Monte-Carlo R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Zverev, Wawrinka vs. Cuevas

A blockbuster third-round contest in Monte-Carlo will pit Rafael Nadal against Alexander Zverev on Thursday. A place in the quarterfinals will also be at stake when Stan Wawrinka continues his campaign against Pablo Cuevas.

(14) Alexander Zverev vs. (4) Rafael Nadal

Nadal and Zverev will be going head-to-head for the third time in their careers when they clash in the third round of the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters on Thursday. Their two previous encounters have not disappointed. Nadal survived 6-7(8), 6-0, 7-5 at the 2016 Indian Wells Masters, where Zverev infamously bricked an easy volley on his own match point. The 19-year-old German, who in fact turns 20 on Thursday, came close again at this season’s Australian Open before going down 4-6, 6-3, 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-2 as Nadal eventually made his way to the final. Roger Federer ended the Spaniard’s run Down Under and toppled him again in Indian Wells (fourth round) and Miami (title match). Nadal has otherwise been stellar in 2017, with a 20-2 record against opponents not named Federer following his 6-0, 5-7, 7-3 victory over Kyle Edmund on Wednesday.

Although it is still early, arguably no one has been better this week than Zverev. The world No. 20 is through to last 16 without the loss of a set and he did not even come close to dropping set in routs of Andreas Seppi and Feliciano Lopez. Zverev is 13-6 for a season that has been highlighted by a title in Montpellier and a quarterfinal performance in Miami. This will not be easy for Nadal, but he should showcase more consistency in his second clay-court match of the year and maintain the kind of level that was on display in his opening set against Edmund.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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(3) Stan Wawrinka vs. (16) Pablo Cuevas

Like Nadal, Wawrinka also endured a scare in his Wednesday opener but battled to a 6-2, 4-6, 6-2 win over Jiri Vesely–who upset Novak Djokovic at this tournament last spring. The third-ranked Swiss captured the Monte-Carlo title in 2015 to go along with one other semifinal finish (2009) and three quarterfinal showings.

Wawrinka is one victory away from another appearance in the last eight, but his form has been unspectacular of late (15-5 record this season with no titles) and Cuevas is one of the best dirt-ballers in the business. Although the 27th-ranked Uruguayan is just 10-6 this year, he captured a clay-court title in Sao Paulo–for his sixth career winner’s trophy and sixth on the red stuff. Cuevas has advanced this week by taking out Viktor Troicki and Joao Sousa in easy straight sets. Unfortunately for the 16th seed, he is just 3-10 lifetime against top-10 opponents and is 0-3 in his last three such efforts.

Pick: Wawrinka in 3

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127 Comments on Monte-Carlo R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Zverev, Wawrinka vs. Cuevas

  1. I see both of these going three sets. Stan’s play is pretty inconsistent at the moment, and Cuevas is getting better this year. Stan in 3. Zverev is currently the best young player not named Kyrgios, and he is getting better every month. Nadal was at least tested in his first match; he passed, but not exactly with flying colors. His level should improve, but even so I think Zverev takes this one in 3 sets.

      • Are you going to make a call on the matches, Hawk?

        It seems a fairly high % of your posts are about me, personally. And I’m pretty sure 100% of your posts that respond to me say something about me, personally, as opposed to responding substantively to the content of my post.

        Who completes who, exactly?

          • Here’s a challenge, Hawk. Try to bring that second percentage I mentioned down under 100%. Try, just once, to respond to what I say, instead of insulting me personally.

            As I said, I gave you full bragging rights regarding my going back on my pledge not to respond to you. But it is getting to be kind of old news, don’t you think?

          • Here’s a challenge, Joe Smith. Try to bring the 99.44% of your posts about Rafa and Me down to something respectable. Try, just once, NOT to respond to what I say, instead of insulting Nadal.

            As I said, you gave me nothing regarding an olive branch (which I doubt you know the meaning of). But your Nadal bashing thinly guised as something other than dime-a-dozen fedfawn fedal PTSF is getting to be kind of old fake news, don’t you think?

  2. Hawk, I will repeat what I said a few weeks ago: I have no interest in making internet enemies. I am determinedly trying to make peace with you. I think you often have perceptive points to make. Often I disagree with them. It is nothing personal. You clearly are capable of treating other views with which you disagree with respect. I am asking you extend the same courtesy to me.

    I have nothing personally against Nadal. Others who seem to care quite deeply about Nadal, such as Mira, can see that.

