Montpellier SF previews and predictions: Rublev vs. Kovacevic, Auger-Aliassime vs. De Jong

Top two seeds Andrey Rublev and Felix Auger-Aliassime are massive favorites in their respective Montpellier semifinal matches on Saturday. Rublev awaits Aleksandar Kovacevic, while Auger-Aliassime faces Jesper de Jong.

(1) Andrey Rublev vs. (Q) Aleksandar Kovacevic

Rublev and Kovacevic will be going head-to-head for the first time when they battle for a place in the Open Occitanie final on Saturday. It is right up there with Seoul 2022 as the best week of Kovacevic’s career, as he qualified for the Montpellier main draw and booked a spot in the semis–just as he did in Seoul. The 102nd-ranked American has advanced with victories over David Goffin, Mattia Bellucci, and Alexander Bublik (he also beat Robin Bertrand and Pablo Carreno Busta in qualies).

Whereas his opponent has played five matches at this event, Rublev has completed only two sets. The 10th-ranked Russian got a first-round bye, erased Chris Eubanks 6-4, 6-3 on Tuesday, and led Nikoloz Basilashvili 5-2, 40-0 in the quarters when Basilashvili retired. Rublev is well rested but at the same time has built some confidence with those two results, so he should be in good shape heading into the weekend. The 27-year-old has a history of success indoors and it should continue against a heavy underdog in Kovacevic.

Pick: Rublev in 2

Jesper de Jong vs. (2) Felix Auger-Aliassime

Auger-Aliassime is without question one of the best indoor hard-court players in the world. Five of his six ATP titles have come indoors and he has also reached four other indoor finals. The only exception is the tournament Auger-Aliassime just won a few weeks ago in Adelaide, where he triumphed on outdoor hard courts. The 23rd-ranked Canadian lost from two sets up against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in round two of the Australian Open, but he is back on track in Montpellier with straight-set victories over Arthur Cazaux and Bu Yunchaokete.

Up next for Auger-Aliassime is a first-ever meeting with the 131st-ranked De Jong, who is enjoying the best week of his career. The 24-year-old Dutchman had previously won only two tour-level matches all time; he already has three in Montpellier at the expense of Quentin Halys, Flavio Cobolli, and Tallon Griekspoor. Those are good results, but Cobolli has been injured and Griekspoor did not look 100 percent on Friday. On an indoor hard court against the No. 2 seed, this is probably where De Jong’s run comes to an end.

Pick: Auger-Aliassime in 2