Monte-Carlo R2 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Edmund, Murray vs. Muller

April 18, 2017 Ricky Match previews 180

Rafael Nadal will kick off his bid for a 10th Monte-Carlo title on Wednesday, when he sees Kyle Edmund on the other side of the net. The second-round schedule is also highlighted by Andy Murray’s opener against Gilles Muller.

Kyle Edmund vs. (4) Rafael Nadal

Nadal will be playing for the first time since losing the Miami final to Roger Federer when he takes the court against Edmund during second-round action at the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters on Wednesday. The seventh-ranked Spaniard is still in search of his first title this season, but he is second behind Federer in the race to the World Tour Finals. Nadal also finished runner-up at the Australian Open and the Abierto Mexicano Telcel in addition to his Miami performance.

Edmund set up a first-ever showdown against this week’s No. 4 seed by beating fellow Brit Dan Evans 7-5, 6-1 on Monday. The 22-year-old has climbed to 45th in the rankings (five spots off his career-high) thanks in part to eight ATP-level match victories during the 2017 campaign. Unfortunately for Edmund, this is just about the worst possible second-round draw he could have been dealt. Not only is Nadal 58-4 lifetime in Monte-Carlo with nine titles, but he is also 19-2 against players not named Federer this season–and Edmund sure isn’t Federer.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 5-7 games

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(1) Andy Murray vs. Gilles Muller

Murray has played his part in an alarming, injury-plagued slump for the top two men in the world this season–or perhaps “not played” would be more accurate. Both Murray and Djokovic skipped Miami with elbow injuries, so the top-ranked Scot has not taken the court since losing his Indian Wells opener to Vasek Pospisil in early March.

Up first for Murray in Monte-Carlo on Wednesday is a sixth career meeting with Muller, who is a hopeless 0-5 in the head-to-head series. Murray, 11-2 in total sets at the Luxembourgian’s expense, most recently cruised 6-3, 6-2 at the 2015 Canada Masters. The two veterans have never faced each other on clay, which is the worst surface for both players–but especially for Muller. That being said, the world No. 28 earned his place in this matchup with an impressive 6-2, 6-2 rout of Tommy Robredo on Tuesday. Murray, though, has never had any trouble breaking down big servers–Muller included–and he should do the same in this one as long he is close to 100 percent.

Pick: Murray in 2

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180 Comments on Monte-Carlo R2 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Edmund, Murray vs. Muller

      • That said, I DO think it would be quite apropos for the poster named TENNIS to bet it all on Edmund based on his own thoughtful analysis and therefore I HIGHLY recommend that he follow through and put his money where his mouth is, talk being such a relatively cheap commodity and all.

        Reply

          • Hey TENNIS are you going to mail money to this forum? Sounds great! Definitely better than posting analysis based on bizarre assumptions.

          • Yeah you didn’t offend me TENNIS. No offense, but few posters would warrant that, certainly none that haven’t been around very long.

            You can post pretend money, like pieman does. Nobody can prove otherwise.

          • This is why people don’t post more frequently. Hawkeye suggests I bet it all on Edmund. All I said was Edmund is a poor 1st round draw for Nadal given that he has a powerful forehand. Mary would like me not to post analysis anymore unless it is in line with her thoughts. Do you think anyone with less knowledge wants to read jabs and have their faces rubbed in their errors? Try not to be so small in the future. You will prosper.

          • Sorry to offend you TENNIS. I wouldn’t put much weight into what I, Mary, or any anonymous poster FTM says.

            So yeah, sincerely, I apologize if I offended you.

          • TENNIS, you have no doubt garnered that this is a Rafa-crazy site. Most of the posters are good-natured fans, but some take any criticism of Nadal quite personally. But Hawk’s suggestion not to put too much weight on what he says is sage advice.

          • Sorry TENNIS, I was just ribbing you. In your initial posts you sounded as if you had a sense of humor. I did not mean to offend you. Please feel free to post your analysis. Diverse views are welcome.

