In one sense, this is the calm after the storm. On the other hand, this is the beginning of what is by far the busiest month on tour—not in terms of quality, of course, but without question in quantity. There are a whopping 12 ATP tournaments in February, and it all begins on Monday in Montpellier, Zagreb, and Quito.
Open Sud de France
Where: Montpellier, France
Surface: Indoor hard
Total financial commitment: 494,310 Euros
Points: 250
Top seed: Gael Monfils
Defending champion: Gael Monfils
Draw analysis: The Open Sud de France is the cream of this week’s crop, thanks in part to a typically strong French contingent. Three of Montpellier’s top four seeds hail from the host nation: Gael Monfils, Gilles Simon, and Richard Gasquet. Monfils and Gasquet are on a collision course for the semifinals in the top half of the draw. Gasquet finds himself in a tough quarter with red-hot countryman Lucas Pouille (semifinalist in Auckland, lost to Monfils in five sets at the Australian Open) and third-round Aussie Open performers Dudi Sela and Malek Jaziri.
An intriguing bottom section features Simon, Benoit Paire, and a first-round showdown between Jerzy Janowicz and Dustin Brown (winner to face either Paire or a qualifier). No. 3 seed Philipp Kohlschreiber seemingly has a more favorable path through to the semis or final in what is the weakest quarter of the draw.
First-round upset alert: Dustin Brown over (5) Jerzy Janowicz. Who should win? Janowicz, obviously. But the eclectic Brown is always a dangerous matchup on either indoor hard courts or grass. He is capable of holding serve from start to finish, which can be bad news for an opponent like Janowicz who can often crumble on serve when he is faced with the pressure of must-hold situations. This one could go either way with two mercurial players involved. The only guarantee is that it will be all kinds of fun.
Hot: Lucas Pouille, Malek Jaziri, Dudi Sela
Cold: Paul-Henri Mathieu, Benoit Paire, Edouard Roger-Vasselin
Semifinal predictions: Richard Gasquet over Jarkko Nieminen and Philipp Kohlschreiber over Gilles Simon
Final: Kohlschreiber over Gasquet
[polldaddy poll=8624667]
PBZ Zagreb Indoors
Where: Zagreb, Croatia
Surface: Indoor hard
Total financial commitment: 494,310 Euros
Points: 250
Top seed: Ivo Karlovic
2014 champion: Marin Cilic (not playing)
Draw analysis: This might as well have been called the Marin Cilic Invitational in years past, but not this time around. The two-time defending Zagreb champion (four times overall) and 2014 U.S. Open winner is still out with a shoulder issue. Although that will disappoint the home crowd, it could open the door for some fellow Croats. Ivo Karlovic is the top seed in a section that also includes up-and-coming countryman Borna Coric. Also watch out for an in-form Viktor Troicki, who triumphed in Sydney and could face Karlovic in the semifinals.
Another veteran Croat to keep an eye on is Ivan Dodig. The 30-year-old reached the doubles semifinals Down Under and was extremely competitive with Kei Nishikori in the singles second round. Dodig’s nearest seeds this week are Adrian Mannarino and Marcel Granollers—tough, but far from daunting. Dodig is 13-5 lifetime in Zagreb with a title in 2011. Also in the bottom half are Gilles Muller (Sydney semifinalist, Australian Open fourth round) and Andreas Seppi (upset Roger Federer in Melbourne).
First-round upset alert: Blaz Kavcic over (6) Mikhail Youzhny. Youzhny leads the head-to-head series 2-0, but both matches went the distance and they have not faced each other since 2011. At 32 years old, Youzhny is now a shadow of his former self. In part because of a terrible Australian Open draw (lost to Rafael Nadal in the first round), Youzhny has not yet won a match this season. Kavcic, meanwhile, is in decent enough form to pull off an upset even on a surface that favors his opponent.
Hot: Ivo Karlovic, Adrian Mannarino, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Gilles Muller, Andreas Seppi, Viktor Troicki, Borna Coric
Cold: Mikhail Youzhny, Marcel Granollers, Sergiy Stakhovsky, Damir Dzumhur, Jurgen Melzer
Semifinal predictions: Viktor Troicki over Ivo Karlovic and Ivan Dodig over Gilles Muller
Final: Dodig over Troicki
[polldaddy poll=8624665]
Ecuador Open
Where: Quito, Ecuador
Surface: Clay
Prize money: $494,310
Points: 250
Top seed: Feliciano Lopez
Defending champion: Inaugural event
Draw analysis: There may be some growing pains for this Quito event, which is in its first year and could go down as having had one of the weakest fields of 2015. If nothing else, however, it could boast what would be a somewhat intriguing all-Spanish semifinal between No. 1 seed Feliciano Lopez and third-seeded Fernando Verdasco. Perhaps the only people capable of derailing such a matchup are Alejandro Gonzalez and Alejandro Falla.
The bottom half of the bracket is positively wide open. Seeds Santiago Giraldo, Martin Klizan, Thomas Bellucci, and Victor Estrella Burgos are all vulnerable. An all-lefty semi between Klizan and Bellucci is a real possibility, but marginal unseeded threats like Evgeny Donskoy and Horacio Zeballos may have something to say about that.
First-round upset alert: Luca Vanni over (7) Dusan Lajovic. Their previous head-to-head meetings, even though they came in 2010 and 2011, may tell the story. Lajovic won on a hard court; Vanni double-breadsticked the Serb on clay. Vanni, a 29-year-old Italian, was borderline dominant in clay-court Futures events last spring. Lajovic is a slight step up in competition, but he is nothing Vanni has not seen before during his career in the lower levels of pro tennis.
Hot: None
Cold: Santiago Giraldo, Alejandro Falla, Horacio Zeballos, Albert Montanes
Semifinal predictions: Fernando Verdasco over Alejandro Gonzalez and Thomas Bellucci over Martin Klizan
Final: Verdasco over Bellucci
[polldaddy poll=8624661]
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
who ya got?
Ricky,
Didn’t you leave out Dodig in the voting poll for Zagreb?
As for the picks at Montpellier, I guess you don’t think that Monfils is in good enough form to do anything there. You never know with him, but he may have a shot at getting to the semis to face Gasquet. Kohls needs a good draw right about now. He hasn’t looked like himself recently. I am not ruling out either Monfils or Simon to possible get through to the final. You never know.
As for Zagreb, I can see Troicki getting through and I like the pick of Dodig to get to the final.
Finally, the Ecuador Open. I guess you don’t think that Lopez is in good enough form to do anything here. There’s not much to choose from in that field. I can see Verdasco getting through is a weak field. It’s kind of wide open for me. I wouldn’t be surprised is someone unexpected sneaks through to the final.
Thanks for the previews and predictions.
Lopez is bad on clay. Monfils is probably hurt.