The Australian Open came to an end on Sunday with Jannik Sinner’s victory over Alexander Zverev. Now it’s time for the annual slog that is February swing, which is relatively low on ATP 250 tournaments this year but high on 500s. One of the 250s takes center stage this week, as the Open Occitanie in Montpellier is alone on the ATP calendar. Headlining the action are top two seeds Andrey Rublev and Felix Auger-Aliassime.
It’s time to break down the draw and make predictions.
Open Occitanie
Where: Montpellier, France
Surface: Indoor hard
Prize money: 581,140 Euros
Points: 250
Top seed: Andrey Rublev
Defending champion: Alexander Bublik
Draw analysis: Rublev lost right away in Hong Kong and at the Australian Open (to Joao Fonseca), so he is still looking for his first match victory of the 2025 campaign. Following a bye, the Russian will get things started in Montpellier against either Chris Eubanks or a qualifier. That should be manageable for Rublev, although Eubanks–a former Wimbledon quarterfinalist (2023)–can never be discounted on any fast surface. If the seeds hold to form in the top half of the bracket, quarterfinal matchups would be Rublev vs. Arthur Rinderknech and Alexander Bublik vs. David Goffin. However, neither Bublik nor Goffin is in good form so the door could be open for someone like Lucas Pouille or Gregoire Barrere.
The toughest part of the draw is at the very bottom, where Auger-Aliassime awaits either Stan Wawrinka or Arthur Cazaux. Auger-Aliassime already has a title to his credit this season (Adelaide) and he has always been an effective indoor hard-court player, so the Canadian has to be considered the title favorite. His opening match, though, will not be easy. Whoever survives an all-Dutch showdown between Tallon Griekspoor and Botic van de Zandschulp will also be one to watch in Montpellier.
Hot: Bu Yunchaokete, Arthur Cazaux
Cold: Andrey Rublev, Alexander Bublik, Stan Wawrinka, David Goffin, Borna Coric, Richard Gasquet, Adrian Mannarino, Chris Eubanks
Quarterfinal predictions: Arthur Rinderknech over Andrey Rublev, Gregoire Barrere over Lucas Pouille, Tallon Griekspoor over Quentin Halys, and Felix Auger-Aliassime over Daniel Altmaier
Semifinals: Auger-Aliassime over Griekspoor and Rinderknech over Barrere
Final: Auger-Aliassime over Rinderknech
who ya got?
Same final. Have Goffin going a few rounds.
I think Rublev looses easily, during the second round. The only person I see going forward is Felix and some dark horses going all the way to the semi’s
yeah Rublev may be done mentally, at least for the time being
Could be , but this week might be the turning round of that…he’s had a few weeks to recover.. need s a decent coach
Yep….AA to win!