  5. TENNIS, see? Pay no never mind to me. Don’t blame me if you don’t place that bet and end up regretting it…

    Mr. Steve says:

    The day’s afternoon showcase also features its most intriguing matchup. Nadal and the 22-year-old Edmund have never played, but if Rafa’s matches with other young guns—Dominic Thiem, Lucas Pouille, Alexander Zverev—over the last year are any indication, this could be a good one. The 45th-ranked Edmund has the forehand to push Rafa around, and he looked sharp for most of his first-round win over Daniel Evans. Can the Brit join his fellow Next Genners with a signature win? Or maybe a signature close loss?

    Winner: Nadal

    Reply

  6. I think Rafa should take care of Edmund j routine fashion. I don’t think this match should be close. I think Rafa is ready.

    Rafa for the win in 2 sets.

    Reply

      • vr,

        I have been checked out and am doing well! Thanks for asking!

        I am looking forward to seeing Rafa in his first match on clay! Even though he talked about having to get used to playing on clay again after a year, I believe that once he steps on that red earth it’s like coming home!

        I am happy to see the positive feelings from you and Lucky. Ed hasn’t posted a lot recently, but she did post a comment about never writing off Rafa!

        It’s good to be feeling well again so that I can really enjoy seeing Rafa and being there to support him!
        ?

        Reply

  9. Murray needs a warm-up round. 3rd game hasn’t finished yet, and he already managed to make a couple of doubles. Opening rounds are so dangerous here. Berdych, Wawrinka both had to play 3 sets. Let’s what Andy and Rafa will do.

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  15. Rafa must always serve poorly in at least one game to get broken. It’s a bad habit these days. When his opponent goes for broke, he tends to retreat and plays more defensively. I really miss the more aggressive Rafa of 2008!

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  16. Rafa (and Kyle) making life difficult for Rafa! Rafa shouldn’t have lost that service game after breaking Kyle in the third game second set. He’s letting Kyle having hope here and Kyle is going for broke.

    Rafa better serve well this game to hold serve.

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  18. Rafa always has problems vs going for broke players. He won’t fight fire with fire (which he is capable of doing) but would prefer to think his way out of troubles.

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  20. That’s the gist of Rafa’s tennis – think his way out of troubles, changing things up when necessary.

    He’s not the outright offensive type the way Kyle is, so he has to put us on roller coaster rides so often! I do feel has lost a bit of his anticipation skills, not sharp enough at times.

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  21. He’s not looking sharp now and that’s his problem these days, plays well the first set and then struggles in the second. Even on clay he’s like that!

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    • poor set from Rafa, good stuff from Edmund.

      Rafa really lost his way. Sometimes it’s just hard to explain why he plays such tentative tennis when under pressure.

      Reply

    • Exactly Lucky!If his opponents’s level are not high and make a lot of UE’s then he will play brilliantly…but if his opponents start to up their level then we will see Rafa start to struggle and his level will drop automatically…

      Reply

  22. Oh dear, a third set! Who says Rafa will not lose a set here?

    Rafa’s serve is still his biggest problem! He only wins 29% of his second serve this set! Really poor!

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  24. I think he’s still nervous, not very sure of himself! I think he badly needs a title, then he’ll be more confident and starts believing in his game and in himself.

    He has to fight fire with fire now and not let Kyle dictate.

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  25. If Rafa loses here, it’ll be very disappointing for him and his supporters. It seems he’s not able to play offensive tennis these days, can’t seem to read the game well and so is hesitant at times. He clearly has lost some of his power and his serve is not helping him.

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    • I just remembered that Rafa was playing today. I just turned it on to see that Rafa lost the second set. So much for a routine match!

      Bageled in the first set, but wins the second set? This is concerning.

      Reply

      • VR, he has. His FHDTL lacks depth and Kyle is able to get to it and returns with interest. Maybe it’s his footwork that’s not up to par, caught with wrong footing at times.

        Kyle just hits as big and as hard as possible not unlike Sod, and Rafa is overpowered at times. Perhaps it’s their first meeting, and Rafa tries to bring Kyle to the net but not knowing Kyle can play well at the net.

        This first match is a wake up call for Rafa, that he has to stay focused and maintains his consistency, not allowing it to drop by much if not his opponent will take advantage.

