Monte-Carlo R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Dimitrov, Rublev vs. Bautista Agut

Familiar foes Rafael Nadal and Grigor Dimitrov will meet again on Thursday, when quarterfinal spots are handed out in Monte-Carlo. Another intriguing matchup pits Andrey Rublev against Roberto Bautista Agut.

Grigor Dimitrov vs. (3) Rafael Nadal

Nadal and Dimitrov will be squaring off for the 15th time in their careers when they clash in round three of the Monte-Carlo Masters on Thursday. Only once in 14 tries has Dimitrov managed to prevail, and that came on the hard courts of Beijing in 2016. Nadal has since won six times in a row, including twice on clay to extend his head-to-head record on this surface to 5-0. Each of their two most recent clay-court encounters have come in Monte-Carlo, where the Spaniard cruised 6-4, 6-1 in both 2018 and 2019.

Nothing suggests that things will be any different this time around. Nadal captured his 13th French Open title last year and is well-rested for the 2021 clay-court swing, having not played a match since the Australian Open prior to this week. He opened in style on Wednesday by hammering Federico Delbonis 6-1, 6-2. Dimtrov has advanced with straight-set victories over Jan-Lennard Struff and Jeremy Chardy. Of course, those are relatively one-dimensional players who won’t exactly have prepared the Bulgarian well for this upcoming matchup. All signs point to Nadal taking care of business–again–with relative ease.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 7 games or fewer

(6) Andrey Rublev vs. (9) Roberto Bautista Agut

Rublev and Bautista Agut will be facing each other for the second time this season and for the sixth time overall. Although Bautista Agut got the job done 6-3, 6-3 last month in Doha and leads the head-to-head series 3-2, Rublev won their only previous clay-court contest last fall in Hamburg via a 6-2, 7-5 decision.

Despite hailing from Spain, Bautista Agut is by no means a clay-court specialist. He certainly isn’t weak on the red stuff, but he also isn’t great–and you have to be great to beat Rublev pretty much anywhere these days. The eighth-ranked Russian is 21-4 in 2021 following Wednesday’s 6-3, 6-2 beatdown of Salvatore Caruso. Bautista Agut is coming off routine wins over Americans Taylor Fritz and Tommy Paul, but this is obviously a steep step up in competition.

Pick: Rublev in 2