch matches like this. Roger, Djokovic and Rafa have been carrying all the weight for way too long and everybody else is just happy to cash the checks and fly private.

        • I do not agree with this idea that all the other players are content just to cash their checks. That is unfair. This is an era that has been dominated by three players. They are all great champions. The younger generation is not able to crack their dominance at slams.

          They have had some wins at Masters tournaments. One could say that if not for these three all-time greats, the young guys might have won slams.

          It’s easy to be an armchair critic. Medvedev has never advanced this far and he got schooled by Rafa. That does not take away from his recent wins and good results. He measured himself against the best and now has more work to do.

          I think the young kids are trying to improve. Thiem has made the final of RG two years in a row but ran into Rafa. It is just an era in which nobody can break the dominance of the big three.

  12. Hip hip hooray for Rafa for winning his 5th Canadian Masters trophy!!!!! 🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆

    Vaaaaamooooos Rafa !!!!! 💥💥💥💥💥

  13. Two thoughts:
    When was the last time Rafa defended a non-clay title? Even though this tournament was more a 500 than a Masters, it’s impressive nonetheless. Also, it’s incredible how strongly the young dude wilt under Rafa. How many bagel sets have we seen Rafa earn this year?? I don’t know the exact number, but I feel like it’s happened a lot. The Big 3 still has a hold on the tour, but there’s something about Rafa in particular that seems to take away any confidence the young guys have once they fall behind against him. I feel like Rafa could like, 70 years old and using a walker on court, and these young thoroughbreds would still wilt after falling behind! It’s the shadow that Rafa casts across the court. It’s scary!

    • How can you say that this is more a 500 than a Masters title?

      So Djoko winning at Canada in 2012 and 2016 when the top players were missing due to the Olympics, did anyone call those two titles won at 500 level? Come on!

      Rafa had not defended a non clay title until now because he’s often injured – he won Canada/Cincy/USO in 2013 but missed those events in 2014 due to wrist injury. He won Queens and Wimbledon in 2008 but didn’t have a chance to defend them in 2009 due to injuries. Other times, he was losing to Djoko, nothing to be ashamed of given how formidable Djoko has/had become from 2011 onwards. And, he was sometimes injured during his matches, hence he wasn’t able to defend his AO2009 title in 2010 (retired against Murray) and USO2017 title (injured and retired against Delpo in USO2018).

      • Aah, come on! That’s hair splitting! He defended the Roger’s Cup trophy from last year. It’s the same hardcourt tournament with the same name and at the same time slot, no matter if it’s in Montreal or Toronto. According to your logic no one has ever defended his Roger’s Cup title, and multiple winners would’ve to split up their numbers according to where it was won. Or can you defend it only every second year? I don’t think that any statistician would agree with you😊

    • Kevin, I did it too a couple of days ago! It happens because here at tenngrand we have always to fill in our nickname and email address again and again into the mask for a while now 😣 Therefore slip ups can happen easily. I wasn’t bombarded with nasty messages afterwards, though ☺

  14. Vaaamoooosssss! Loooveee Rafa!

    Guys, please, if I ever hear that phrase “never defended a hard court title” again it’ll be way too soon!

    And let’s give Thiem some credit. Yeah, he went down tamely here but he beat Federer in the IW final, Djoker in the RG semis and gave Rafa a run for his money for 2 sets in the RG final. Rafa lost three semis on clay this year, altho’ only Tsitsi was #NextGen.

    Love Ricky’s tweet about what the Big Three will look like next time they lose a final to someone who isn’t Them.

      • Good win for Rafa, but its a typical letdown in first big final after a brilliant couple of weeks. Its a good matchup, I hope they have many more and next time conditions might suit Med more.

  15. Wow, I didnt’ see the match but just saw the result. What a beat-down. Nadal must have played lights out or else Med didn’t perform. But well done to Rafa! He’s in pole position going forward for YE #1. Even though I don’t see him winning the USO, he’s surprised me more than once before. And now he’s defended a non-clay title, so no one (including me!) can bring that one up again. As for Medvedev, what happened? I’ll have to watch the highlights to see. For now, looking forward to Cinci…

    • Medvedev ran into a well-prepared Nadal with a Plan. It was also pretty windy. Rafa was having fun out there. Medvedev not so much. A final is not where you want to play Rafa for the first time.