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  36. Edmund was not waiting for Rafa to hit short. He was taking the ball early and making it happen. He earned that break by going for his shots and not giving Rafa time.

    Reply

          • Fourth winner to break at love came after a weak second serve, a short ball return inside the service box, and a final return three feet inside the baseline.

            So Rafa did nothing to deserve that service game against any opponent.

            Thanks NNY but VR confirmed my guess was right about Rafa hitting short.

            Just went into TennisTV to confirm.

  39. Rafa playing so tentative and not looking for a winner much and just wait for his opponent to make an error..poor strategy IMO and very risky..

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  40. Rafa will always be vulnerable to be have tough matches against players like Edmund. But most of the time he will still successfully break them down in the end, because he’s Rafa.

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  42. Assuming Rafa comes through this one, fighting through tough matches like this on clay should only bring him more and more confidence as he goes on.

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  43. Kyle is hitting so hard and moving forward whilst Rafa is being pushed back and made to run from side to side. I thought Rafa is usually the one making his opponents run on clay?

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  47. Phew, finally!

    Please Rafa, plays with more aggressions, please! I blame Toni for making life difficult for Rafa, when Rafa has all the tools to be a very aggressive and attacking player. He now has to work so hard to win, esp nowadays more and more players are playing big serving, hard hitting and going for short points and outright winners kind of tennis.

    The way to beat Rafa on clay is to play aggressive and go for broke! This is so far Rafa’s worst start at MC since a long time ago!

    A Zverev is liking his chances tomorrow.

    Reply

    • They said on the tennis channel that this is the first time that Rafa has ever dropped a set in his first match. I sm just glad that he got the win. It doesn’t get easier because Rafa is the one they want to beat as the King of Clay.

      It was concerning to see Edmund dictating the points and getting the better court positioning against Rafa.

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    • The problem with Rafa is that he has lost speed. It maybe miniscule but at elite levels it can make all the difference between kissing the lines or going out. It looks as if Rafa is not anticipating so well but actually it is decline in speed and not decline in anticipation.
      #ItIsPhysical

      Reply

      • However he seems determined so unless he gets injured, I am confident Rafa will win RG. As for MC, if he runs into a determined Nole or Muzz wanting to fight a marathon battle as Nole did in Madrid in 2009, he will let them win. But I think neither Nole nor Muzz is likely to prioritize this so it is very likely that Rafa will get his 10th MC.

        Reply

      • oh come on, you are really exaggerating the speed factor. So if he starts kissing the lines tomorrow against Zverev, are we to believe he has regained speed in a day? It could (quite likely is a factor) but his issue are stemming from something else.

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        • I am surprised you are making this post, vr. Not logical at all.
          Footwork and position are essential for accuracy. Just because some FHs kiss the lines doesn’t mean Rafa has regained his top speed. If you compare the number of errors he makes with his forehand these days as compared to his prime, you can see that it is significant and largely due to being not quite in position or being rushed into imperfect footwork.
          I already pointed out to hawkeye, our armchair doctor/psychiatrist, that hitting great forehands in practice doesn’t translate to great forehands in matches because of fall in speed resulting in being rushed into hitting the forehands from out of position or being rushed into untidy footwork.

          Reply

        • The fallacy in your post, vr, is in concluding that I am saying he has lost speed after watching one match. No, I am making the statement after watching him over two years. Now he has to keep kissing the lines in a significant number of matches for me to conclude he has regained his speed. So . no, even if he makes fantastic forehands against Zverev, I will not say he has regained his speed till he does it consistently in many matches.

          Reply

          • He will never recover 100% of his speed from 10 years ago.

            It’s not realistic, nor is it necessary.

            Any minor loss in speed can be adjusted for like other greats such as Agassi and Federer did.

            His confidence is all he needs.

            He looked great in Australia prior to the final. He will do fine with that level alone, especially on clay.

          • It is not minor for an elite. He would have beaten Fed at AO if his forehand had worked like before which it did not because of fall in speed. Let us see how his forehand works on clay. As clay is a slower surface, forehand may work better than on HC. At least I hope so.

          • It is minor in the context of what I said.

