Monte-Carlo SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Murray

Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal took the suspense out of what looked to be exciting quarterfinal matchups in Monte-Carlo. Murray crushed Milos Raonic and Nadal cruised past Stan Wawrinka to set up a semifinal showdown on Saturday.

Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal will be doing battle for the 23rd time in their careers when they collide in the semifinals of the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters on Saturday afternoon.

Nadal is dominating the head-to-head series 16-6, including 6-1 on clay and 2-0 in Monte-Carlo. He beat Murray 6-2, 7-6(4) in the semis of this tournament in 2009 and again in the final four via a 6-4, 2-6, 6-1 decision in 2011. Murray managed to win their most recent clay-court contest 6-3, 6-2 in the 2015 Madrid final, but Nadal had no trouble prevailing 6-4, 6-1 at the World Tour Finals last fall.

The Spaniard has won only two clay-court titles since the 2014 French Open–none at the Masters 1000 level. With Nadal having slumped earlier this season while Novak Djokovic positively rolled through the rest of the tour, it looked as if the world No. 5 would be hard-pressed to pick up another title even on his favorite surface. But Nadal has to be considered the favorite in Monte-Carlo at this point given his own stellar play and Djokovic’s early exit at the hands of Jiri Vesely. The eight-time champion booked his spot in the semis by defeating Aljaz Bedene, Dominic Thiem, and Stan Wawrinka in straight sets.

Murray is in the midst of a much-needed productive week after falling early in Indian Wells (to Federico Delbonis in the third round) and Miami (to Grigor Dimitrov, also in the third round). The second-ranked Scot needed three sets to get past both Pierre-Hugues Herbert and Benoit Paire, even trailing Paire by a set and a double-break in the second before storming back for a 2-6, 7-5, 7-5 victory.
Murray2
On second life in Monte-Carlo, Murray picked up the pace to hammer Milos Raonic 6-2, 6-0 on Friday. He faced zero break points and solved the Raonic serve an impressive five times to coast in one hour and six minutes.

“Obviously I had a couple tough weeks in Indian Wells and Miami, and I haven’t played loads of tennis since Australia,” the No. 2 seed reflected. “The first couple matches here were tough matches; didn’t play particularly well. I’m just happy I managed to fight through them and now I feel a little bit more relaxed about where my game’s at.”

Murray interview:

Murray’s performance against Raonic was encouraging, but the Canadian struggled through that affair at visibly less than 100 percent. Nadal, of course, is a much different beast than Herbert, Paire, and–on this surface–even than a healthy Raonic. The last time he faced Nadal, Murray’s mind was on clay (for the Davis Cup final against Belgium). This time, Murray will actually be on clay. Neither recipe is a good one.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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265 Comments on Monte-Carlo SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Murray

  1. Rafa gaining confidence and precision is the key. Andy must be pleased with his performance here, too…I hope for Rafa to get better and stronger marching to the finals! I want Rafa to win in 2!

    Rafa is bringing so much joy to all of us! Go for it, Rafa!

    Vamos Champ!

  2. Rafa in three. I watched the highlights of his match with Stan. Stan was making too many unforced errors with just a few too many shots early on that could’ve given him some momentum plus Rafa really played well and had lots of energy and was ripping his forehand. Murray dominating Raonic makes me think he got a bit of a wake up call from the paire match and focused and bore down more to absolutely crush Milos. That match plus the IW final against Nole are his two worst results in terms of games won ever. Poor stuff from Milos. Was he hurt? Anyways I think based off Murray winning easy over Milos I think he gets a set but Rafa fights through in three. Let’s be real. The king of clay is winning this event. I don’t wanna jinx it but c’mon. I would say he’s a pretty heavy favorite to win the tournament now. VAMOS RAFA!! ??????

  3. Nadal is confidently making his way to the 9th Monte-Carlo crown. Considering the head-to-head stats on the surface and their current physical form, bet that that the Spanaird will win in straight sets!Keep focused

  4. Naaa…Needs to be more aggressive! That’s not going to get it done… There was just one point where rafa was dominating but missed the finishing shot.

