Monte-Carlo SF preview and prediction: Rublev vs. Fritz

Andrey Rublev
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With Rafael Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz skipping the tournament and top two seeds Novak Djokovic and Stefanos Tsitsipas bowing out in the third round and quarterfinals, respectively, there will be not only a first-time champion but also a surprising champion at the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters.

Among the contenders for the title are Andrey Rublev and Taylor Fritz, who will go head-to-head in the semifinals on Saturday afternoon. You have to think that whoever wins will have at least a decent chance to beat whoever emerges from the top half of the draw, which currently includes Holger Rune, Jannik Sinner, and Lorenzo Musetti.

It’s a high-stakes matchup and it’s the seventh all time between these familiar foes. Fritz leads the head-to-head series 4-2 and has won three in a row at Rublev’s expense, including twice last year at Masters 1000 events. The American prevailed 7-5, 6-4 in Indian Wells–also in the semis–and 6-7(4), 6-2, 7-5 in Cincinnati.

Fritz’s career has only taken flight to an even greater extent since those meetings. The 25-year-old has become a staple of the top 10 and he is 23-6 this season with a title in Delray Beach, quarterfinal results in Indian Wells and Miami, two semifinal showings, and now another semifinal following victories over Stan Wawrinka, Jiri Lehecka, and Stefanos Tsitsipas.

Taylor Fritz


Rublev booked his spot in the last four by beating Jaume Munar, Karen Khachanov, and Jan-Lennard Struff, also dropping just one set in the process. The world No. 6 is 16-8 in 2023 and is bidding for a second final appearance in Monte-Carlo, having finished runner-up to Tsitsipas in 2021.

It’s safe to say that Rublev has his work cut out for him against an opponent who is in superior form. He also has no obvious advantages in this matchup between players who like to blast forehands from the baseline. Fritz has a clear edge in the serve and backhand departments and he seems to be getting better and better on clay with every match.

Look for Fritz to build on his impressive 6-2, 6-4 win over Tsitsipas and beat Rublev–again.

Pick: Fritz in 2

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23 Comments on Monte-Carlo SF preview and prediction: Rublev vs. Fritz

  1. Well this isn’t great quality tennis!!
    Can think of a couple of Spaniards who would obliterate both of them…
    Come on Ruby!!

  2. Apparently yesterday Fritz only got 8 first serves in in the first set.
    Shows how crap Tsitsi must have been playing if he couldn’t take advantage of so many 2nd serves. He doesn’t have a great return…

  3. OK have had enough of this. Ruby isn’t going to win if he can’t come to the net. He has so many opportunities to come in and finish the point and almost never does.
    Until he fixes this he will never win big.

  4. Ruby win the second set 6-1!! Really honestly they are both pretty useless clay courters.
    Am not going to watch as I don’t trust Rublev. His capacity to screw things up is amazing.
    The best clay courters are on the other side of the draw. Whichever wins will win the title.

    • Yes he very evidently was. I only saw a small part of the match and he made about 5 fh ues on easy shots in a row.
      Neither Fritz or Rublev can really play on clay.
      Sinner and Rune are both miles better.

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