            Rafa lost to Fed very similarly to how he lost to Djoko in 2012 AO deciding set up a break and having a mental lapse in the fifth.

            In 2012 because he was feeling the pressure of finally solving Nole after many losses in 2011.

            In 2017 because he was feeling the pressure of finally solving the crippling anxiety along with injuries that stopped him from winning slams for almost three years.

          • He was physically in a position to win both.

            He hasn’t played near as well after losing the AO final other than a couple of matches.

          • And one needs to look no further than the game that Rafa was broken to live in the third set where he played tentative and hitting short when not under pressure in the rally.

            It had nothing to do with speed as he wasn’t even chasing down balls.

            100% mental.

          • Physically his speed has come down. His forehand is not as reliable as before because he is forced to hit it from less than the ideal position. Mental depends on his physical state. If he can trust his body to play as he wants, confidence is not an issue.

          • I go by the difference I see in Rafa between how he plays from behind vs how he plays with a lead.

            It is very different from that comparison when he plays with confidence.

            We just have differing takes obviously.

          • Agassi is a special case. Anyone who reads his autobiography knows that the main factor in his late resurgence was simply motivation.

            Federer was following the same downward trajectory as Nadal in 2011-13 until he switched rackets in early 2014. Also, his game is more attack-oriented and never depended on foot-speed to the extent that Nadal’s does.

  48. One thing about Rafa, he tends to struggle when playing against a player for the first time – Nishioka, Kyle, A Zverev (at IW last year); Kyrgios at Wimbledon; Dustin Brown; Rosol….

    He just can’t play with all guns blazing when facing a player for the first time and has to make life difficult for himself! Had he continued or maintained his focus in the second set and not letting Kyle broke back after losing serve, Rafa would be winning the match comfortably, maybe 6-0, 6-3 or 6-4 and saved himself an hour or so of time and energy to rest and prepare for his next match.

    As always, he does things the long way, no short cuts, and it’s taking its toll on his body and mind. I think all his potential opponents here will take notice of this match and play like Kyle does, whether it’s their natural way of playing or not; Rafa’s life is getting very tough here!

    I remember when Ferrer played against Rafa on clay, Ferrer just went all out attack, Monfils did that too in last year’s final, for a set and won that set. Rafa is allowing his opponents to dictate play and thus has to work so hard to win, typical counter puncher mentality.

    Reply

    • It is true that Rafa tends to have a tough time when he plays someone for the first time.

      It is unfortunate to see him having to go free sets in this match. He let Edmund into this match after getting the first set bagel. Rafa is making it hard for himself by having to stay on the court longer.

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  49. I just wonder,if he keep playing like this,can he survive Novak,Andy or wawa in semis or final?Is he still got a leg to pull a win later?Clay or not?

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    • no he won’t keep playing like this. If he somehow does, then he will be out. He has played better on hard courts even so I am hopeful he will better on clay. If he wins tomorrow, it will be a crucial victory.

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      • But VR, everyone is playing aggressive tennis these days, esp seeing Rafa across the net. Zverev, Dimi, Monfils and Fed at the AO, Querrey at Acapulco and now Kyle; life is getting tougher and tougher for a player like Rafa.

        I mean I just can’t understand Rafa’s mentality these days, why when he sees a player like Kyle hitting hard and aggressively, he just gives Kyle so much space or scope to play his game?.

        Rafa in 2010 was also entering MC without winning a title in ten months,but back then, he played with aggression despite not being confident with himself or his game. He simply swept everyone away in that tournament and giving Verdasco just one game in the final. It’s not like Verdasco was playing badly; he was also attacking and hitting hard but Rafa could neutralize it with his own aggression. I mean you won’t be playing defensive or counterpunching tennis when you only allowed your opponent to win one game in the whole match. He was also aggressive throughout the whole tournament and losing only 14 games the whole tournament.

        Right now Rafa is playing really counterpunching tennis despite time and again he said he has to play aggressive tennis. In this match, he kept hitting CC to Kyle’s BH when Kyle was already there waiting. It seemed that Rafa was running out of ideas how to counter Kyle’s aggressive game. Why not played some one two punch tennis? Or stepped inside the court to hit his FHDTL to Kyle’s FH corner when Kyle was waiting at his BH corner? Why kept hitting CCto Kyle’s BH and got burnt when Kyle could hit big winners CC or even DTL almost always?