    Anyway..now hold!

  5. Just following the score…what is wrong with Rafa? Is he tentative again or just Andy bringing his best game when facing Rafa? Damn it!

    • Murray totally outplaying him….Murray’s strategy is working to Perfection. Rafa’s backhand not responding. Rafa not getting any free points on serve…

  6. should have known that murray would get all fired up as usual when he plays rafa and that the new rafa would let him get away with it…

  7. Just when I begin to have confidence in Rafa he puts me back to the ground and brings back all the doubts…
    C’mon Rafa! Where is the King of Clay game? You can do this!
    Vamos Champ!

  8. Im very sad for Rafa. He’s always so tentative, waiting for things to happen. Murray OTOH takes things into his own hands – good serve, returns, FH, BH – whilst Rafa’s serve is so poor and readable. He really looks like he’s running out of ideas how to beat this Murray.

    Its only Djoko who can play this game better than Murray to beat Murray. I hope the aggressive Rafa wakes up to play! Please Rafa!

    • No. Federer has beaten Murray the last 100 tines they’ve played. He doesn’t allow Murray to control the rallies.

      Hope this helps.

  9. hahahah TWO backhand winners in the game!! He listened!

    One backhand DTL beauty and then the CC one was even better!

    Now don’t hold back…BELIEVE in yourself Rafa! Dictate! You’re the GOAT on this surface !

  10. The way to beat Murray & Djoker is to play aggressive it’s no use ping ponging with them, it’s their bread and butter.

  11. Rafa keeps practicing but his FH and BH still misfire so often! Without that FH, he’s not going to win. I guess the panicky Rafa is still there, not having confidence when facing the top guys.

    Murray plays very well no question about that, playing the right way to beat Rafa. Rafa must find the answer quickly. His FH is still his major problem.

  12. Picking Rafa again on this site looooooool..always picking with ur heart and not ur head on this site when it comes to nadal……face it he’s not good anymore, just accept it

  13. WOAAAHHHHHHHHH !!!! THAT was like the king of clay! winning the point out of nowhere!

    Can he consolidate now? Just needs to serve a tad better and show more authority on the forehand side.

  14. stats say that andy is only getting in 31% first serve this set. given how horrible his second serve is rafa really should be breaking him and winning…

  15. Aggressive backhand CC opened up the court, this was followed by a sizzling forehand inside in and then BOOM , forehand smash!

  16. Mike w APRIL 16, 2016 AT 12:34 PM
    Murray will finish this in 2 let’s face it, Rafa ain’t doing it today buddy

    Rafa takes the 2nd set 64!

    What were you saying again?

  17. The forehand is doing damage now.It is not only about hitting forehand DTL winners but also about how much damage an average forehand in doing in rallies. The latter has really improved!

    AND HE BREAKS!! long rally , Rafa pushes Murray back and finishes with a forehand drop shot winner!

    Rafa’s used the forehand drop shot very smartly set 2 onward!

    WOOOHOOO ! Rafa has a firm grip on this one right now….clearly with the ascendancy

    • great to hear vr! you are right that it is the quality of the average forehand that has been lacking…
      that’s the game changer

    • Yep, Rafa ups the mph on his FH and see what damage it can cause!

      Rafa has to start hitting like this from the get go. I just dont understand why Rafa only hits this way when he has to give chase and not to take the lead from point one! Its really bizarre!

  18. That was just an example of what I was taking about. Look at the weight on the forehand! Plus, he is creating better angles too which allows him to spread the court and wear his opponent down.

    Again, he spread the court so well!

  19. Please show a stat comparing the length on his forehands in sets 1, 2 and 3….it will be an upward sloping curve! steep gradient

  20. ADMIRABLE!

    it was a netural rally, Rafa wsa hitting with good depth and prevented Andy from Attacking and then Rafa ended the point with a forehand DTL out of nowhere!!