    Can we push the reset button?

    • Joe…For your information,i really enjoyed reading your post and many other’s,like Eugene,TENNIS,Kevin…please keep posting them..it can give me a very valuable information and view about Rafa and his game..

      • MA,

        I agree with your sentiments! I enjoy reading comments even from those with whom I disagree. In fact, I think those are the most valuable because I may get a different perspective. I hope those people keep posting!

        • Hey Nny!…First of all..How r u?U missed 2 of my post that was meant for u,u know…hehe..but,that’s okay…and yeah,like u i value the comments from other fans very much because they’re usually made a comments without bias..they maybe be able see things differently from us because of their natural stand regarding Rafa..

    • Sure Joe Smith.

      Just be sincere with integrity and respect like the other posters you say I disagree with and respect. No offence though, I don’t think you are interested but let’s give it a go.

      I just offered you an olive branch.

  3. I like Zv in this match vs Rafa…he’s younger, hungrier, and should have enough confidence to take down Nadal…in straight….ans Stan in straight.

  4. It is Zverev’s birthday tomorrow, and he obviously can beat Rafa tomorrow… But I just don’t think he will, even if I don’t have any good reason except for that I just don’t think he will beat Rafa at MC. Rafa in 3.

    • Yeah, I expect Rafa to win, because Rafa knows what to expect from A Zverev. It’s unlike vs Kyle, when Rafa thought he had it after that first easy set, but ended up had to fight tooth and nail for the win.

    • Actually Kyle hits better than Zverev; Kyle has precision and power, and it’s precision that I find Zverev lacking. Kyle also has good temperament, being calm and patient (I quite like the guy and think he can go far and up in his career if he remains calm) whilst Zverev is more impatient.

      I think it will be easier for Rafa today being more familiar with Zverev’s game.

        • Zverev is a much better player than Edmunds.

          YTD and 52-wk rank make that obvious alone.

          If Rafa plays like he did on clay last year, he’ll win.

          Big if.

        • See Big AL, I said Zverev didn’t have the precision of Kyle’s. Who needs a BH when you have Kyle’s FH and he could hit it at his FH and BH corners! More lethal, I think, when hitting it CC I/O from BH corner!

  5. Hope Rafa gets it done in 2! I expect Rafa to play better in this match. He had been pushed in his first clay court match this year and I now expect his improved showing. I like Zverev and think he has great future, but this is clay and Rafa is the King no matter what!

    Vamos!

  6. Wow, Andy really looks rusty out there…One can just tell which players DO NOT enjoy playing on clay, Murray being one of them…

  7. Wawrinka in 3. I’ve been watching Cuevas throughout 2017 and he is really solid on clay (continually improvement). It wouldn’t surprise me if Cuevas wins in 3. IMO it’ll be a close match with one break in the third set to decide it all.

  8. Quite an untidy match this Murray vs ARV match; both losing serve so readily, and now Murray giving up the break adv in the third set to let ARV back into the match.

    • Insane! When I come to think of it, Andy was two breaks up in the third and still managed to lose the match! Unbelievable!

  9. I can’t believe Andy let the opportunity sailed away from him just like that..but then i’m not surprised either…i think the struggled to get to the No 1 spot last year has taken it’s toll on his mind and body now…Hope,he will be back to his usual self as soon as possible..

    • Yeah first tournament back for Muzz. He didn’t play terrible and AVR played very well.

      Murray has become a very good clay court player constantly improving year to year. The only losses he had on clay last two years was once to Rafa and three times to Nole.

      Before today, Murray was undefeated at 43-0 against everyone else on clay dating back to 2014.

      His clay record last five years:

      2012: 9-4
      2013: 5-3
      2014: 9-4
      2015: 17-1
      2016: 18-3

  10. Playing against an in-form Zverev is like playing against a red-hot Gulbis for Rafa (though I feel Gulbis was a bit more dangerous from the baseline when really on).

    Zverev has a HUGE second serve so rafa will have to return well. Rafa is better at winning second serve RETURN points than at winning on his own second serve! he on 60% second serve return points in last year’s MC which is ridiculous.

    I think Rafa will be too much to handle for Zverev on this court. Edmund was good practice and I feel Rafa will play better today.

    He is doomed if he doesn’t improve but I am sure he will improve today.

    Rafa in 2.

  11. Stan lost as I expected. Cueves is playing very well and in good form whilst Stan was struggling even against Vesley.