        If Rafa continues to play counterpunching tennis vs Zverev tomorrow, I see him going home early. I’ll rather see Rafa fight tooth and nail from the get go and throughout a match, then see him wins the first set easily, and then loses intensity, relaxes and then loses the next set. At least fighting tooth and nail, most probably his opponent would have played his max level and may not be able to raise his level any further but as we know Rafa can always raise his when his back is against the wall.

        Reply

        • Lucky…U said it well of what i have in my mind!..I mean,Rafa certainly would lose at some stage if he keep playing like this..just running around and get the ball back won’t give him the win anymore..he will get tired when he reach semis or final..and then lost to his opponents there because of the same reason like he lost in all his previous final..UNLESS he changed his game now and be aggressive…It’s CLAY for heaven’s sake!YOUR DORMAIN!!

          Reply

        • @lucky 5:07pm,

          Rafa did not have the wrong tactics. BH is Edmund’s weakness and all Rafa needed to do is exploit it and force him to make errors from that side! It’s well known fact that Edmund’s FH is strong and as we have seen copes well against Rafa’s BH..,Rafa rarely hits BH winners so if he was going to win the point with the winner he was obviously more comfortable to put a pressure on Edmund BH with his FH. The problem arises when Rafa hits short allowing Edmund to run around his BH and hit FH instead. Also in the second set when Rafa allowed to be broken back Edmund gained confidence and played way better, even his backhand was clicking, and it was mainly because Rafa donated numerous short balls…however, luckily Edmund could not sustain this level for long, while Rafa started hitting deep again and the order was soon restored…

          It’s not the wrong tactics, it’s the execution that fails…I do think Rafa needs to mix it up when the opponent starts playing with confidence and belief by going to the net more often and hits more agressively…but Rafa prefers to stick to the original tactics which worked perfectly in the first set waiting for Edmund’s level to drop a bit to take advantage of it.. It forces him to work harder and spend more energy but it paid off in the end…that’s how Rafa has always been…it is just that now that he has lost some of his power and speed execution becomes more difficult and small lapses and errors here and there easily cost him matches…

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      • I hope they are practicing mental strength.

        RT (translated):
        In 400 matches on clay, Nadal lost only 34. His winning percentage (91.5 %) is the best in history on Earth.)

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      • A sign of Rafa not being confident; that he has to go practicing immediately after a match.

        Seriously, his serve is awful! How many times he misses his first serve and having to serve a second, his opponent returns it with interest! And that’s why he kept losing his serve in this match even after breaking his opponent’s serves.

        He may be hitting his FH well in practice, but that doesn’t help if he can’t hit it well in actual matches, when he gets wrong footed, or being pushed out wide or being pushed back and was forced to hit his FH when out of position. Imo, the main thing is: don’t let his opponent dictate points; he should use his own strength – be it his foot speed or footwork; his raw power, or his court positioning – to dictate and push his opponents out of positions instead. He was doing that in the past, it seems he has lost some of those abilities now as he grows older, and also is playing with low confidence.

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        • Totally agree. Rafa seems to refuse changing his game plan even when he is on the losing end…his court positioning is not as it used to be. His footwork and his power make an issue when facing hard hitting opponents, since Rafa does not seem quite capable of counter attacks as he did in the past…on top of it, Rafa’s serve betrayed him big in this match…facing Edmund for the first time was one additional disadvantage…

          However, all the top players struggled in their first clay court match so let’s hope Rafa only needed some adjustment time and will be ready for Sasha…

          Vamos Champ!