  21. Rafa’s avg rally stroke is doing twice as much damage! He is keeping Andy pinned behind the baseline now. Even when Andy tries to come up to the baseline, he can’t do much as the length is so good

  22. YESSSSSSSSSSSSS !! THis is over now 😀 😀 😀 WOOOOHOOOOOOOO

    OH MY! the umpire is angry ! he is saying Andy was hitting the ball AT HIM towards the chair!

    Murray must start behaving better. What is he doing?!

    • was it 19?! wow!

      @amy, the umpire went in to check a mark and called the ball out (correct call)…Andy lost the game as a result and then Andy thumped the ball into the net , close to the chair. The umpire was still jogging towards his chair though, not sitting…

  23. Rafa is BULLYING him around the court now. Rafa’s forehand is so reliable at the moment that he does not even need his backhand! Cruise control!

    Starting from 2nd serve forehand returns till the last rally ball, it is a completely diff shot right now

    • indeed! Now close it out 6-2 Rafa. Don’t lose even an ounce of that momentum! You will leave the court feeling so good.

  24. ONCE AGAIN the forehand steps up to take control! A combination of two venomous inside-in forehands!

    HAHAHAH the umpire gives a warning to Nadal!

  25. Serve and volley 😀

    Hits my favorite serving spot ( wide to the forehand corner on the deuce court)

    MP 2 and Murray DRILLS a backhand ROS winner CC :O

  26. Rafa hits an awesome inside out forehand but Andy ALMOST hit a forehand DTL winner in response! phewww

    the commentator was like ‘YESSSSS…’ and suddenly got silent as he realized it was out lol

  27. UN-REAL forehand CC! please show the RPM on that forehand cross court! SO SHORT and stingy it was ….only achievable with massiveeee top spin

    • Amy,

      I am here. You know what has been going on with me. I did record the match, but as I just posted, I did wake up to see the last game.

      I am very emotional right now. Still fighting back tears of happiness! I felt that the match would go 3 sets. I will now be able to watch the replay of the match.

      Rafa’s reaction at the end was amazing f!

  28. So not one of the top 4 made it to the final and Rafa dismissed 2 of them! I was so wishing he could have a go at Federer in the final but it was not to be.

    Vamos Rafa!

  29. Only fitting the final shot of the match was a FOREHAND from Rafa! It was all about his forehand!

    YEEESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!! WOOOHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO !

    SOOOOO important this win! Yes, he he beat a player of Murray’s caliber in a semi final…BUT, what’s more important is that he finished the match delivering blow after blow until his opponent was knocked out rather than taking and surviving blows till the very end and finding a way.

    Both ran more than 5 km which is A LOT OF running for 3 sets…

    Rafa’s in the final!! YEEEAAAAASSSSS

      • you’re welcome! Can’t wait to see him lift his 9th title here!

        and commentators are defending Murray non-stop. They are not mentioning even once that Andy was also breaching the time limit many times!!!

        • sorry to keep mentioning it but you were right about the rome 14 anology….
          that was the turning point for rg and i hope this is the same….

        • Commies actually tried to make excuses about Andy being over such as checking marks lol but claiming Rafa would still be over.

          Morons.

  30. Vamos!!! And its a relief he does not have to go thru novak for the title. If he can win tomorrow it would mean so much for his confidence and also nine titles in mc??

  31. Murray won the first set because Rafa let him. Rafa was a bit flat in he first set as if he had no strategy for the match.

  32. I woke up in time to see the last game! Rafa stayed strong and got it done! Three sets as u predicted.

    I actually am fighting back tears right now! I was thinking back to the 2010 MC when Rafa ended a 10 month title drought! This will be epic if he can win this tomorrow!

    Now that was the real Rafa, fighting and serving it out!

    I am over the moon!

      • Amy,

        It’s the best thing I could have woken up to today!