      • Ha,ha, that’s the best news: that Rafa was having fun out there – despite playing in the Northern hemisphere, lol (aren’t – except for the short Australian detour and a few South American clay court events – all tennis tournaments played in the Northern hemisphere, btw?)! Congrats for finally defending a hardcourt title and for securing the No 2 spot for the USO draw☺
        For some reason Rafa has always performed better than most of his opponents in windy conditions. There has been a famous presser in IW when he was still very young. Despite being barely able to speak English at the time he tried to explain how he coped so well with the wind.
        As to Medvedev: I’m disappointed! So much for him being on fire. Apparently he ran into a fire extinguisher last night. As far as the young guns are concerned, only Zverev and Thiem have been able to win Masters events. And Zverev is in a heavy slump this year, while Thiem has a nagging problem to perform well at non-clay events – although he did win IW against Fed this year, which was very impressive, but he still loses too often to lesser players.
        Didn’t see Ricky’s tweets. What will the Big Three look like when the young guns finally manage to take over? Will they be old and crippled on walking sticks??

          • @Anonymous, Montreal is only a tad further North than Barcelona ☺ You can get sunburnt easier in Montreal than where I live.
            I live in the North of Germany, and my city is as far north as the Southern Aleutes of Alaska. But we had heat waves this summer where the temperatures rose occasionally towards 100 degrees, and we have rarely frost or snow in winter – not anymore. It used to be very different. The climate has noticeably changed here.

          • LOL, only the northern part of Canada is “in the Arctic”. It gets plenty hot in August in Toronto and Montreal. I know because I’ve Been There and nearly got heat stroke!

        • I think Rafa’s good performance in “the windy” is due to 1) meticulous footwork and shot preparation and 2) all that topspin. Rafa also tends to play conservatively, with a good deal of margin in his shots. Another thing is his patience and acceptance of conditions. At RG this year I’m convinced that Novak lost his semi to Thiem because he was so upset about having to play in the awful conditions. Thiem, Roger and Rafa all accepted the conditions and got on with the job as best they could.

          • Ramara, so you do remember this presser of a very young Rafa in IW, where he tried to explain in wonderful Spanglish how he mastered “the windy” 😊😊😊 It seems to be so long ago, and it makes me a bit nostalgic. It was evident already that he was a rising star, but who would’ve thought at the time that he would become a GOAT contender!
            You explained well, why Rafa masters windy conditions so well. Being able to accept changing conditions with patience and being able to adjust intelligently to everything which is thrown at him makes him such a good outdoor player. The current new generation could learn a thing or two from young Rafa.

          • You have to give Uncle Toni a lot of credit too. He used to make young Rafa train in unfavorable conditions.

      • Medvedev did not play well because Rafa did not let him. He came into the match prepared and ready. Rafa figured out Medvedev pretty quickly. Medvedev did not change his tactics. He started out staying back in the doubles alley, giving up way too much ground. Raf took what he gave him. The first set was decent, but by the second set Medvedev was overmatched and outplayed. He has no answers. So he got bageled. Hopefully, he learned something and will continue to work on his game.

  16. Fed will go into USO as number 3 even if he wins Cincy. Rafa did not leave Fed with any chance to get to no. 2 before USO. Excellent professional dialled in performance.

    And he did not tire himself a lot as well. So, can get to NY early and have a good preparation.

  17. I’ve checked, Rafa had only lost Masters finals to non big three/four members only thrice – once to Nalby at Paris Masters 2007, twice to Davy at Miami 2008 and Shanghai 2009.

    Those two were his seniors back in those days; so it’s tough facing Rafa in a Masters final when you’re not a big four member.

  18. Just reading on FB, Rafa has won more titles than Novak in the North American HC swing, so much for a player that cant play on HCs, well according to the haters ….

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