  12. Just caught the end of the match. WaWa seemed distracted, almost uninterested in the outcome.

    Maybe he’s saving his energy for Roland Garros.

    What a topsy, turvy MC this is proving to be.

  13. Wow, one of @AlbertRamos88, @Cilic_Marin, @PabloCuevas22 and @La_Pouille will make the MC final. They have one clay Masters semi final appearance combined (Pouille 2016 Rome) in their careers.

  14. Stars are aligned here for Rafa to take his tenth title. He should win this event. Stan and Murray out and Nole struggling mightily with his confidence. Plus Rafa crushing Zverev at the moment. Nice to see the badass back in business. Vamos Rafa!!

  15. Darren Cahill‏Verified account @darren_cahill 5m5 minutes ago
    Alex way too loose vs Rafa today. Been in every game but blown leads with UFE. Rafa very sharp. FH is jumping again. Great early clay signs

  16. For Stan, losing early at lead-up tournaments has proven to be fairly irrelevant to how he will play at majors… Like in 2015 when, save for a Rome semifinal run, he lost early in every single tournament between Rotterdam and RG haha. Then he showed up at RG and blew people off the court. After his semifinal showing in Rome, people may have given him more props going into RG, but then he goes to Geneva the week before RG and loses early in a damn 250! He’s so unpredictable. Even at US Open last year, nobody was picking him to win it. So although losing early is never good for anyone going into a major, it seems to be less of an issue for Stan…

    As for Murray, I think that he is a player who generally DOES need to do well at the run-up tournaments in order to play his best at the majors. I was actually of the opinion that Andy should skip Monte Carlo all together to give him the maximum amount of time to recover from his elbow injury. I was pretty surprised that he decided to play the tournament. So while it’s not good for him to have lost early, it could turn out to help him physically, since now he will have a few weeks to recover before Madrid. He could obviously make a full recovery and start playing really well again in time for Roland Garros, but I am personally doubtful that he will be a real factor at Roland Garros. I just don’t really see him getting his body back fully post-injury, and getting his level of tennis high enough, to truly challenge for Roland Garros… I also know that anything can happen, so I would never count him out completely. I just don’t like his chances much at this point.

  17. This title is so Rafa’s for the taking at the moment… Unless he still has a mental block against Novak should they meet in the final, this trophy is just waiting for Rafa’s hands…

    • Kev…You’re soooo spot on buddy!!If u can see me now,i’m grinning like a cheshire cat who just ate a bird steak for breakfast!hehe…

  18. So Rafa in 2 easy sets. I knew Rafa would rise his level (which he did significantly) but I expected Zverev to play better. But, his previous opponents played really bad so this was a different proposition.

    Felt like the old days. An opponent who can give and has given Rafa trouble on hard courts plays him on clay and it turns out to be a lop-sided affair.

    Rafa was really good today and he will only improve from here.

    It won’t be wise to bet against Rafa winning his 10th title here.

    He has further strengthened my belief which I showed before the start of the tournament. I hope he continues the winning ways. Vamos!

    • I just saw the end of Rafa’s match! Even though I missed it I so happy to hear that he played well! They were talking out it on the tennis channel!

      I just happy that Rafa played well and is looking more like his formidable self!

      I am so happy!

      Cue as beat Stan!

      • Too many typos in my last post. Typing too fast! But I am just very happy that Rafa played well!

        Both Stan and Murray out! We are getting closer to Rafa and Novak!

  19. I told ya all that Djokovic, Murray, Wawrinka wont make it that far to meet rafa.
    well Djokovic is still around, but I dont think he will reach the latter stages.
    Easy pickings here. Just like the good old days

  20. RT:
    #Nadal: “Last times against #Zverev I played defensive. He’s a dangerous player but today I only made few errors and I was aggressive on FH”

  21. Zverev in a hurry to celebrate his birthday. Rafa played very well and Zverev not so. Still, it’s good to see Rafa a bit more aggressive today, stepping inside the court and moving to the net and so efficient there. I know he doesn’t want to make the same mistake of yesterday’s.

    I’m so happy Rafa played so well and not allowing Zverev much chances to play his game.

        • Sorry, it should read between the ears. Between the years doesn’t make sense so no points to you hawkeye for drawing any bogus conclusions from an obvious typo. And we know who said between the ears. Hawkeye you should be hard on yourself as you are constantly disrespecting Rafa’s mental strength.

  22. I think Rafa decided to forget the hype around Zverev and just play his game. Zverev was out of his depth. The commies keep going on about the MP Zverev had against Rafa at IW last year as if all their subsequent matches would start at match point to Zverev.