        I am so proud of Rafa! It’s been a long time since Rafa fans have been able to celebrate. But we have one more match to go!

        I am going to do my best to see the final live. I want to be here live blogging with everyone.

    • Glad you saw the end! Monte Carlo has so often brought an end to Rafa’s bad runs and let’s hope the same will happen again

  33. When I saw rafa’s match with Stan yesterday, I noticed that Rafa was hitting his forehand more consistently than I have seen. There was more depth and length and accuracy. From the comments here, it appears that Rafa was able to do it again with Murray.

  34. Rafa wins in three!! I thought Andy would test him and take a set and he did. Good week for Andy in the end but an even better week for Rafa. VAMOS!!

  35. Congrats folks.

    Was a bit nervous about this one as I knew Murray will take it hard to Rafa and Rafa will get right.

    Happy to see Rafa winning .

    That’s no 2 and no 4 beaten and a clay court quality player Thiem also beaten.

    Rafa please win no 9. Don’t goof up or get nervous. Both Tsonga and Gael can be dangerous.

    BTW rafa and Andy are friends. Why does Andy wine so much. Looks like habituated.Was handshake normal or ice cold ? Read somewhere that Andy called Rafas mind games fascinating when he called trainer and then said next changeover.

    • Well, it takes one mind game expert to know another. In 2011, Murray let it be known before they met in the SF in MC, that he had a sore elbow on his serving arm and was practicing in secret. Right up to walking on court he was allowed to test his arm on a practice court to decide whether he was fit to play or not.

      There was no sign of any elbow pain during the match and he served like a trouper taking his first set against Rafa on clay. OK, he had pain killers before the match but pain killers can only help you so much.

      • Wait. I thought poor Andy was the victim of mind-games because the “evil” Roger Federer dared a dig at the British press right before AO 2010? Help me out here. Don’t Nadal fans like Murray? Or is poor Andy on the blacklist too now?

          • I haven’t seen the match. Do you want like an Excel sheet updating you on my work schedule? Because you have a disturbing obsession with my life. I hope you’re not a stalker in general or I will have to run to the Cyber Cell notwithstanding complex jurisdictional issues.

          • That’s ironic. I feel the same way about you stalking fans of Rafa on this site.

            I think the “complex jurisdictional issues” would severely pale in comparison to, for lack of a better term, more pressing matters. That, seriously, is the single dumbest comment I’ve read on this board.

          • Wha? Who did I stalk? Do I ask you for your work routine or your personal details every time you make a post here? It’s not my fault you have so much time to enquire into my life and my holidays and whether I work on weekends or not.
            You’re completely ridiculous and you know it. I wasn’t even referring to you in any way but for some reason you felt the need to question me on my work day? That, is stalking.
            Good luck proving a general comment on the Nadal fanbase, which extends beyond this website, to be an example of stalking anyone. Preposterous as usual from you.

          • Ok guys no one cares. Cut the crap or Ricky will moderate you guys. AGAIN. (Again for hawkeye at least)

          • Every single comment from you has been a criticism of a Nadal fan (including the one directed at nadline10).

            You don’t come here to discuss tennis but simply to aggravate others.

            So your repeated behaviour of insults constitutes stalking more than my barbs at you every time you insult someone here.

            QED

          • ^This is not even true. More lies from you. If Ricky has to moderate, let him do so. I have no problem with it. I don’t live and die by this website.

          • Agreed that it’s up to Ricky not Benny G.

            The only lies here are your own. Same goes with your stalking so knock it off and stick to tennis as opposed to Rafans.

          • I am not the one demanding anyone’s work profile. THAT is off topic. Anyway, I’m done. You have way too much time on your hands and I’m just plain tired. Enjoy the final.

          • Glad to hear it.

            Besides you’re the one who offered your work schedule and busy career with two screens that didn’t allow you to post so much. And it was unsolicited so get over yourself and enjoy tennis. You’ll feel better. Trust me.