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  51. I really hope Rafa and Novak make the semis, cuz I’m dyin’ to see a Rafa/Djok clay match again! I feel like that match would be so key to each of them, confidence-wise, for the rest of the season going forward, especially clay season. Novak is desperate to restart his game after close to a year of slumping. Rafa is surely desperate to finally turn around his losing streak to Novak, and gain the upper hand going into Roland Garros. Plus, imo, this is the best chance that Rafa has had in a while to end the losing streak, given that he has played better than Novak this season, and that Monte Carlo is his playground. Considering how close Rafa was to taking sets in their last few matches, I think Rafa’s recent Novak struggles are largely mental. Since Novak appears to be having mental issues himself these days, what a great opportunity for Rafa to reassert himself over Novak! For these reasons, mixed with the fact that Novak is desperate to reassert himself, I find the possibility of them meeting in the semis “mouth-watering”, as the commentators like to say. 🙂

    Reply

      • I always found potential Fedal outdoor matches “mouth watering” too from 2008-2014 when Rafa won 15 of 17 matches,

        I don’t find any Rafa matches “mouth watering” these days. Been a few years now. With few exception, I find them nerve wracking and mostly unrewarding.

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  52. As anticipated Murray was pretty rusty but nothing a can or two of WD40 wont put right 😉

    As for Rafa not dropping a set on the way to the final I said yesterday IMO that was a tad over optimistic. Still I was surprised Edmund managed to take Rafa to three sets but top players often have difficulty against someone they’ve never played before.

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  53. None of the top players impressed me so far. It may be due to the change of surface from HC to clay so everyone is adjusting.

    A Zverev was winning in straight sets but his opponents weren’t playing impressive tennis and so he beat them easily. Thiem’s win over Haase wasn’t easy even though he won in straight sets.

    Djoko, Stan, Rafa, all went three sets. Berdych even lost a set to old man Haas. Dimi is struggling now. Murray was poor even though he won in 7-5, 7-5. Agut lost; Goffin was struggling initially against Almagro and was 5-1 down in first set before Almagro went away and so Goffin won in straight sets.

    Not very good tournament for the top guys this MC.

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  54. Oh dear, Dimi crushes out! Not looking good for Dimi thus far, keeps losing early at the Masters. I have him reaching and staying in top ten this season, not looking likely if he keeps losing in first or second rounds at the masters.

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    • It’s true that no one is looking particularly great right now. Rafa has set the bar so high at this event that it’s shocking to see him drop a set to Edmund.

      I couldn’t believe it when I saw Dimi lose to Struff! He started out so well at the AO, but has seemed to cool off.

      You don’t have to play your best in your first match. The key is to win, which Rafa did. So did Murray, Novak and Stan. Now we have to see if they can raise their level of play.

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      • Most probably they will as they usually do. But I’m not sure if any of them will win this tournament. I think Thiem has a real chance.

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  56. I know this sounds odd but I was actually happy Rafa got tested today. I think the additional hour on court gave him some needed practice on clay. He will be in fine form by the time RG comes along!

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    • I actually found myself thinking the same thing after the match. Initially, my thought was that Rafa had to expend energy on a match that should have been a routine win. But the more I thought about it, the more I started to think that maybe it was better for Rafa to be tested and have more time on the court to get his feet under him. I go back and forth between not wanting Rafa to exert himself too much, or getting tested and pushed in his first match and maybe getting a chance to gecthe feel if his shots and work out the kinks a little.

      Given that Rafa has Zverev up next, maybe going up against Edmund’s big forehand was good practice.

      We will have to see how it goes when Rafa faces Zverev. But at this point I am hoping that the extra time on court in this match was well spent.

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  57. Just finished watching the tape. As I expected, Nadal’s problems are not easily solved by moving onto clay. His reduced lateral movement tells on both wings, though more on the FH. To be sure, Edmund has got some game, and after that awful first set (doesn’t get much worse than 15 UE in 6 games), he really upped it. When he played well he played very well. His inside out FH is terrific, though he needs to learn to hit it down the line. He had his chance in the last set, up 2-1 with the break point, but Rafa played the big points better in that last set, as you’d expect from a champ.

    Rafa is obviously lacking confidence, but anyone who thinks that’s all he lacks isn’t looking hard enough. He still has the FH and even BH weapon, but (like many players as they age) he has to start trying to hit the winner earlier in the point. The days of Nadal simply out-grinding the opponent are either over or they are going to be very few and far between. Counter-punching isn’t going to cut it, even on clay. Objectively, I didn’t see anything to change my mind about his MC prospects. He may eke out a 3 set win against Zverev, but he could as easily lose it. IMO, Nadal’s 2017 highlight was the AO match against Dimitrov (the match of the tournament). His overall level since then has been consistently lower.