    • Exactly, so stupid. They were still talking about Simon’s lone win over Rafa at Madrid indoor HC in 2008!! Not forgetting that Tsonga’s AO2008 SF win over Rafa! Of course once they see Foggy, they’ll yap and yap nonstop about his three wins over Rafa!

  23. I Think people need to look at these matches in isolation, rather than rabbiting on about the past ones, Rosol, Soderling, its not like he hasnt beaten them since, yet the commies cant seem to resist bringing them up ad nauseum ….

    • They only do it to Rafa. All unlikely loses suffered by Federer, Djokovic and Murray are quickly airbrushed and never ever mentioned again, whilst players who beat Rafa are announced on court with their wins, sets and MPs against Rafa..

      • lol! But if I never again hear about Soderling it’ll be too soon. Anyway, so proud of Rafa. True champion. He doesn’t play the past or the future. He plays the guy in front of him.

        Sorry for Andy today. The TC commmie said his serve speed was way down so the elbow is clearly still bothering him. You don’t need a fast serve to win on clay (hello young Rafa!) but it helps.

      • Of course nadline.

        Rafa’s always been the biggest threat to the federazzi’s narrative of the peRFect Maestro GOAT and has historically been the greatest chink in his armour (Nole only until recently albeit much less so).

        But that’s really a compliment then, when you think about it.

      • nadline10 (AT 3:41 PM; 4:52 PM)
        I wonder who pays to professional (!) English-speaking TV commies and the court announcers for that.

          • hawkeye APRIL 20, 2017 AT 5:29 PM
            “I think Stan actually handles the paperwork.
            Roger needs to keep it at arm’s length.”

            ****************
            Lol

  24. That’s because it’s not easy to beat Rafa,no matter what surface,,more so on clay..so,if someone be able to beat Rafa,that is a very tremendous achievement by them..not only they’re going to be proud of themselves for successful tamed one of the greatest in the history of tennis[and believe me,THAT WAS HUGE achievement]…we,Rafa fans should look at it as a great compliment to Rafa as well..it’s only sealed Rafa’s status as the most feared,the most hard to defeat..no matter who’s his opponents are..Isn’t it refreshing to hear The Great Roger Federer,Novak,Andy and ALL players uttered this magical words about our beloved Rafa?

    • MA,

      I agree and well said! After all, there aren’t many who have been able to get a win against Rafa, especially on clay!

      So we should take it as a compliment when it is considered such an achievement! That’s the best way to deal with it. The fact is it’s news when anyone beats Rafa!
      ?

      • Hey Nny,My Queen!!…Hehe,thank u for your words!…Err,yeah..if we see something and not rushed to look at the negative side of it,then we be able to see the positive things about it…

        • MA,

          Yes! Turn it around and look at it positively! You said it so very well!

          It should make us proud that beating Rafa has such a high value on it!

          I am feeling better after Rafa’s win over Zverev!
          ?

          • Nny!!hahaha…oh!it turned out that u need a Rafa dose everyday it seems!!and i thought my beautiful msges that can make u better all this time!!silly me!!hehehe…

            Oh btw Nny…i’ve read hundreds of article over the years that contain every players words parroting almost the same phrase everytime they played rafa..win or lose..”U know Rafa,he’s one of the greatest,he will fight for every point,he will chase every ball..it’s very hard to play him,so u have to bring your A game..because if u bring less,he will eat u alive”…and what amazed me Nny is that,this words not only uttered by players on tour but other legends as well…Jmac,Boris,Rod laver,Sampras,..urgh!EVERYONE Nny!..I remembered Sampras words at AO 14 when Rafa met with Roger in semis..I think Pam Shriver ask him what his opinion about the match…and he said..”Roger needs to do something special today because Rafa is a BEAST out there”!..and we all know the outcome of that match…RAFA WAS AWESOME that day!!God!I missed that Rafa very much!!

    • I posted this more than a year ago:

      augusta08 JANUARY 21, 2016 AT 7:05 AM: “Beating Rafa is everybody’s meal ticket.”
      LOL

  25. Agree Ramara, Rafa as they failed to mention actually beat that very same player the following year, and Federer lost to that very same player the following year, do they go on about that ont though , no do they heck ? ….

    • Hey Al!…U send a msg to my FB?In that case,my FB is really weird Al..i look at it all day long and see nothin’!…I’ll answer u now Al!

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