          • Lies again. The only thing I originally said was that I had a public holiday on the day, back in Jan, never imagining that you would use it to get personal. Everything else has been in response to your incessant rubbish which goes unmoderated on this website.

            Whatever. You know you’re a liar hence the repeated back-peddling.

          • Not true. You responded to nadline and you said you were done and don’t live and die on this site yet you insist on checking back repeatedly for a response so who’s the dishonest one.

            Pot and kettle. Nothing new.

          • Wrong again. I was referring to moderating. And yes, I am online right now ergo seeing posts and unfortunately your usual rubbish. Funny how the poster I responded to hasn’t reacted but you have all the time in the world to.

          • Hahahahahahahaha you’re hilarious fedfan.

            Good for a laugh.

            Nice of you to spend your precious little time here with us.

            How lucky we are!

  36. I was so sure Andy would come back into the match I was a nervous wreck and couldn’t watch the final set. Went into another room and listened to the garbage commentary. Feel like a shit now for doubting Rafa but that’s what his slump for the past two years has done.

    When I realised he was up in the final set came back to watch the last few games. Like NNY I welled up when he actually got the win.

    Bravo Rafa. Sad for Murray but was disappointed by his ungracious handshake and the way he stomped off the court.

    Cant wait for tomorrow.

    • murray behaved very badly at the wtf match when he complained about rafa for a whole set!!
      am getting pretty sick of his whiny petulant behaviour…

      • Amy,

        I have to agree. I don’t appreciate murray’s poor sportsmanship. It’s the one thing that turns me off about him.

    • ed,

      I was also disappointed by andy’s cold handshake at the net. I have supported Andy in the past, something I would never do for Novak and Fed. But at times his sportsmanship is lacking.

      I think we have all struggled during rafa’s slump and had our doubts, so no need to feel bad about that. We are only human. It’s hard on the fans, too.

      I thought Murray would be the toughest battle. I felt that he would come out and give Rafa a match. But it only makes it sweeter to see Rafa triumph in the end.

      I take nothing for granted until the last ball is struck and the trophy is in rafa’s hands tomorrow.

  37. That was great to see! Wow! I am going to enjoy watching the replay of this match! This was a come from behind win for Rafa and that can only give him even more good feelings going into the final.

    Beating Thiem, Stan and Murray is a great accomplishment! No easy draw here!

    • That is the stat the tennis channel showed during the match. I just watched the replay and saw the moment when they showed it. So Murray was over the time limit, too.

      I am really over Murray whining about it over and over again. He also got into it with the chair umpire.

  38. Rafa wants to become better every day.
    SportReview, April 16, 2016:
    Rafa after his SF match: “I don’t want to talk every day about if I am back or I am not back. I am what I am today. I’m in the final of Monte-Carlo. That’s great news. That’s very important for me. Rafael Nadal of 2016 will not be the same as 2009 or 2008. Every year is different, every feeling is different. I want to be today better than yesterday and tomorrow better than today… I don’t want to think about the past.”

    ?

    http://www.thesportreview.com/tsr/2016/04/rafael-nadal-beats-andy-murray-for-100th-final-targets-no9-in-monte-carlo/

    • Rafa’s quotes on the MC Masters website:

      ¤¤ “It’s a very important week for me, being in a final here again in Monte-Carlo, winning against very tough opponents,” said Nadal. “That’s a lot of great confidence, good news for me. Let’s see if tomorrow I can playing at the same level.”
      “I am trying my best every single day. I want to be today better than yesterday and tomorrow better than today, and after tomorrow better than tomorrow.”
      “I didn’t play badly in the first set, but not deep enough and not enough inside the court,” said Nadal. “So Andy had the chance to have control of the points too many times inside the court, hitting winners.”
      “Something was not going well in that first set because he was playing too easy, in my opinion. Then I needed to change something. I think I did.”
      “I think I played a great second set in terms of mentality. In the third set, I played aggressive. I played a great set, too. Very good points. Was a great match, I think.” ¤¤

      http://montecarlotennismasters.com/live-now-murray-leads-nadal/?lang=en

  39. I was in the airport when I learned Rafa won! That’s one of the happiest moments of my life! Thank you, Rafa for the fighting spirit and for the never give up attitude! That’s our true Rafa!