    Reply

    • Anyone who thinks that Nadal “simply out-grinded” his opponents at his peak are those that intentionally belittle his game or know little about tennis.

      In this case, it just happens to be both.

      And you should sell that VCR.

      Just more of the same from a dime-a-dozen fedfawn suffering from Fedal PTSD.

      Sad.

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    • Joe…I agree with u..yeah,looking Rafa at AO makes me dare to hope that he has a chance to win FO but looking at him NOW,i seriously doubt it..Unless like i said up there..be agrressive..but,yeah..it’s hard to do that when you’re lack of confidence…let’s see how he’s gonna fare for the rest of the tournament and for the rest of the clay tourney before FO…

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      • Mira, why do you doubt Rafa? Don’t you know at the FO, Rafa will be a different animal?? Look, he can lose to Djoko at MC or Rome in the past, but once it comes to the FO, Rafa plays differently, a lot more aggressive, if not how could he win the FO for five consecutive times, beating Sod, Fed, and then beating Djoko in three consecutive years?

        MC is not the FO, Rafa uses it as a warm up. Of course winning at MC is important for his confidence too, but not winning it he still has chances at others like Madrid, Barcelona and Rome emote the FO. He lost at MC in 2013 and 2014 but still won at the FO, don’t forget that.

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        • Lucky..yeah,i know Rafa certainly capable of turn things around in a blink of an eye..like u,i also followed Rafa for a long time now..BUT,so far..from what i’ve seen[after AO]..he still shackled by a few things such as lack of confidence and anxiety/nervous..he seems unable to past those walls when it mattered the most..until he showed that he can beat those demons,i’m not going to hope much…

          Lucky..yeah,he can win 5 consecutive times and everything else but THAT was BEFORE he injured his back in 2014 and everything falling down after that..what we see now is the new Rafa..a Rafa that is trying to build his game back from the scratch..of course it’s going to be hard..Rafa himself already said,that it’s impossible to see The Rafa of 2008,10 and 13 anymore…BUT,i also said up there that i’m going to see how he’s gonna fare for the rest of the tournament…HE’S RAFAEL NADAL after all..playing on clay for him just like throwing a fish into the water..that’s how natural he is..but he’s also needs to realize that..he seems forget quite a lot about that lately..that’s why he have those lack of confidence that led to nervousness in key moments…

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        • I hear you, Luckstar. If Rafa loses pre-RG clay tournaments, it definitely doesn’t mean he won’t win RG. But I think the question is whether that still applies to Rafa now as MUCH as it did in 2013, or even 2014. As great as Rafa still is, he isn’t quite the same player he was a few years ago. Personally, I still think he is the most likely to win RG this year. But it’s certainly more acceptable to at least be concerned if he doesn’t win a lead-up tourney than it was pre-2015…

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    • Come on Joe, Rafa won the first set 6-0! He was doing everything right. It’s just that Kyle had nothing to lose after that and so he went for broke all the way in set two and three.

      Rafa’s intensity dropped a bit in set two, he broke Kyle’s serve early in set two and should sail home easily after that, but Rafa as usual always had a letdown in set two nowadays. When Kyle was hitting like there’s no tomorrow, not many could counter that. Plus, Rafa was serving poorly in set two, losing his serves twice and one of which while serving to stay in set two.

      He was still breaking serve and got broken in set three, but he did raise his level of play nearing the end of the match. He was forcing Kyle to make errors by hitting one more ball all the time, it’s typical of his counter punching mentality.

      Rafa at least could think clearly at crucial moments; not being tense or messed up; that’s something positive. One clay, Rafa always plays point construction tennis as it’s the best surface to play counter punching tennis. He will not go for first strike tennis that’s for sure, but he could play something like the first set and I hope he could sustain his intensity a bit longer to win in straight sets going forward.

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    • Joe seems to expect Rafa to turn into an attacking player as Rafa grows older! It’s not going to happen!

      Rafa will use his guile to win his matches, like he did in this match with Kyle. Why do you think it’s so difficult to beat Rafa esp on clay? Rafa makes things difficult for his opponents (and sometimes for himself). He won’t play hard hitting tennis, and he not play first strike tennis, so he’s not to your taste.

      But, Rafa will make things difficult for his opponents and that’s for sure unless Rafa himself is playing poorly. Rafa wasn’t playing poorly in this match, he just lost his concentration in set two and so letting Kyle back into the match. He was serving relatively poorly though, esp his second serves. Once he got his first serves in, he usually won the point.

      This match may serve as a wake up call for Rafa, if he loses concentration or can’t sustain his intensity, he will get into trouble and has to spend more time on the court, not something desirable as he still has a long clay season ahead.

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      • Lucky, you’re right that I prefer attacking tennis. But I honestly also believe it’s Nadal’s best chance as he grows older. Sure, he will use guile, and today he gutted it out. He was better in the big points. But when Edmunds was playing well, I thought Rafa struggled to stay with him. I haven’t checked the stats, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Kyle won a decent % of longer points (at least, that’s how it seemed to me). If that becomes a trend, for Nadal or any older player with his type of game, I think they need to consider some changes that will shorten points.

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        • Cart before the horse Joe Smith.

          Nadal’s level fell significantly and ANY player in the Top 150 (gotta get Donskoy in there) will play well, given that opportunity.

          And I can back it up. When Nadal was broken at love in the third, he hit short ball returns at or inside the service line that Edmunds crushed for winners.

          That’s all it was.

          Nadal today plays much differently with a lead compared to when he’s behind. And it’s not about adjusting his game. He simply lacks confidence.

          Rafa’s a player who, when confident, plays the point, not the scoreboard.

          But that break in the third spoke to everything that is wrong with Rafa.

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          • I agree that Nadal’s overall level fell, but I thought it was more Edmunds’ level rising in the 2nd set onwards.

            Some stats back it up. For instance, Rafa hit only 40% 1st serves in the 1st set (it went way up to 80% in the 2nd). How often does a player get bageled when the opponent only hits in 40% of 1st serves? 15 UE tell the story.

            Agree that Nadal played very timidly in the 3rd set game he was broken, and that was probably nerves. Edmunds still had to hit the winners but Rafa made it pretty easy for him.

          • I’m not taling about the first set. Any player who gets bageled is not playing his best, no question.

            The whole second half of the second set and first half on the third was the same as that 3rd set break.

            No different when Rafa was broken twice in a row in the second set.

            Rafa hit short when he wasn’t under pressure in the points in those two games as well.

            Any professional player in the top 100 or 150 would hit those winners in the same situation. (including Federer).

            And that’s been his problem since mid-2014. The dramatic change was sudden after 2014 FO. And he’s only gotten better over the last year, not worse, despite getting older.

            So age is not the main factor.

        • Long rallies Rafa would win but these days Rafa himself won’t get into long rallies often. Kyle didn’t allow him to get into long rallies anyway when Kyle was crushing his FH all the time.

          I think the next time Rafa plays Kyle, he won’t allow Kyle to do that for long, as now Rafa knows what to expect.

          Rafa can play more offensively, it’s just that he lacks the confidence to do so now! I saw him raising his level towards end of third set and was hitting with more power and depth, so it’s a matter of confidence and necessity, not that he couldn’t do it.

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          • Rafa will not be your fav player to watch, as he’s one who dislike hard hitting or short point tennis. He likes tactical play, problem solving tennis, not outright going for attack kind of tennis, even though he has all the tools to do it.

  58. More ad hominems, I see.

    Of course I don’t believe that Nadal *simply* out-grinded his opponents. I do think that his unparalleled ability to make his opponent play another ball has been a big part of his success. Who would deny that?

    It is not my intention to belittle anyone. I specifically said Nadal still has weapons; I suggested (as it seems to me many others do above) that he needs to consider trying to use them earlier in the point, as opposed to outlasting his opponent, which isn’t working for him any more.

    Why do you take things so personally?

    Reply

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