    I will be able to watch the finals! 🙂 Go for it, Rafa!
    Vamooooos Champ!

  40. La Monf won’t be that easy… Rafa will be ready though! Can’t wait to see him biting that Trophy which was HIS from 2005-12

  41. I agree that Monfils won’t be that easy. He’s been so much more focused. But if Rafa can come out playing the way he did against Murray, then I expect him to get the win?

  42. RT @christophclarey: “You have zero respect for what I do” – angry chair umpire Damien Dumusois to Andy Murray. Extraordinary exchange

      • That said, he wasn’t very good mistimimg Murray and giving him a time warning after just 19 seconds after the point ended.

        He also messed up on a line call really poorly.

    • When I watched the replay today, they showed the whole exchange between Andy and the chair umpire. The chair umpire clearly felt disrespected by Andy and let him know it.

      I was very impressed by Rafa after watching the match. I thought that Andy came out strong in that first set. I expected him to do that. Rafa made adjustments in the second set and that’s where I thought he finally took control about midway through it. But I wax struck by how tough Rafa was as he battled back. He got the early break, but was broken back. Then he got another break, but faced 15-40 in his next service game. He fought off the break points and held his serve and the break. This was a pressure cooker of a set that required focus, concentration and mental strength from Rafa. He passed that test, while producing some vintage shots that were just magnificent. Rafa was very aggressive and his forehand did a lot of the damage. He hit a scintillating DTL forehand winner that hit the line with pinpoint accuracy.

      Rafa’s body language was exceptional. He was pumping his fist and very purposeful as he moved about on the court. But there was also that look in his eyes again. It’s a look that I have not seen very much in the last year and a half. It was a look of intensity, the will to win, a warrior’s spirit.

      Welcome back, Rafa! You have been sorely missed. Now he has to go out there tomorrow and get this title. I was reminded one more time how much tennis needs Rafa.

      • Well said NNY. The warrior Rafa is back! I feel so happy for Rafa about this win, it will certainly add to his confidence.

        I said it before, that Rafa needs to win something big without facing Djoko. After that, his confidence will be there (that he can beat all the rest not named Djoko) and he and his team can then think of strategy to deal with Djoko.

        Without confidence, Rafa can never beat Djoko, dont even need to talk strategy.

        • Lucky,

          Nice to see you here! I was hoping you would give us your thoughts. Things really worked out well for Rafa with Novak going out early. This was the opening he needed.

          This was the best match I have seen Rafa play in s long time. I have to believe that he will do it again tomorrow. It’s there for him. On his racket.

          It would be great for Rafa and his fans to be able to celebrate a great win!

  43. They are showing the argument with the chair umpire and Andy on the tennis channel replay. The chair umpire said to Andy that he has zero respect for what he does. He said that Andy hit the ball at the chair.

    I think Andy was frustrated at that point emotionally and felt the match slipping away. Rafa was up two breaks at that point and in full control. I think Andy just wanted to take it out on someone. But the chair umpire was not amused.

  44. Damien is Rafa’s #1 fan and cheats for him all the time. I see we can add Andy to the list of players that can’t stand “Cheatin’ Rafa”.

    • andy does this with numerous players. remember the ao 15 final when he had fits at nole??
      given that andy swan dives all over the court himself and has been called out for this by other players he is in no position to take the moral highground.
      given your reasoning andy hates cheatin nole as well….

      • oh and just to be crystal clear i like both rafa and nole.
        i am calling andy out on this one for sure.
        you can’t go around shouting at your box and swearing indiscriminately as well as having questionable aches and pains yourself and set yourself up as some kind of pristine moral figure.

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